d******8
发帖数: 1972 | 1 转自IV，具体来源没有找到， 据说过去预测一直比较准确，不过里面关于中国5月排期
前进有误，所以对其分析有所保留，这位律师的意思是全年的SO名额可能就只有12
，000，正应了P838说的小年。
Source: An immigration lawyer's newsletter
What happened to the 12,000 new visa numbers for EB-2?
There are about 140,000 employment-based visa numbers available for fiscal
year 2011. Each independent country of the world is limited to no more than
seven percent of the total. Each of the five employment-based preference
classifications is allocated a certain percentage of the total. The second
preference (EB-2) is allocated 28.6 percent of the total.
India and China are both expected to reach their seven percent limitation in
fiscal year 2011 based on “reasonable estimates” of visa usage the Visa
Office is permitted by law. India has already reached its 2011 EB-2
allocation by April 2011 and China is well on track to utilize their entire
allocation by July. This means that India and China are limited to no more
that 28.6 percent of their entire country limitation in EB-2. Thus, even
though the rest of the world is “current,” China and India EB-2 cutoff
dates are currently set to 2006 to manage the approximately 2,800 visas
typically available under the EB-2 annual limit for each country subject to
the seven percent.
The good news is that for the EB-2 numbers for both China and India showed
movement in the latest Visa Bulletin. India advanced for the first time
since September, but only by seven weeks. China only advanced three weeks.
The State Department predicts that the 140,000 numbers allocated to EB
applicants will not be used this fiscal year. The law allows that the extra
EB-2 numbers, which is estimated to be at least 12,000, are made available
to the entire world in priority date order, waiving the seven percent
limitation. The “current” EB-2 availability for countries other than India
and China shows that the demand for those countries is met within the base
28.6 percent allocation. This means that all 12,000 extra visa numbers are
to be utilized by India and China.
However, there are currently over 17,000 persons with priority dates for
year 2006 with pending applications for adjustment of status under the EB-2
category. Over 13,000 of these persons were born in India and over 4,000 of
them were born in China. This means that even with the additional 12,000
extra numbers, no one from China or India with a priority date subsequent to
2006 will receive a green card this year. | d******8
发帖数: 1972 | 2 This means that even with the additional 12,000
extra numbers, no one from China or India with a priority date subsequent to
2006 will receive a green card this year.
好像是说，最多到2006底，不可能进入2007年。真希望能进入11月底，也有机会发包子
。 | x**********g
发帖数: 146 | 3 Re
to
【在 d******8 的大作中提到】
: This means that even with the additional 12,000
: extra numbers, no one from China or India with a priority date subsequent to
: 2006 will receive a green card this year.
: 好像是说，最多到2006底，不可能进入2007年。真希望能进入11月底，也有机会发包子
: 。
| w**t
发帖数: 893 | 4 Haha. have you seen any one single time that the estimation from attorney is
correct?
【在 x**********g 的大作中提到】
: Re
:
: to
| s****t
发帖数: 427 | 5 at least 20,000 this year. | i*****t
发帖数: 636 | 6 re
is
【在 w**t 的大作中提到】
: Haha. have you seen any one single time that the estimation from attorney is
: correct?
| p**8
发帖数: 3883 | 7 1. Good Luck! Nov has 85% chance.
2. more than 12K
3. less than 50% chance go to 2007. |
|
