a****1
发帖数: 654 | 1 GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd. will invest HK$17.7 billion ($2.3 billion) in
polysilicon and wafer factories in China during this year and next, the Hong
Kong- based manufacturer said today in a statement.
Bad news for LDK |
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s8
发帖数: 424 | 2 这个我承认， GCL比LDK搞得好不少。
但股价LDK的估值比GCL少了太多.
GCL硅料成本已经很低了。硅片的设备又都是新的， 效率很好。
LDK的硅料还有一年左右达到GCL的程度， 硅片设备也很多老的， 效率不高。但LDK硅
片在更新， 成本逐渐下降。总之， 一年内LDK成本方面会逐渐赶上。股价呢？如果也
赶上， LDK会有30多块，按GCL现在的股价。 |
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s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 3 Thanks for the info. It looks this company had no previous experience on
poly? Also it looks like it includes wafering? Also is it possible to get $1
.5B revenue from a 6000MT poly plant? Err...
Unless both GCL and SOL are making scams, this new comer will be totally
screwed up. I'm still a little skeptical on GCL and SOL's numbers, but I don
't think a new player paying a lot more reduces GCL and SOL's credibility. |
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a****1
发帖数: 654 | 4 太阳能现在又处在暴利期. 尤其是做上游的.
GCL(中能,香港上市), 今年Q3 的gross margin 是44%, 比FSLR 还高. GCL 去年本来要
到美国 IPO的, 但美国经济不好, 几个月也没有成功. 最后中投 投资了55亿人民币(20
% 股份), 去了香港上市.
美国这边做上游的. LDK和SOL Q3 ER 预期很好. 垂直整合的象YGE, TSL, 也不错.
偏下游的, JASO, SOLF, STP 可能会差一点.
今年太阳能肯定是不差的了, 明年就很难说了, over capacity 是个大问题 |
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a****1
发帖数: 654 | 5 gross margin is still not good (22%).
compared with its peers, such as GCL (44%). sol (32%)
LDK still have lots of issue with the 'cost of wafer'
Cost of wafer:
LDK Q2 0.31$/w
sol Q3 0.25$/w
gcl Q3 0.31$/w
LDK will produce 2.5GW wafer 2010. one penny saving in wafer = 25 million$
profit.
need listening to CC for the cost of wafer in Q3. |
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s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 6 If you are a serious solar investor, I'd like to share my 2 cents.
I notice that the CAPEX requirement for a poly plant has come down
dramatically recently which makes the value of LDK's poly plant dramatically
overvalued on its book.
LDK carries some $2B debt for its 16000MT poly plant (which is still not at
full capacity yet), while SOL and GCL have implied in their report that a
similar plant can be built for $600-700M in a year nowadays.
It's true that LDK is enjoying a golden year right now... 阅读全帖 |
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m*******t
发帖数: 19 | 7 这实际不是真正的原因。 真正的原因是Nomura的分析师认为中国solar公司们自己对市
场需求的估计远大于国家计划委员会刚刚发布数据。 计划委员会估计4.2GW，而中国前
几名的公司加起来就已经6-7GW，更不用说整个industry..
http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmarketsdaily/2013/11/19/china-
ovember 19, 2013, 10:49 A.M. ET
China Solar: China’s New Policy Creates Downside Risk, Says Nomura
Email
Print
smaller
Larger
By Shuli Ren
China is the largest solar market these days. Analysts have upgraded the
Chinese solar stocks on conducive government policies and solid demands.
A new guidance published by ... 阅读全帖 |
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L****a
发帖数: 572 | 8 BYD's 5GW plan ?! where's the link ? 5GW for what? poly, wafer, or cell?
Also GCL-poly may have ADR in US market soon. I think GCL-poly is much
stronger than LDK and SOL.
too.
it. |
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L****a
发帖数: 572 | 9 这个GCL 威胁太大。关键人家还有发电站。多晶硅是最费电的。
但是GCL fully ramp up 2GW wafer 是在年底才能实现。
forever.
, |
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y*****l
发帖数: 5997 | 10 http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=341&t=CSIQ,SPWRA,YGE,CSUN,SOL
2011/03/30 阔网
随着中东及北非国家动荡导致油价持续居高不下，投资人对乾净无污染的太阳能产业兴
趣日益高涨。以下就是分析师评选的几档太阳能股。
Canadian Solar(CSIQ)是垂直整合晶圆、太阳能电池、太阳能模组及其他太阳能应用产
品的供应商。2010年第三季净营收4.53亿美元，优于去年同期的2.54亿美元。净利2600
万美元，优于去年同期的亏损1560万美元。全年太阳能面板出货量增至237 MW，优于
2009年的141 MW。第四季实际营收较分析师预估高出8.3%，但EPS则较分析师预估低5%
。公司的市场多元化策略，正在扩大亚太及北美市场，目前欧洲仍是公司最大营收来源
。以2011年每股盈余计算，预估本益比7.2倍。
SunPower(SPWRA)从事设计、制造及销售太阳能电力技术。2010年第四季营收增至9.37
亿美元，远高于去年同期的5.47亿美元。毛利率由20.3%增至25.4%。净利增至1.52亿美
元，优于去年同期的8... 阅读全帖 |
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y*****l
发帖数: 5997 | 11 http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=341&t=CSIQ,SPWRA,YGE,CSUN,SOL
2011/03/30 阔网
随着中东及北非国家动荡导致油价持续居高不下，投资人对乾净无污染的太阳能产业兴
趣日益高涨。以下就是分析师评选的几档太阳能股。
Canadian Solar(CSIQ)是垂直整合晶圆、太阳能电池、太阳能模组及其他太阳能应用产
品的供应商。2010年第三季净营收4.53亿美元，优于去年同期的2.54亿美元。净利2600
万美元，优于去年同期的亏损1560万美元。全年太阳能面板出货量增至237 MW，优于
2009年的141 MW。第四季实际营收较分析师预估高出8.3%，但EPS则较分析师预估低5%
。公司的市场多元化策略，正在扩大亚太及北美市场，目前欧洲仍是公司最大营收来源
。以2011年每股盈余计算，预估本益比7.2倍。
SunPower(SPWRA)从事设计、制造及销售太阳能电力技术。2010年第四季营收增至9.37
亿美元，远高于去年同期的5.47亿美元。毛利率由20.3%增至25.4%。净利增至1.52亿美
元，优于去年同期的8... 阅读全帖 |
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m**********n
发帖数: 27535 | 12 这小妞太不普世了，不懂得反华和反共的区别啊
Gcl Maquilan Bitoonan Ü
I hope there will be a big tsunami that will hit China! Sana may karma na
dadating sa buhay ny0!
10 hours ago · Like · Comment |
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R****a
发帖数: 6858 | 13 谁知道其他300项是什么？为什么产量搞上去这么难？
=========================================================
短短10余年里，中国在500种工业产品中的200项，产量全球第一。
来源: sleepy_bear 于 2013-01-31 09:27:58[档案] [博客] [旧帖] [转至博客] [给
我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读：141次
字体：调大/调小/重置 | 加入书签| 打印| 所有跟帖 | 加跟贴| 查看当前最热讨论主题
短短10余年里，中国在500种工业产品中的200项，产量都是全球第一。
15年前，中国空有世界第一的人口数，却几乎没有全球第一的产业。
由国家投资、租税优惠、奖励扩产、补贴购买等做法组成的补助政策，让中国产业的经
济规模在最短时间一步到位。无补贴之名、却有补贴之实的银行贷款，更对国家扶持的
重点项目宽松以待。
这样的政策，养出了全球产能第一，令国际闻之色变的“价格杀手”。
全球58％的太阳能多晶硅产出在中国；全球46％的太阳能电池产能也在中国。保利协鑫
（GCL）、无锡尚德、江西赛维、英利、天合……这些中... 阅读全帖 |
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a****1
发帖数: 654 | 14 The following news is good for GCL, LDK , DQ
Neutral for Sol, Yge, TSl
bad for STP, Solf, Jaso
Photovoltaic Polysilicon Undersupply Getting Worse
2010/10/28 By Kim Yong-ju
The spot price of solar-cell polysilicon jumped to US$95 per kilogram on
October 26, about a double compared with US$54 in June. In actual
transaction, a kilogram costs over US$100 and some fear that the supply
shortage in 2008, when the price soared over US$... 阅读全帖 |
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a****1
发帖数: 654 | 15 这个不好说, 没有确实的数据. 但是公司的毛利是最好的依据.
GCL 和LDK 的业务最相近, 同时生产硅料, 硅片, 产能比LDK 还大. 毛利率是44%.
LDK 的毛利率是22%. 去掉组件后也才28%. |
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s8
发帖数: 424 | 16 如果是近期占了他销售额的35%-40%， 我想应该是GCL， 刚扩了几个G的硅片产能。 韩
国的OCI要扩大硅料厂， 应该也定了不少合同, 不过是将来。 |
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s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 17 I don't trust SOL completely, $170-180M capex for a 5000MT was shocking to
me. But if you look at GCL's plan, that's ￥17.7B CNY for 44000MT poly
capacity plus 3GW of wafer capacity. If you take $300M/GW for the wafer, it'
s about $400M for 10000MT of poly, close to SOL's claim. Combining these
information, I think there is some realistic way to significantly lower the
CAPEX, which is starting to be implemented right now.
No, SOL will not get their money back in 7 months. $100/kg is at the high
e... 阅读全帖 |
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i*******o
发帖数: 297 | 19 申请medi-cal,如果没在美国工作过。年过65就可以申请到，如果申请人收入低。
我是在网上帮我爸申请的。我爸有绿卡。因为申请过程挺简单的，所以现在已经记不得
怎么办的了。
人要在美国才能申请。网上申请之后，county 会来信要材料什么的。
因为我爸爸有social security number，County 要求他去
social security office办了个证明说明他不能享有Medicare 。还有一些别的材料就
不记得了。
填表的时候，不要填他在国内的财产，
反正查不出来，就不要自找麻烦了。
总的来说，很快的。我爸一个月办下来的，其中包括了他申请SS number的时间。
本来申请绿卡时也帮他申请SS number 的，但是就是没收到，他到了美国之后才又去申
请的。
拿到medi-cal, county 会寄来一张白卡，就可以拿它去看病了。还会寄来收medical大
夫的名单（网上是查不到这名单的）。收到白卡一个月之内就得选一个insurance
group,总共有4个groups。
然后换纸卡。白卡好象cover得多些。
申请网页如下：
http://www.be... 阅读全帖 |
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u***r
发帖数: 4825 | 22 http://money.21cbh.com/2014/7-9/5MMDA0MDRfMTIyNjY5MA.html
21世纪经济报道 7月10日，世界杯半决赛。而本届世界杯耀眼的中国赞助商——英利绿
色能源（YGE）在此时却受到德国切割液巨头SiC Processing公司破产管理人Seagon的
起诉，已有一家德国法院接受这一诉讼，涉嫌金额总计2300万欧元。
与此同时，英利绿色能源自身的财务压力也逐渐显现，目前英利每个月需要偿还的利息
就达到4100万美元，而英利从2011年第一季度开始就持续亏损，2013年更曾试图通过开
发商业地产缓解资金压力。
加工厂的“秘密”
据Seagon表示，英利欠下了SiC Processing约2300万欧元（3127万美元）的债务，并强
调这是该公司陷入财务困境并导致破产的主要原因。巴伐利亚安贝格镇的一家德国法院
已确认接受了这一诉讼，但文件尚未送达英利。
据媒体报道，英利已在2013年10月驳斥了Seagon提出的类似指控，表示它已还清全部到
期债务。SiC Processing的破产是由于其管理和运营方面的问题，和英利并无关联。
对于英利和Si... 阅读全帖 |
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L****a
发帖数: 572 | 26 SOL,SOLF were up today. For others, they were
up yesterday.
I think the main point is that peole "think"
it's cheap.
WFR is a bit different. WFR has poly and wafer
business. For poly and wafers, WFR has both
electronic-grade and solar-grade. It's more
diversed.
LDK and SOL's current focus is on Wafer, which
looks like a sweet spot recently. That's why
GCL-poly wanted to expand into wafer business. |
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s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 27 Obviously this analyst is a bullish one, and I'm a solar bull in general too.
I agree with his sector outlook analysis, and I believe the weakened
fundamental is already priced in after the 30% sell-off (and it's already
overdone for some stocks). It's about time to buy now.
I don't know much about SOLF, but I think TSL is a buy and I just bought it.
Also I would put SOL to strong buy if the damn CIC-backed GCL-poly did not
enter the wafer business so aggressively. Today's explosive news is BYD' |
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s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 28 Rise as crazy today in a quiet market. Maybe merger rumor in my wildest
guess?
Finally I sold all my shares I bought two years ago. GCL-poly's wafer
capacity is coming on-line. Strong wafer market is not going to last forever.
I didn't plan to sell them at long term loss this year (with low tax rate),
but still, this price level doesn't make me feel comfortable now. I bought
SOLR instead to maintain my solar exposure level especially for the wafer
segment.
Oh, I don't quite follow WFR. It's ER y |
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t*******o
发帖数: 1464 | 30 【 以下文字转载自 bluechips 俱乐部 】
发信人: liliwater (lyrist), 信区: bluechips
标 题: Solar: Goldman Launches; Says Buy FSLR, JASO; Sell WFR, STP
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jun 28 14:01:43 2010, 美东)
Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Wienkes this morning launched coverage of the
solar sector with a Neutral rating on the group; among U.S.-based companies,
his best Buy idea is First Solar (FSLR), while he cites MEMC Electronic
Materials (WFR) as his best Sell idea.
“We initiate coverage of the U.S. solar industry with a Neutra... 阅读全帖 |
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