W*********r
发帖数: 989 | 1 I have spent lots of time to this graph. I meant to estimate an average time for EB2C to get their GC. But it's
impossible to get those data. So I have plotted this way. Current date v.s. (Current Date-PD). Y value is 0
means PD "current".
As you can see, the difference is growing larger and large in last five years. Only recently, it betters off a little
bit. Where it goes next? I think it should go down in next couple of years. We need to fight for our fate.
If you guys like it, I will update |
g**e
发帖数: 6127 | 2 very good job. please join NIU to make more contributions.
time for EB2C to get their GC. But it's
. (Current Date-PD). Y value is 0
years. Only recently, it betters off a little
. We need to fight for our fate.
know every event happening in the past
【在 W*********r 的大作中提到】
: I have spent lots of time to this graph. I meant to estimate an average time for EB2C to get their GC. But it's
: impossible to get those data. So I have plotted this way. Current date v.s. (Current Date-PD). Y value is 0
: means PD "current".
: As you can see, the difference is growing larger and large in last five years. Only recently, it betters off a little
: bit. Where it goes next? I think it should go down in next couple of years. We need to fight for our fate.
: If you guys like it, I will update
|
S*******r
发帖数: 11017 | 3 excellent analysis!!!
不过我觉得图中的3个高点都掉的很快，如果这是股票K线图的话，说明这3个高点都是
市场狂热情绪下的人为over-bought，最终都是要回落正常价位的。事实上这3个高点都
出现在每个财年结束时，剩余名额被分配完毕后，说明USCIS的排期说法有个BUG--不适
合岁末的排期算法。大家也不要太介意那3个高点。 |
W*********r
发帖数: 989 | 4 Thanks for point it out. You are a stock fan?
The trendlines doesn't make any sense. They are just arbitrary lines.
I think the shaded areas are more important.
【在 S*******r 的大作中提到】
: excellent analysis!!!
: 不过我觉得图中的3个高点都掉的很快，如果这是股票K线图的话，说明这3个高点都是
: 市场狂热情绪下的人为over-bought，最终都是要回落正常价位的。事实上这3个高点都
: 出现在每个财年结束时，剩余名额被分配完毕后，说明USCIS的排期说法有个BUG--不适
: 合岁末的排期算法。大家也不要太介意那3个高点。
|
W*********r
发帖数: 989 | 5 Thanks. NIU can use this graph for free:) No copyright.
I am one member of NIU already just not active there. If I think it's time,
I would like to join the 485 early
submission program.
【在 g**e 的大作中提到】
: very good job. please join NIU to make more contributions.
:
: time for EB2C to get their GC. But it's
: . (Current Date-PD). Y value is 0
: years. Only recently, it betters off a little
: . We need to fight for our fate.
: know every event happening in the past
|
I******6
发帖数: 500 | 6 Suppose no spill-over or spillover are all used by india.
You should get a converative esitmate of future. right?
Then it will not be a Question mark and will be perfect then. |
W*********r
发帖数: 989 | 7 That's what I am doing now. It'll be available next soon.
【在 I******6 的大作中提到】
: Suppose no spill-over or spillover are all used by india.
: You should get a converative esitmate of future. right?
: Then it will not be a Question mark and will be perfect then.
|
S*******r
发帖数: 11017 | 8 同意 阴影部分更说明问题
如果不改变现状的话 老印会继续吞吃我们的名额 我们会一直为每年像下蛋一样出现的
老印新申请者买单的
只能指望CIR了。。。
【在 W*********r 的大作中提到】
: Thanks for point it out. You are a stock fan?
: The trendlines doesn't make any sense. They are just arbitrary lines.
: I think the shaded areas are more important.
|
W*********r
发帖数: 989 | 9 In foreseeable future, India always have large inventory. Unless there are
big change, like this Jan H1B memo,
CIR, spillover rule change, I predict we can use only our share to progress.
But as I mentioned in another post,
more EB2 might try EB1. So EB2 can still progress until the end of FY, when
spillover and bundled with India
happened.
Any more comments? I'd like to make it looking good but I have sacrificed
resolution.
【在 I******6 的大作中提到】
: Suppose no spill-over or spillover are all used by india.
: You should get a converative esitmate of future. right?
: Then it will not be a Question mark and will be perfect then.
|
l****o
发帖数: 777 | 10 首先感谢LZ辛苦的工作,
我08.12的PD,看你图,3.5年不到4年能拿到卡? 明白人给解释一下你的图? 谢谢. |
j*e
发帖数: 1987 | 11 不是这样看的，08年12月对应的3.5年是指08年12月批的人等了3.5年。你要等几年属于
该图右边延伸出去的预测部分，谁都不知道。 |
l****o
发帖数: 777 | 12 我脑子比较弱,还是不明白你说的 "08年12月对应的3.5年是指08年12月批的人等了3.5
年"?? |
j*e
发帖数: 1987 | 13 横轴不是pd而是approval date
5
【在 l****o 的大作中提到】
: 我脑子比较弱,还是不明白你说的 "08年12月对应的3.5年是指08年12月批的人等了3.5
: 年"??
|
l****o
发帖数: 777 | |
