m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 1 This is the best answer to the AGNC problem.
mREIT performs best in a stable interest rate environment. Its income
decrease with higher or lower interest rate.
You have to understand that AGNC holds RMBS security. Although it is backed
up by the government, only the principle is guaranteed. At current low
interest rate environment, AGNC bought those security with a premium, 107
cents for 100 cent RMBS.
When interest goes lower, those security will be bought back at the
principle value by the gov... 阅读全帖 |
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m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 2 I am not an expert. But in my 2 cents analysis, current price just reflects
the reduced book value of AGNC. It is in fair value but not a bargin. You
could buy some not all at once. AGNC can go lower and you have to watch 30
year mortgage rate such as FNMA 3.0.
I am hesitant to buy because I am worried about spiking of interest rate,
which is very bad to AGNC's book value. 10 year treasury rate was increased
from 1.6% to 2.2% in the past month and it is possible that the rate go to 3
% in anothe... 阅读全帖 |
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k**o
发帖数: 15334 | 3 TWO的兴趣很广泛，连Single family house生意都有涉猎，手上有两千多个
SFH出租。所以比AGNC更diversify。但是以前盈利不如AGNC，不过比AGNC
安全点。
,
better
more
So |
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b******e
发帖数: 119 | 4 现在进AGNC好吗? 好像说是如果利息涨了, 对AGNC, NLY之类的不利.
分红也不是免费的吧. 拿到红利的时候股价就跌了呀.
401k 可以买AGNC吗? 我的是只能买 mutual fund. |
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m******u
发帖数: 12400 | 5 fangpi!
发信人: koko (小气蔻蔻), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: 唐三彩的agnc太厉害了
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Sep 21 12:14:41 2012, 美东)
MREIT理论上对政策的变化特别敏感，有一家没经验的机构误判了政策影响，
然后心里一急就抛售（率先抛售的人可以将损失降到最低），就会导致连锁反
应，因为现在机构都是机器交易。然后flash crash了之后，那些专做MREIT，
有丰富经验，对政策理解的更好的机构都设的钓鱼单或者有logic来对付这种
情况，就会gobble up这些cheap share，导致价格恢复正常。这些机构之间
的争斗更残酷，就看谁经验更丰富，技术更强大。
其实MREIT这个行业真的很不错，风险是有，但与那10%-15%的分红相比，算个P
啊。这个行业的老大和带头人NLY，都干了15年了，利率高也好，低也好，
反正股价也涨，分红也涨，哪有什么风险。2008年整个股市crash的时候，
MREIT都没怎么跌。最近几年冒出来的新MREIT都是NLY的老员工出来搞的，包括
AGNC。我觉得MREIT这个行业，... 阅读全帖 |
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m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 6 American Capital Agency Corp. Declares Fourth Quarter Dividend of $0.65 Per
Share and Announces the Repurchase of 28.2 Million Shares
BETHESDA, Md., Dec. 18, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- American Capital Agency Corp. (
Nasdaq: AGNC) ("AGNC" or the "Company") announced today that its Board of
Directors has declared a cash dividend of $0.65 per share for the fourth
quarter 2013. The dividend is payable on January 28, 2014 to common
shareholders of record as of December 31, 2013, with an ex-dividend date ... 阅读全帖 |
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m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 7 赚钱就好。管他是啥股。只要利息平稳，这种股还是非常的赚钱的。
从1999算起，AGNC比大盘强的不是一般般。
我不会被去年的AGNC/NLY价格跌怕的。反而觉得是机会。
以后看吧。现在至少还是赚的。
这个板上在AGNC是33, 28, 25的时候很热，现在机会很好的时候就没有人关心了，在19
的时候。可见炒这个股的人水平也就这样了。 |
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m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 8 Thank you for recommend EARN. But it is too small. I intend to buy the
leader of a sector. The manager team of a small company is often not
trustworthy.
I am always too fearful when a person should be brave. Maybe it is good
opportunities to buy AGNC in next couple of weeks. I am interested in AGNC
too. I will watch whether it will retest $25. If it holds nicely, I will buy
some to gamble because the market has faith in it at this level. The market
is way more smart to predict interest rate chan... 阅读全帖 |
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m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 9 As a small fish, I feel that I do not have time to do research on many
companies. I have to focus on a few companies having simple business model,
so you are able to analyze their risks.
AGNC is a pure player in agency RMBS.
It looks like that TWO has much better performance than NLY, which is better
than AGNC in recent year. I am not familiar with nonagency RMBS. It is more
ARM (vs fixed) like loan or has more protection on interest rate hike? So
you can save us some time to educate me.
recen... 阅读全帖 |
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m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 10 Yes this is right and this happened in the previous 3 months.
But FED is ending (tapering to be more accurate) QE.
RMBS price dropped. FMNA 3.5 dropped from 106.5 to 103.
This is why AGNC and others lost so much value.
Those companies are in the smaller book value before QE.
QE forces AGNC to buy overpriced RMBS |
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m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 11 No. When QE started last Nov, net asset value of AGNC increased from $30 to
$33 in the past six months, in addition to $2.5 dividend. But right now AGNC
has net asset around $24.5 with current RMBS price. In the end, QE is bad
for all mREIT companies. |
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s*****r
发帖数: 1745 | 12 For cash cow like AGNC, if you did your home work and have faith that it
will not do haircut on the dividend, the best way is keep on adding on its
dip with all the dividend you receive. One thing is AGNC does not have a
long history for you to track.
I have held NLY for several years, and I kept on adding every time it dipped
and I am very satisfied for the time being. |
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T*C
发帖数: 5492 | 13 亏废了，35进的agnc避险，结果大盘暴涨，agnc暴跌 |
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k**o
发帖数: 15334 | 14 MREIT理论上对政策的变化特别敏感，有一家没经验的机构误判了政策影响，
然后心里一急就抛售（率先抛售的人可以将损失降到最低），就会导致连锁反
应，因为现在机构都是机器交易。然后flash crash了之后，那些专做MREIT，
有丰富经验，对政策理解的更好的机构都设的钓鱼单或者有logic来对付这种
情况，就会gobble up这些cheap share，导致价格恢复正常。这些机构之间
的争斗更残酷，就看谁经验更丰富，技术更强大。
其实MREIT这个行业真的很不错，风险是有，但与那10%-15%的分红相比，算个P
啊。这个行业的老大和带头人NLY，都干了15年了，利率高也好，低也好，
反正股价也涨，分红也涨，哪有什么风险。2008年整个股市crash的时候，
MREIT都没怎么跌。最近几年冒出来的新MREIT都是NLY的老员工出来搞的，包括
AGNC。我觉得MREIT这个行业，真的是很bug，借发行股票来拿钱，用这些
钱去leverage，然后拿leverage去买mortgage，收利息，赚利息差，真tm一1
本万利。AGNC就是个很好的例子，一个才4年历史的公司，就靠不停地发行
... 阅读全帖 |
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T*C
发帖数: 5492 | 15 Q3 EPS of $3.98 may not be comparable to consensus of $1.08.
American Capital Agency (AGNC) board authorizes a stock repurchase plan of
up to $500M of common stock through December 2013.
More on American Capital Agency (AGNC) Q3 earnings: Book value of $32.49/
share up from $29.41 last quarter. Average asset yield dipped 18 bps to 2.55
%, and cost of funds increased 5 bps to 1.13%, dropping net interest spread
to 1.42% from 1.65%. Constant prepayment rate of just 9%, down 100 basis
points from Q... 阅读全帖 |
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j**********g
发帖数: 241 | 16 AGNC属于Mortgage related REIT,手中持有大量的Mortgage back security. Mortgage
的价格和市场利率成反比。因为停止QE的呼声很强烈，且美国目前也有能力停止QE。因
而利率上升不可避免，这样导致MBS价格下跌。AGNC手中持有的资产是不断贬值的，因
而遭到大家的抛售。目前看来，MBS贬值将是一个长期的趋势，如果打算长期持有，建
议选择其他类型REIT，包括resident REIT, industrial REIT等。建议找一本CFA 二级
的书，简单看看，再做投资。 |
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T*****e
发帖数: 315 | 17 【 以下文字转载自 Investment 讨论区 】
发信人: TrustMe (max), 信区: Investment
标 题: 弱问， 有买 AGNC 的吗？
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri May 24 13:58:51 2013, 美东)
菜鸟一只， 当时看有人推荐买了AGNC, 现在发现买的时候差不多是最高点， 现在跌了
快20%，现在怎么办呢， 是都卖了还是捂着？ |
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b******r
发帖数: 16603 | 18 AGNC跟FED的policy有密切关系，如果FED退出ＱＥ，AGNC怎么起来的，怎么下去。 |
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V*****2
发帖数: 7930 | 19 这interest rate提高后，对AGNC的影响，只有专业人士经过精确计算后才能得到AGNC
究竟值多少钱。我们这些散户大概都没这个本事，当年巴菲特就靠这个起家。 |
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m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 20 因为这个原因不敢赌AGNC和NLY。
我有CMO，这是短期ARM RMBS，利率影响很小。
其次是RMBS/CMBS hybrid, 像TWO, MFA, IVR等。
现在我只持有CMO。等fed taper后，换成AGNC |
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u******4
发帖数: 4281 | 21 Sandler O’Neill：
While stock prices and book values per share of both companies have been
adversely affected by bond market activity in early 2013, we believe that
the stock prices do not fully reflect the current risks to the agency
mortgage REIT model. These risks are: (1) price volatility in mortgage-
backed securities (MBS), (2) the overhang of what the Federal Reserve will
do with $1.3 trillion of MBS on its balance sheet, (3) other MBS holders
might become sellers, including mutual funds a... 阅读全帖 |
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m******u
发帖数: 12400 | 22 可以short。
发信人: Banlangen (板蓝根), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: AGNC被downgrade了
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Sep 16 13:47:32 2013, 美东)
short AGNC! |
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C********1
发帖数: 5281 | 23 AGNC盈利完全依赖两房，两房哪天清盘，AGNC也很危险。 |
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m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 24 CYS的季报RMBS价格上涨，
AGNC估计这次的book value会有一点上升。
其实所有的mREIT都会不错。
Hold agnc 到ER不错。 |
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m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 25 准备买入agnc了。好价格。
现在大家想着dividend cut，我在意book value.
现在保守的agnc,只能支持50-60cents dividend
cut from 80cents |
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m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 26 经济差的话，利率不会涨。
对AGNC是利好。而且AGNC的手下的债卷MBS已经涨了不少了。
而股价没有涨，我觉得是市场的ineffcient造成了。
我要ALL in 了 |
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c*****2
发帖数: 899 | 27 我一直不理解的是,利率走高的时后,这家公司的借款利率会走高,但是房贷利率不是也
会走高吗? 两者都走高的结果,我们怎么知道他的获利会降低呢? 难道AGNC持有的房贷
是固定利率,借钱却是用浮动利率吗? |
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z****7
发帖数: 880 | 28 利率走高的时后,这家公司的借款利率会走高,房贷利率也会走高，所以它现有MBS
资产贬值
AGNC负债以短期为主，资产以中长期为主，迎合了部分投资者在低利率条件下的对
利息的渴望，如果利率上升，它资产会快速贬值，借债成本会缓慢升高，盈利会显著降
低。
当然你如果看好MBS，这类leveraged公司也是不错的选择，也许通胀若干年都不来呢 |
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k**o
发帖数: 15334 | 29 也不是这么绝对，主要得看公司的灵活度和决策。NLY这个mreit的创始者，
到现在有将近20年了吧，什么大风大浪没见过，仍然年年赚钱，最少
10% dividend，2008都影响不大。AGNC是NLY 1/3的人马跑出去另起炉灶。
mreit利率高的时候，有利率高的赚钱办法，利率低有利率低的办法。不会
不赚钱。我认为最大的问题还是fed risk，万一哪天fed突然说，你这么
搞不行，违法。所有mreit公司都要follow new rule，那就game over了。 |
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T*****e
发帖数: 315 | 30 菜鸟一只， 当时看有人推荐买了AGNC, 现在发现买的时候差不多是最高点， 现在跌了
快20%，现在怎么办呢， 是都卖了还是捂着？ |
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y****i
发帖数: 778 | 31 http://beta.fool.com/equityfinancials/2013/05/22/hybrid-mreit-d
TWO is a hybrid mREIT, the lower credit and subprime debt have much higher
interest rate so the spread narrowing is much less than other mREIT that put
most or all money on agency MBS like AGNC and ARR. That's like in current
muni bond market, the high rating bonds have significant loss this month
because of their low yields, while low rating and high yield muni bonds are
relatively strong because of higher yield, improved economy ... 阅读全帖 |
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c****y
发帖数: 3592 | 32 你看AGNC从QE3去年11月就开始一直跌，所以打方向QE还是不利于mreit.mbs价格上涨抵
消不了QE的负面影响，这是我的理解。所以如果QE结束，应该对mreit是利好啊 |
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m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 33 所有fixed rate mortgage backed的地产股多跌成死了。
goldman saches估计10年利率2014 到3%, 2015 年到4%。
AGNC, NLY太危险了。
不知你卖了吗？ |
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s******8
发帖数: 133 | 35 请问AGNC
股票怎么样?
是不是新股票?好像2009才开始 |
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E**O
发帖数: 1980 | 36 agnc ex-后股价一般调整得比1.4还要多，而填息则是一个季度缓慢渐进的过程。 |
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g***t
发帖数: 1279 | 37 风险总是有。agnc的自己如果时局不好还是会倒闭。股市里面没有免费午餐啊。 |
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R******n
发帖数: 687 | 38 These mortgage reits (AGNC, NLY) make money on yield spread between short-
term borrowing and mortgage interests.The risks are:
1. Change in yield spread. Theoretically, operation Twist is bad for them.
However, as Fed also promised to keep short-term interest low, and the fact
that people can't really refinance, the spread they enjoy won't change too
much.
2. Quality of mortgage. If there's any concern to their GSE backed mortgage,
they'll fall.
3. Short-term liquidity. They are highly leverage... 阅读全帖 |
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o**o
发帖数: 3964 | 39 今天仔细看了AGNC的Q3 ER，丫就是一个8x的MBS。26.90的book value, 每季度给1.4，
超过20%。而net interest margin只有２％多一点，乘上8x leverage, 最多也就16%，
剩下不够的只有增发新股圈钱（刚宣布了$1bln，股价应声而跌），或者拼死上利息很
高的mbs和io，碰上O8的refinance计划，就很危险 |
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s******v
发帖数: 477 | 40 几月前就心仪AGNC，但当时没钱买，现在是是否太迟了 |
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s******v
发帖数: 477 | 41 Nobody pay attention on AGNC |
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T*C
发帖数: 5492 | 42 哦，我看了AGNC的Q2 ER，利率变化应该对他们影响不大
"Given the decline in interest rates, we opportunistically increased the
size of our hedge portfolio relative to our liabilities by adding longer
term pay fixed swaps. In total, our hedge portfolio provides substantial
book value protection in a rising rate scenario," commented Peter Federico,
Senior Vice President and Chief Risk Officer.
老兄，应该把这个事情先弄明白再买它家的股票吧？ |
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m******u
发帖数: 12400 | 43 靠，提前了一个月？博彩9-13有没有QE3是怎么搞的嘛。
发信人: boylover (虎子), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: 唐三彩的agnc太厉害了
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Sep 20 17:39:55 2012, 美东)
QE happened after Aug...man... |
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k**o
发帖数: 15334 | 44 玩MREIT不能设stop，要设钓鱼单，经常flash crash，今年都两次了。第一次
更厉害，AGNC从$27十分钟之内crash到$22，然后十几分钟之后又回到$26 |
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p***e
发帖数: 1257 | 45 谢谢分享。我观察了一段时间，nly比较平，agnc走的快。可是两个buy and hold都不
行，还是有时候会突然下去。看来也要试试钓鱼单，碰运气了。 |
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k**o
发帖数: 15334 | 48 利率上涨又如何？mreit做的是spread，跟利率多高没关系，主要看spread
多大，利率最高的几年2001-2005，是mreit最赚钱的几年，这个你可以看NLY
的分红纪录。利率高导致book value下降，不一定就不赚钱，只要spread
大，就可以赚钱，然后买更多的MBS，然后book value自然就升回去了。
另外过去15年，NLY这个最老的mreit公司，没有任何一年亏损，包括2008-2009。
AGNC比较新，不过也是从未亏损过。
Mortgage |
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e****t
发帖数: 17914 | 49
不完全对
AGNC 有自己的投资策略
如果你这么说，他完全可以反着做赚钱 lol |
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J********i
发帖数: 50662 | 50 应该是到底了，昨天探25.8，今天25，都是很大的量，book value $29，股价也会恢复
到29左右，然后就等下个季报了。感觉下个季报book value会涨一些。整个mreit行业
最近被打压的厉害，agnc从35一路跌掉25 |
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