i****e
发帖数: 642 | 1 Watched a JEC game.
J
A4
AQ9653
Q965
pd RHO you LHO
P 1S 2D 2S
P 3H P 4H
AP
What could be your lead choice? | p***r
发帖数: 20570 | 2 SJ and partner would give suit preference in trump if you can't figure out
which entry he holds. So SJ requires partner to hold DK or CA.
C lead works when you may take two D, 1C, 1H, which is a long shot.
【在 i****e 的大作中提到】
: Watched a JEC game.
: J
: A4
: AQ9653
: Q965
: pd RHO you LHO
: P 1S 2D 2S
: P 3H P 4H
: AP
: What could be your lead choice?
| v**********e
发帖数: 1295 | | g****o
发帖数: 1284 | 4 I probably will try CQ or SJ.
【在 i****e 的大作中提到】
: Watched a JEC game.
: J
: A4
: AQ9653
: Q965
: pd RHO you LHO
: P 1S 2D 2S
: P 3H P 4H
: AP
: What could be your lead choice?
| i****e
发帖数: 642 | 5 Could you talk a little about the reasoning for CQ?
Just like you are playing on the table :) Don't think too much why this hand
is posted here :)
【在 g****o 的大作中提到】
: I probably will try CQ or SJ.
| g****o
发帖数: 1284 | 6 I just want to create an entry for parter in clubs if he does hold CK so he
can switch to diamond later. However, it seems an expierence declarer could
duck my CQ to defeat my plan.
hand
【在 i****e 的大作中提到】
: Could you talk a little about the reasoning for CQ?
: Just like you are playing on the table :) Don't think too much why this hand
: is posted here :)
| a****s
发帖数: 524 | 7 when parter is known to have little strength, it is usually not a good idea
to lead a singleton. Besides, spade lead may lose a tempo if we have a slow
trick in clubs.
If partner had the king of diamond, we definitely wanted to cash diamond
first. but that's anyone's guess. Normally, we don't want lead bare ace
against game or lower contract, because it only works on specific holdings
and therefore against odds. In particular, here the opps didn't force to
game, we better not go too active.
I will lead 9 of club, for if partner can ever be on lead, I don't want him
to return a club.
club lead may cost a trick, but so may any other leads.
【在 i****e 的大作中提到】
: Watched a JEC game.
: J
: A4
: AQ9653
: Q965
: pd RHO you LHO
: P 1S 2D 2S
: P 3H P 4H
: AP
: What could be your lead choice?
| i****e
发帖数: 642 | 8 It seems people have different opinion in this one. As arrows said, any lead
can cost a trick. On the other hand, any lead can be right for a hand. So
the purpose is to be correct a particular hand, but to get a better chance
based on the bidding and holding.
Previous posts showed different choices for club suit, but given your 2D bid
and with dummy's hand, pd should be easy to do it right if he gets in later.
Now, let's have your input in a different way: rate the following lead with
a score of 0 to 10, with 10 for sure choice, and 0 means not considering it
at all.
1. SJ
2. HA
3. DA
4. Cx
【在 i****e 的大作中提到】
: Watched a JEC game.
: J
: A4
: AQ9653
: Q965
: pd RHO you LHO
: P 1S 2D 2S
: P 3H P 4H
: AP
: What could be your lead choice?
| v**********e
发帖数: 1295 | 9 1. SJ (20)
2. HA (0)
3. DA (70)
4. Cx (100) | p***r
发帖数: 20570 | 10 This is pretty much nonsense. If you really want to know which lead is the
best, you should rely on simulation with right constraints.
lead
bid
later.
with
it
【在 i****e 的大作中提到】
: It seems people have different opinion in this one. As arrows said, any lead
: can cost a trick. On the other hand, any lead can be right for a hand. So
: the purpose is to be correct a particular hand, but to get a better chance
: based on the bidding and holding.
: Previous posts showed different choices for club suit, but given your 2D bid
: and with dummy's hand, pd should be easy to do it right if he gets in later.
: Now, let's have your input in a different way: rate the following lead with
: a score of 0 to 10, with 10 for sure choice, and 0 means not considering it
: at all.
: 1. SJ
| | | i****e
发帖数: 642 | 11 I don't know how to do that, but I am pretty interested in the result if you
can try it.
【在 p***r 的大作中提到】
: This is pretty much nonsense. If you really want to know which lead is the
: best, you should rely on simulation with right constraints.
:
: lead
: bid
: later.
: with
: it
| p***r
发帖数: 20570 | 12 you can try to post it at bbo's forum. Somebody might help you. My guess is
always that any C lead is a long shot to defeat the contract.
you
【在 i****e 的大作中提到】
: I don't know how to do that, but I am pretty interested in the result if you
: can try it.
| j*******e
发帖数: 2168 | 13 I think the advantage of Cx lead is: if pd has no CK but SA, you still have
chance to play SJ when you get in with HA.
So I vote for Cx.
【在 p***r 的大作中提到】
: SJ and partner would give suit preference in trump if you can't figure out
: which entry he holds. So SJ requires partner to hold DK or CA.
: C lead works when you may take two D, 1C, 1H, which is a long shot.
| o*******n
发帖数: 6500 | 14 问题是如果pd只有草花A的话，就拿不到将吃了
have
【在 j*******e 的大作中提到】
: I think the advantage of Cx lead is: if pd has no CK but SA, you still have
: chance to play SJ when you get in with HA.
: So I vote for Cx.
| j*******e
发帖数: 2168 | 15 right, right,
if pd has:
CA, you want to lead SJ, though C works when RHO has DKx
DK, you want to lead SJ
CK, you want to lead C, actually CQ is better
SA, you want to lead SJ, though C works when you get in and switch to S
So I changed my mind: SJ or CQ
【在 o*******n 的大作中提到】
: 问题是如果pd只有草花A的话，就拿不到将吃了
:
: have
| p***r
发帖数: 20570 | 16 One advantage of SJ is that you are not going to blow a double dummy trick
if you lead SJ. Also, SJ is unlikely to blow a single dummy trick (because
according to your bidding, declarer is likely to play you for S shortness).
So the worst case is that you miss a tempo. C leads can be very different,
it just has way too many ways to blow a trick and it requires some specific
holdings from opps to make C leads effective. That's why I said even
without simulation, I think it is quite a clear case that SJ should work
better.
【在 j*******e 的大作中提到】
: right, right,
: if pd has:
: CA, you want to lead SJ, though C works when RHO has DKx
: DK, you want to lead SJ
: CK, you want to lead C, actually CQ is better
: SA, you want to lead SJ, though C works when you get in and switch to S
: So I changed my mind: SJ or CQ
| b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 17 Tempo can be important though. Declarer has long spade suit which can offer
some discards, so it looks like an attacking lead may be needed. The chance
for club lead blowing a trick is not very high, since declarer cannot have
too many clubs at hand, it has to be specific holdings to cost you, such as
declarer having KJ doubleton and dummy having A. Even then, declarer still
may not be able to immediately get to dummy to pitch a diamond loser.
The problem of leading club is that you may lose a tempo to get spade ruff.
The problem of spade lead is that you may lose a tempo to get some club
tricks (or to get partner in to get your diamonds). I think it is a toss-up.
【在 p***r 的大作中提到】
: One advantage of SJ is that you are not going to blow a double dummy trick
: if you lead SJ. Also, SJ is unlikely to blow a single dummy trick (because
: according to your bidding, declarer is likely to play you for S shortness).
: So the worst case is that you miss a tempo. C leads can be very different,
: it just has way too many ways to blow a trick and it requires some specific
: holdings from opps to make C leads effective. That's why I said even
: without simulation, I think it is quite a clear case that SJ should work
: better.
| b***y
发帖数: 2804 | 18 If you are going to lead a club, I think low club is a better choice (even
better if you play 3/5th). The reason is that partner may need to know the
club count. Later when partner gets in with a slow club trick, he can decide
to cash one more club or to shift to diamonds. CQ doesn't really achieve
much, since a competent declarer can always duck it if need to. In fact if
dummy has CA and declarer ducks, partner may not know to overtake with CK
and shoot D back, so it probably misleads partner more than declarer. That
is the last thing you want to happen: operation successful but patient dies.
【在 j*******e 的大作中提到】
: right, right,
: if pd has:
: CA, you want to lead SJ, though C works when RHO has DKx
: DK, you want to lead SJ
: CK, you want to lead C, actually CQ is better
: SA, you want to lead SJ, though C works when you get in and switch to S
: So I changed my mind: SJ or CQ
| p***r
发帖数: 20570 | 19 If it is a toss-up in tempo, then SJ is clearly better because it doesn't
cost you a trick in many layouts. C leads blow tricks in many more layouts.
For example, dummy: CKxxx(x), hand: CJx(x). Declarer may have to lose two C,
HA and DA if you don't lead C.
offer
chance
as
.
up.
【在 b***y 的大作中提到】
: Tempo can be important though. Declarer has long spade suit which can offer
: some discards, so it looks like an attacking lead may be needed. The chance
: for club lead blowing a trick is not very high, since declarer cannot have
: too many clubs at hand, it has to be specific holdings to cost you, such as
: declarer having KJ doubleton and dummy having A. Even then, declarer still
: may not be able to immediately get to dummy to pitch a diamond loser.
: The problem of leading club is that you may lose a tempo to get spade ruff.
: The problem of spade lead is that you may lose a tempo to get some club
: tricks (or to get partner in to get your diamonds). I think it is a toss-up.
|
|
