由买买提看人间百态

topics

全部话题 - 话题: retrogress
首页 上页 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 下页 末页 (共10页)
y***n
发帖数: 6764
1
怎么是坏消息?PD越靠后就说明之前的case都解决了。07大潮过后,中国本身的perm
case是不多的,尤其是09年。
可以这么说:只要07大潮能在今年暑假被解决,接下来的两年里,中国的EB2是能自给
自足的,这难道不是好消息么?
x****e
发帖数: 641
2
我看了也很担心。火箭扇,你的律师让你准备485的东西了吗?如果没有,那不是好消
息。
J********t
发帖数: 240
3
我个人认为不是松绑,而是中国EB2大致可以自给自足,如果有大量的so,我们才分一
些,如果so数量不够巨大的话,我们用自己名额也在老印前面。
S*******r
发帖数: 11017
4
假设9月放水到2008年初(算大的前进了吧)
然后事实情形是2007-2008EB2C没多少人交485(3000人左右)
这样的话10月VB总没理由后退了吧
Q*******e
发帖数: 939
5
ding!

all.
EB2
cases
y***n
发帖数: 6764
6
这个说法的问题我不在乎,底线是只要中国EB2能自给自足,我们还有什么可以担心的
呢?
c**s
发帖数: 3796
7
If PD jump to Q1/Q2 2008, I don't think OCT VB will stay there.
c*****o
发帖数: 139
8
I have a strong feeling that rocketfan is 'my attorney' he mentioned. He
might be a real attorney.
y***n
发帖数: 6764
9
你说的没错,但火箭的原意是说PD不会退到 may 07
b******k
发帖数: 244
10
In this case, does that mean if PD moves to 08, Q1, whoever submitted at
Sept could expect to be approved soon after 485 submission instead of
waiting for a long time?
J********t
发帖数: 240
11
我们的观点是一致的
本来递485到绿卡批就有半年的延迟,只要0707大潮过去了,进到08年是很reasonable
的,往回退个半年,还有什么demand,哪里有绿卡可批?
r********n
发帖数: 1162
12
My personal prediction is:
VB in September: April 2008
VB in October: sometime between Dec.2007 to April 2008
VB in December: move forward maybe 3 months or even more!
The reason for big jump in September is that India needs to build an
inventory.
Our China EB2 demand:
Before July 2007 is around 1000 maximum, out of these 1000, 20% maximum can
be ready for approval in October.
Between July 2007 and April 2008 is around 3000 maximum, out of these 3000,
20% maximum can be ready for approval in the... 阅读全帖
J********t
发帖数: 240
13
我觉得老印会,老中不会
r********n
发帖数: 1162
14
But the thing is that there will not be enough number of cases to consume
the monthly quota.
Given how busy they are, they have no time to go through the newly submitted
cases. No way to get ready in October.
y***n
发帖数: 6764
15
嗯,所以说中国EB2最让人心寒绝望的时段已经快要过去了。很多人为之已经做出了别
的选择了,是好是坏不去说,但至少有点被迫的意思在里面。
中国EB2在今后几年里,基本是属于doable的一个选择。当然有很多dynamics在里面,
情况随时会变...
说句马后炮的话:08PD是最幸运的。

reasonable
c**s
发帖数: 3796
16
For the first half year of 2012, O only needs 1400 demand. He could open the
gate again in April 2012(one more month earlier than this year).

submitted
c**s
发帖数: 3796
17
I agree.
r********n
发帖数: 1162
18
When he opens gate in April 2012, it might be too late.
It's very difficult to get all the cases ready for approval in 4-5 months.
Nobody wants to waste visa.

the
z****l
发帖数: 69
19
潜深水的说一句,这几天也老琢磨来着,10月份如果做决定的人明智的话应该保持PD不
动,让新递交的申请被受理,被分配VISA。
多谢楼主的信息!
S*******r
发帖数: 11017
20
哈哈 如果看PD密集度的话 应该是09PD最幸运吧
J********t
发帖数: 240
21
每个阶段的pd都有自己的幸于不幸吧
无论如何只要0707 大潮过去了,形式确实明朗多了,
L***a
发帖数: 3674
22
heihei
bbs上面不都是这样子么
我同事
我同学
我邻居
其实呢
就是
我____
:D
i******t
发帖数: 11048
23
其实只要07年的大潮过了,就每年交上来的那么点申请USCIS还是能够搞定的
a****l
发帖数: 8211
24
你的想法是不符合o的做法的.比如说(完全是假设),10月初一个待批的案子都没有了,然
后10月是前进了6个月,收进了3000个案子,的确在一两个月里是一个485也不会批,但是
如果o把排期停在6个月的位置上,三四个月后这3000个的大部分就都能批了,也就是说中
国会在三四个月里面用完自己全年的3000个配额.从o一贯的做法看,他是不会允许这样
的事发生的,所以他必然会退回到比如2个月的位置,这样在三四个月的时候就只有1000
个能批.这就是不倒退就没有大前进的意思.不想倒退的话,也可以,反正只前进2个月,的
确没倒退,你喜欢哪一个?
要我说的话,今年完全可以C,然后大退到07/08.对大家是最好的结果了.
希望有大倒退是因为大倒退的前面是大前进.

reasonable
l**********8
发帖数: 314
25
请问8 月份的EB2 预测会前进到多少啊? 能到July, 2007 吗? 谢谢你
r********n
发帖数: 1162
26
Mr.O is hard to predict.
He does everything based on his personal understanding. He never digged deep
into the data and facts.
We are suffering here because of his mistakes.
In the next fiscal year, it will be critical for us to monitor the visa
consumption on a monthly basis.
Mr.O may put our PD into a date that we don't have too many approvable cases
, then all our quota will be wasted, just like what happened to China EB3
several years ago. We have to monitor and push!

1000
r********n
发帖数: 1162
27
I think it's very likely the PD will move to July 2007.
s******n
发帖数: 340
28
what yr lawyer said is kind of self-contradictary.
c**s
发帖数: 3796
29
If you look at the trackitt sample data(ROW EB2) like JEW point it out, the
normal process time for a new 485 are 4 months. April 2012 is good enough to
deal with any unexpected large amount SO.
l**********8
发帖数: 314
30
你的贴很好,

deep
cases
EB3
l**********8
发帖数: 314
31
谢谢你啊!
r********n
发帖数: 1162
32
hehe, thanks!
just some info for your reference.
i******t
发帖数: 11048
33
if he is, china and india should not be binded together

reasonable
all.
EB2
r********n
发帖数: 1162
34
From the previous patterns, I believe they prefer to move PD in the last
quarter.
last year they did the same thing to family based GC.
Again, Mr.O does things based on his personal understanding, there is no way
to predict him 100% accurately.

the
to
P****S
发帖数: 2286
35
分析的没错。有大前进必然有大后退,除非O今年变风格了。
律师确实不一定比申请人更明白。

1000
b*********n
发帖数: 2975
36
//nod, hehe

if he is, china and india should not be binded together
reasonable
all.
EB2
c**s
发帖数: 3796
37
Yes. Could anyone/org talk with O to see what is his plan for AUG/SEP/NEXT
YEAR?

way
P****S
发帖数: 2286
38
USCIS肯定会把O给骂死的。就象当年07大潮,虽然前面有PD03和04的,但PD06年也有批
的。
假设9月放水到2008年初,十月还停着不动的话。类似事情又可能重演。因为上万人分
不到三千名额,PD倒退是不可避免的。赶在PD倒退之前,PD靠后的人为了一线早批的希
望,肯定会使出浑身解数,把USCIS给折腾死。
j*e
发帖数: 1987
39
标题有误导性。10月排期会不会倒退完全取决于9月排期前进多少。9月前进多,10月必
倒退,9月前进少,10月不倒退。在前提都不明确的情况下,谈10月倒不倒退没有意义
g**o
发帖数: 15
40
acectl, there is a 27% per quarter limit for first three quarters, they can'
t use more than 81% of 2800 before July 2012.

1000
r********n
发帖数: 1162
41
In October, there will not be enough approvable cases for EB2 China to
consume the monthly quota.
It't totally different from 07 event. PD06 got approved before PD03 because the new PERM system is much faster than LC.
z******y
发帖数: 192
42
re, Aug, Sep VB will set the tone.
l********7
发帖数: 1089
43
基本同意,除了08 PD的PERM申请相对难了点,被AUDIT的多,拖得时间
长。当相对等的时间还算少了,马上就能得解放了。
d****n
发帖数: 301
44
your attorney is awesome! I think this is good news for all future EB2C.
c**s
发帖数: 3796
45
PD大潮后到2008年前的,一个月平均中印需求有2200到2500人,中国EB2
每个月只有250可用。我对2012年前半年的排期非常不乐观。
YOU ARE A NICE GUY。只是讨论

because the new PERM system is much faster than LC.
y***n
发帖数: 6764
46
嗯,08PD的perm很折腾,后来09的一下子就都放水了。但08的被audit也不耽误时间,
所以从时间上来讲丝毫没损失。他们,尤其是08Q1Q2的,3年半拿到绿卡,not bad at
all! 但当然,这是可遇不可求的。
P****S
发帖数: 2286
47
07年的时候,待批的I-485从03到06都有是因为RIR变成PERM造成的。但06年的I-485比
03年的先批是因为06年的先完成了NC。当时NC拖个两年很平常。很多人靠打官司通过NC。
如果九月PD进到08年Q1停着不动,08年Q1只要比07年Q3的先过NC,就能先被批。

because the new PERM system is much faster than LC.
r********n
发帖数: 1162
48
Yes, previously the name check was a long process. Now I think the name
check is much faster than before. Additionally, 06 PD passed name check
earlier because they submitted 485 earlier than 03-04 folks. 03-04 folks got
stuck in BEC for a long time and their labor took 3-4 years to get approval
and they submitted 485 later than 06 folks. But now it's a different story
because 07 Q3 folks will submit 485 earlier than 08 Q1 folks or around the
same time. Generally speaking, the 07 Q3 folks will p... 阅读全帖
c**s
发帖数: 3796
49
It is so normal for 4 months to get a new case green. USCIS also set 6 months to get a case green no matter what is the situation of name check.
400 enough for 1.5 month VB movement.

not
400 for
of
any
y***n
发帖数: 6764
50
火箭,请普及一下:file 了485后,除了name check(FBI?),主要还要等什么?

got
approval
story
首页 上页 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 下页 末页 (共10页)