c**i
发帖数: 6973 | 1 "over the next few years."
Michael Pettis, China's Economy IS Headed for a Slowdown; Beijing's export-
oriented strategy can't continue forever. Wall Street Journal, Aug 10, 2011.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405
3111904140604576498353661884930.html
Quote: "Still, consider the price of delaying this reversal. Even if
consumption manage to keep growing at the same rate it has during the past
decade, when Chinese and global conditions were buoyant and debt levels much
lower, China's growth must slow to 3-4% to achieve rebalancing. This is the
impact, in other words, of the required reduction in investment, which will
have to be sudden and sharp.
My comment:
(a) Paragraph 2 states, "China's growth over the past couple of decades was
based on large increases in government-directed investment. As a consequence
, it had to run large trade surpluses to absorb the resulting excess
capacity in manufacturing."
What it means is government-directed investment built up factories, whose
over-capacity requires foreign market.
I disagree. China's export includes low tech (clothing, sneakers, canned
vegetables) and high tech (computers). The latter are made largely by
foreign-owned multinationals, source of foreign direct investment. China's
state-owned enterprises export little in comparison (for they are not
competitive abroad).
(b) The quotation above, the third paragraph from the bottom, can be
summarized this way:
(i) "with Europe in crisis, and Japan and the USstruggling with their debt (
paragraph 3), the rest of the world can not afford to buy Chinese-made
products;
(ii) Chinese economists predicts growth rates of 6%-7%;
(iii) to rebalance conomy and turn to domestic consumption, China aims to
increase domestic consumption from 35% to 50% of GDP, which can be done only
if consumption growth rate exceeds GDP growth rate by 4% a year every year
for the next "10" years;
(iv) but this is possible only if GDP growth rate in the next decade
increases just 3-4% yearly, because "in the past decade, Chinese household
consumption has grown by 7% to 8% annually." paragraph 5.
-----------------------------separately
(1) Dinny McMahon, Aaron Back and Esther Fung, Cracks in China Housing Push.
Wall Street Journal, Aug 10, 2011.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405
3111904480904576497962651886944.html?link=sm_newsticker
Summary:
(a) The graphic shows investment in low-income homes has growned from 7.7%
in 2008 to an estimated 30.2%, of China's real-estate investment.
(b) "[C]oncerns rise that a rush to meet government targets is making for
shoddy construction fesars made more intense after" Wenzhou train crash.
paragraph 1
(c) Chinese developers are chafing at thin margins for low-income housing (2
% compared to 30% for a typical residential development). last paragraph
(2) Dinny McMahon, Chinese Property Firms Getting Squeezed; Beijing plans to
tighten access to credit from lightly regulated 'trust' firms that are key
lenders to the sector. Wall Street Journal, Aug 10, 2011
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405
3111904480904576498061399333624.html
(China Banking Regulatory commission 中国银行业监督管理委员会 (中国银监会
for short); "Trust companies are investment vehicles unique to China. They
don't take on the risk of an investment themselves, but funnel funds from
companies and wealthy individuals into a range of investments")
Note:
(a) A trust company or trust fund in China is 信托投资公司 or 信托公司.
(b) There is no need to read the rest of these TWO reports unless you have
stakes at China's real estate sector. | r****f
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