c****3
发帖数: 10787 | 1 纯属替罪羊，说明意大利问题恶化的很快。
这么下去这周意大利国债收益率破7，会怎样，全部由欧洲央行吃进，反正现在行长是
意大利人 |
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a***s
发帖数: 5417 | 2 除去色情丑闻不谈，这个总理到底做得怎么样？他下台对意大利bond
是利好还是利害？ |
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d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 4 我是有点奇怪意大利的yield这么高。 是市场对too big to bail out的恐惧。
按说大力猪总比板鸭猪强点儿。 |
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c****3
发帖数: 10787 | 5 我觉得是欧洲搞希腊国债私人持有者50% hair cut的恶果。这么一搞，象意大利国债这
样有风险的，谁还愿意买。 |
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k********n
发帖数: 18523 | 6 ECB as Lender of Last Resort Would End Crisis for Silva
Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank can stop the spread of the
continent’s financial crisis with “foreseeable, unlimited” purchases of
Italian and other government bonds, Portuguese President Anibal Cavaco Silva
said.
“The European Central Bank has to go beyond a narrow interpretation of its
mission and should be prepared for foreseeable intervention in the secondary
market, not as the central bank has done up to now,” Cavaco S... 阅读全帖 |
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V********e
发帖数: 578 | 7 爱尔兰经济危机以后实行了fierce austerity，效果怎么样摆在那里了。大多数人把国
家的经济活动和household的经济活动混淆了。作为household consumer，你要make
ends meet。作为有独立货币发行权的国家，如果private sector 有balance sheet
recession，cut spending 会导致disastrous deflation。美国历史上每次depression
都发生在federal deficit 大幅削减甚至消失之后（参考１８３１，１８３７，１８５
７，１９２９年的depression）。 |
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V********e
发帖数: 578 | 8 Private sectors are in credit-crisis so there is no hope in private sector
unless the government starts spending.
In the presence of credit crisis, either you improve productivity (through
spending) to get things back to shape hopefully quicker, or you enforce
austerity (though spending cut) and go through longer recession even
depression. |
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l****g
发帖数: 5080 | 9 意大利的 austerity plan 好似清风拂面，应该不会对赤字有多大帮助。等对赤字有帮
助的紧缩计划来了，应该还有相应的示威，政治动荡等等将要上演。戏才开幕，怎么就
说谢幕呢，太早，太早。 |
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p****a
发帖数: 4829 | 10 上周5所有人都乐观得不得了，结果今天CNBC的头条新闻全部变调了：
There Is ‘No Way Out’ for Europe: Economist
Super Committee Fumble Would Hit Stocks
Greece's New Coalition Is Already Divided Over Austerity |
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o*******w
发帖数: 2310 | 11 The global economic recovery is running out of steam, leaving the euro zone
stuck in a mild recession and the United States at risk of following suit,
the OECD said on Monday, sharply cutting its forecasts.
Andrew Unangst | Getty Images
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
----
The threat of even more devastating downturns looms if the euro zone does
not get to grips with its debt crisis and U.S. lawmakers fail to agree a
spending-reduction plan, the Organ... 阅读全帖 |
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d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 12 其实从长期历史看过去， 英国人是很重视自己的货币含金量的。 比欧陆国家都重视。
相对来说， 历史上比较爱搞通膨式掠夺的主要是法国和西班牙。
当然现在其实主要是老犹， 英国没落了， 只不过跟在后面喝汤而已。
另外对于英国来说， 欧洲范围的austerity对他来说伤害更大。
英国应该经历了冰岛那一遭以后， 对欧猪债券已经足够谨慎了。 |
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R******n
发帖数: 687 | 13 2011几乎全错。千万别把这些预测当真。
Byron Wien Announces The Ten Surprises for 2011
New York, January 3rd, 2011 – Byron R. Wien, Vice Chairman, Blackstone
Advisory Partners, today issued his list of The Ten Surprises for 2011. This
is the 26th year Byron has given his predictions of a number of economic,
financial market and political Surprises for the coming year. Byron defines
a “Surprise” as an event which the average investor would only assign a
one out of three chance of taking place but which Byron belie... 阅读全帖 |
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i*******e
发帖数: 1904 | 14 All of the latin bloc of ER will collapse with or without PSI.
They are simply insolvent. And austerity makes them more insolvent.
Even if another Marshall Plan was initiated by the US or EU, they cannot be
saved. |
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i*******e
发帖数: 1904 | 15 有没有住在葡萄牙的童鞋？能不能请教以下几点？
1 有没有街头运动的可能，should austerity was enforced?
2 媒体目前站在哪一边？有没有觉得troika贪得无厌，不够意气？
3 执政的政府里右翼多不多？会不会推翻现政府？
谢谢啦！ |
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o*******w
发帖数: 2310 | 16 (Reuters) - Greece's government struggled on Friday to agree tough labor
reforms that would appease both wary political leaders and irate lenders
faced with a rising bill to save the country from bankruptcy.
Athens is under pressure to wrap up talks on a bond swap and a 130 billion
euro bailout to avert a chaotic default, but hopes of an imminent deal faded
after euro zone finance ministers put off a meeting expected on Monday to
finalize the rescue.
The ministers instead may meet later next wee... 阅读全帖 |
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i*******e
发帖数: 1904 | 17 Greek PM Seeks To Document Costs Of Euro Exit -Socialist Official
ATHENS (Dow Jones)--Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos has instructed the
country's finance ministry to document the economic consequences of
abandoning the euro, according to a senior Socialist party official Monday.
Speaking in a radio interview, Socialist party spokesman Panos Beglitis said
Papademos had asked for the report in a meeting Sunday with the three
political party bosses backing his coalition government.
"It was as... 阅读全帖 |
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i*******e
发帖数: 1904 | 18 不一定，今天跟一个刚去完davos的教授聊了一下。他认为希腊人民是相当
revolutionary的，就算政治家能达成一致，他们连续的罢工也能把政府赶下台。（请
参考昨天罗马尼亚PM下台的案例。) 但是去davos的经济学家普遍比较悲观，而去那的
银行家普遍比较乐观。不知道谁会笑到最后？
他认为希腊default的结果是大家expected，不是那么可怕。最可怕的是西班牙，失业
率已经20％，搞不搞austerity都要recession。一衰退，债市可就不买你的账了。
总之，这次的危机就是一次competitiveness 的reshuffle。水浅的时候，你才知道谁
在裸泳。
那哪些国家在裸泳呢？西班牙，意大利，印度，中东贫油国，美国部分地区。
美国的structural problem是由房市造成的。其实有些地区（如湾区）还是有新工作创
造出来的，可是萧条地区的美国人的房子资不抵债。这样他们就不能卖房子搬家，搬到
有工作的地方去。这造成了labor market的rigidity和failure。所以，只要房市不大
幅回暖，就业市场也就不会大幅提升的。
青蛙们请注意：经济层面的分... 阅读全帖 |
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i*u
发帖数: 299 | 19 Market pullback kicked-off as Greece delay on its austerity measure approval
. European uncertainty weighted over U.S. treasury, the intermediate-term
note yields rose over 15% for the week. Rally in rates benefited commodities
price as it was the only sector finished in positive among major benchmarks
. Meantime the Russell 2000 gave up the most after five consecutive weeks of
rallies, and the S&P500 declined slightly relative to last Friday's close.
Market will continue to focus on Europe next... 阅读全帖 |
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j*****h
发帖数: 3292 | 20 这一条最近谈的比较多， 基本上给的Austerity在逼希猪自已走这最后一步
然后有了自已的货币，建议贬50%，再重新发展，基本上大家的分析是：如果这样，希
猪们下面几年是拿非洲的工资进行瑞典的消费，政治风险极大，在这种情况下，代表流
氓无产者的会上台，而且第一个离开欧盟后，整个欧洲开始出现分裂和政治动荡
7. 希腊为何不索性退出欧元区，恢复原来的货币德拉克马？希腊可以让货币贬值，重
获自主权，还可以恢复增长。英国1992年退出欧洲货币联盟后，经济得以蓬勃发展。土
耳其不是欧盟成员国，但也没有受到什么不利影响。五年前土耳其加入欧盟的谈判受挫
，但到目前为止他们的经济形势和股票市场走势比欧盟要好得多。 |
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i*******e
发帖数: 1904 | 21 SYDNEY (MarketWatch) -- Germany and other European nations may not be
prepared to fully approve a 130 billion euro ($172.1 billion) bailout for
Greece at a meeting set for Wednesday, the Financial Times newspaper
reported late Monday, citing officials. Germany and other euro-zone nations
were unconvinced Greece would undertake austerity measures demanded by the
bloc's finance ministers in order to receive more funding, the report said.
If full approval is not obtained at the meeting on Wednesday... 阅读全帖 |
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V********e
发帖数: 578 | 22 基本面扎不扎实不是几个非农数据（lagging indicator）可以糊弄的。欧洲强行搞
austerity只能是政治上的姿态，经济危机最终会波及北欧。经济周期不是几个政客说
改就可以改的。不过股市不是总跟着基本面走的。
美股也不是总是anti-dollar，今天就是个例子。现在最重要的不是预测，而是操作。 |
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k********n
发帖数: 18523 | 23 Italians Get Sticker Shock at the Pump
March 30 (Bloomberg) -- Enrico Cioni, a 36-year-old high school teacher who
lives near Venice, bought himself a red Alfa Romeo MiTo in 2010, figuring
the sporty little hatchback would be fun to drive and save on gas. Instead,
as Italy raised gas taxes 24 percent over the past year, his fuel spending
soared to 200 euros ($267) a month.
“I don’t have any alternative during the week, as I have to drive to reach
the two schools where I teach”, Cioni said by pho... 阅读全帖 |
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B*******n
发帖数: 20645 | 24 no disk space, mitbbs is under austerity. |
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n**********d
发帖数: 270 | 25 今天大跌,短线看似超跌,中长线看未必.从四月中开始美股震荡向下,而欧股先行一
个月.目前看来,从经济基本面讲,经济一时半刻没有转好的手段.不管是austerity还是
QE/OT,都不太可能有效刺激美国国内就业.首先,世界各个地区都普遍存在growth的问题
,全球经济处于前所未有的低谷;其次,QE/OT无力直接有效的刺激经济活动.从技术层面
讲,美股nasdaq composite YTD尚有+3%的收益,英法德日等国股市YTD均已收红.可以想
见,作为总统竞选年,FED采取进一步monetary手段的可能性很大.但是效果是不是还象以
往几次那样有效,还得看.尤其欧洲的问题不单单只是经济上的,还是政治上的,这就更加
增加了世界市场的不稳定因素.
另有一点似乎也可以说明一些问题:四五月份ER的时候,很多公司Earning/Revenue beat
expectation,但因为12年整年预期下调而股价大跌.所以很多大公司已经在未雨绸缪了.
所以如果市场就此转头北上,也不是没有可能,但是需要的动能相当之大.现在猜低,我感
觉有点太早.三个到六个月也许更好. |
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s******8
发帖数: 4192 | 26 不要全民公决，不过肯定是赖着不走，最后被德国踢出去。他自己可不想退出。选举只
是选合作还是不合作austerity。合作呢，可能德国还想救一把，不合作呢，肯定被踢
出去。 |
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i*****1
发帖数: 670 | 27 From CNBC
Greece's conservative New Democracy party was barely ahead of radical
leftist Syriza party in an election that could decide whether the country
stays in the euro zone, a joint exit poll by five pollsters showed on Sunday.
The poll showed New Democracy taking between 27.5 percent to 30.5 percent of
the vote, while SYRIZA was just behind with 27-30 percent. They were
followed by the PASOK Socialists taking 10-12 percent of the vote.
Syriza has vowed to tear up the terms of a joint Europe... 阅读全帖 |
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b******r
发帖数: 16603 | 28 As expected, German will send congratulating gifts to new dem by loosening
austerity measures. |
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h***e
发帖数: 20195 | 29 【 以下文字转载自 Military 讨论区 】
发信人: wayofflying (小破熊), 信区: Military
标 题: 雅虎上米国、三哥和小日本的评论
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Jun 17 13:31:15 2012, 美东)
米国网民的评论。这是美国雅虎上面的：
?
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Arctic fox ? 16 mins ago
Now are they, like Americans and Russians, going to wonder around the
Earth at 300-400 km above the surface and call it "space" too? Or are they
going to higher than 600 km where the electrons and positrons ... 阅读全帖 |
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c**********e
发帖数: 2007 | 30 http://www.cnn.com/2012/06/17/world/europe/greece-election/inde
Athens (CNN) -- The leader of Greece's center-right, pro-bailout New
Democracy party claimed "a victory for all Europe" after a first-place
showing in Sunday's parliamentary elections, promising that unpopular
austerity measures "will bring the country back to prosperity."
New Democracy's Antonis Samaras now finds himself facing a new round of
coalition talks, six weeks after a previous election that failed to produce
a government. ... 阅读全帖 |
|
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s******t
发帖数: 12883 | 32 德国人当然不愿意euro bond. 因为德国在最近十年内,为了防止债务危机,
已经大规模削减了政府开支,包括提高退休年龄,消减福利,降低工资,
降低工会谈判权力, 如果现在同意euro bond, 就是用自己消减的
福利去养猪国的高福利人口. 而猪国人口加起来比德国都多, 怎么养
得起.
现在德国要求各国austerity, 就是让他们提高退休年龄,消减退休福利
和其他福利, 其实没有过分要求. |
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T*C
发帖数: 5492 | 33 ATHENS (Reuters) - The European Investment Bank (EIB) will provide 1.44
billion euros ($1.75 billion) in loans to struggling Greek firms, providing
a stimulus to the debt-laden country's ailing economy, Greece's finance
ministry said on Saturday.
With Greek banks dependent on ECB cash to survive and reluctant to finance
any but the biggest companies, Athens and the European Union have been
pushing the EIB, the EU's long-term investment arm, to step into the breach.
But the EIB hesitated for mont... 阅读全帖 |
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k**o
发帖数: 191 | 35 应该年底会回到1450。1380不会是今年剩下这两个月的顶点。
美国经济复苏是实实在在的。欧洲是扶不其的阿斗，但是ECB的OMT防止了欧元崩溃。而
且随着德国也进入衰退,austerity measure will be replaced by stimulation.
中国十八大以后，经济刺激计划将是下一次股市上涨的开始。
现在买点CAT，石油，应该是不错的。
just my 2 cents. |
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p********o
发帖数: 8012 | 36 2013 is austerity year! for all the world.
that is why i am shorting AUD, same as basil.
[发表自未名空间手机版 - m.mitbbs.com] |
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a**********2
发帖数: 355 | 37 PLEASE Note - This is not research and is not intended as such. This has
been prepared by individuals on the sales/trading desks of the Securities
Division. This material does not represent a formal or official view of
Goldman Sachs as the views expressed herein are solely those of the author(s
), which may differ from those of Global Investment Research. All prices
are indicative only. All references to “we/our” refer to the observations
of the sales and trading desk.
NY ROUNDUP – Tuesday, A... 阅读全帖 |
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F****s
发帖数: 3761 | 38 By Sofia Horta e Costa Oct 17, 2014 7:28 AM CT
U.S. stock-index futures rallied on speculation central banks will support
economic growth with more stimulus, while Morgan Stanley and General
Electric Co. reported better-than-estimated profits.
Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) expiring in December
advanced 1.2 percent to 1,872.40 at 8:12 a.m. in New York. The S&P 500 is
down 2.3 percent this week, heading for a fourth week of losses. Contracts
on the Dow Jones Industrial Average g... 阅读全帖 |
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d*******3
发帖数: 6550 | 39 "All the evidence we present in this report shows that Greece not only does
not have the ability to pay this debt, but also should not pay this debt
first and foremost because the debt emerging from the Troika’s arrangements
is a direct infringement on the fundamental human rights of the residents
of Greece. Hence, we came to the conclusion that Greece should not pay this
debt because it is illegal, illegitimate, and odious."
Troika : IMF, European Commission and European Central Bank, which tog... 阅读全帖 |
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m***9
发帖数: 1671 | 40 盘前怎么跑？已经跌了
plan,
036
Average
Friday |
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l*****g
发帖数: 391 | 41 碰运气了，看哪个股票还不是跌得很惨，就盘前交易了。我觉得美股要有个大回调了。
我卖了之后，一段时间不买进股票。 |
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g*******e
发帖数: 3013 | 42 我今年初就不买进股票了
竟是油和气
我是不是太熊了。。。
呵呵
[在 lovesag (lovesag) 的大作中提到：]
：碰运气了，看哪个股票还不是跌得很惨，就盘前交易了。我觉得美股要有个大回调了
。我卖了之后，一段时间不买进股票。
：
：........... |
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l*****g
发帖数: 391 | 43 那你太明智了，这半年看看很多人买股票都赔了多少钱啊。油股我觉得明天会跌。 |
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g*******e
发帖数: 3013 | 45 我不做油股
一直看跌油股 觉得还没到它们的机会
纯油和气
呵呵
[在 lovesag (lovesag) 的大作中提到：]
：那你太明智了，这半年看看很多人买股票都赔了多少钱啊。油股我觉得明天会跌。
：
：........... |
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a********f
发帖数: 444 | 46 明天不一定大跌，e-mini时常和第二天走势相反。 |
|
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l*****g
发帖数: 391 | 48 我是觉得大盘阶段性回调的日子快到了。所以，我近期不再买入股票了。 |
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I***a
发帖数: 13467 | 49 没清完，犹豫了一下，
留了一点中钙，
不知道明天会不会被菊爆 |
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g*******e
发帖数: 3013 | 50 都进的话
早就发了
不过3x不能贪
所以木有
[在 IDjia (酱油兔) 的大作中提到：]
：
：太牛了，赚翻了吧
：........... |
|
