p*******y
发帖数: 173 | 1 "the EB-2 cut-off dates for China-Mainland born and India, which are
currently "unavailable," will move to August or September 2007 (China may be
slightly better). It is unlikely that the cut-off dates will move forward
at all for the first two quarters of FY2013."
http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t= |
y**********r
发帖数: 2004 | |
H******i
发帖数: 4704 | 3 有意思的是文章说到500个中国EB3升级成了EB2.
但是奥本没有考虑3012，如果3012过了，排期还是要大进的。
"The foregoing prediction will be wiped out if the Congress passes H.R. 3012
, eliminating employment-based visa per country annual limitation."
其实这里的人吵来吵去，不过是以下几类：
（1）认真读了3012的人按照法案规定的比例配额预算排期前景，不知道3012是何物的
人按照实际人数预算排期。
（2）动态看历史的人相信移民法不可能一成不变，认为现在中国人会从中得利，将来
移民法改革甚至会更加合理，静态看历史的人也认为现在中国人会从中得利，但是若干
年后的中国人会倒霉。
（3）动态看职业移民发展情况的人相信中国EB2会现在从中得利，但是因为中国人大多
数是通过留学来美国的，有美国硕士以上学位，所以越来越多的EB3中国人会有资格升
级到EB2，EB2走得越快，就会有越多的EB3中国人升级。静态看职业移民发展情况的人
也相信中国EB2会现在从中得利，但是中国人EB3和印度人EB3没有区别，所以不会升级
，要倒霉。
其他几类就不说了。
be
【在 p*******y 的大作中提到】
: "the EB-2 cut-off dates for China-Mainland born and India, which are
: currently "unavailable," will move to August or September 2007 (China may be
: slightly better). It is unlikely that the cut-off dates will move forward
: at all for the first two quarters of FY2013."
: http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=
|
g*****n
发帖数: 2588 | |
p*******y
发帖数: 173 | 5 披露的时间挺有意思：6月19日采访的奥本，27日才公布。 |
a***g
发帖数: 2402 | 6 但是，如果没有了3012或类似法案，等待eb2的很可能就是灾难了。
【在 H******i 的大作中提到】
: 有意思的是文章说到500个中国EB3升级成了EB2.
: 但是奥本没有考虑3012，如果3012过了，排期还是要大进的。
: "The foregoing prediction will be wiped out if the Congress passes H.R. 3012
: , eliminating employment-based visa per country annual limitation."
: 其实这里的人吵来吵去，不过是以下几类：
: （1）认真读了3012的人按照法案规定的比例配额预算排期前景，不知道3012是何物的
: 人按照实际人数预算排期。
: （2）动态看历史的人相信移民法不可能一成不变，认为现在中国人会从中得利，将来
: 移民法改革甚至会更加合理，静态看历史的人也认为现在中国人会从中得利，但是若干
: 年后的中国人会倒霉。
|
I****8
发帖数: 988 | 7 China may be slightly better
----------中印会有不同的排期？
be
【在 p*******y 的大作中提到】
: "the EB-2 cut-off dates for China-Mainland born and India, which are
: currently "unavailable," will move to August or September 2007 (China may be
: slightly better). It is unlikely that the cut-off dates will move forward
: at all for the first two quarters of FY2013."
: http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=
|
y**********r
发帖数: 2004 | 8 我对3012持悲观态度。。。
【在 a***g 的大作中提到】
: 但是，如果没有了3012或类似法案，等待eb2的很可能就是灾难了。
|
S*******r
发帖数: 11017 | 9 刚开始用份内名额
EB2C每个财年年初都能比EB2I好那么一点点
【在 I****8 的大作中提到】
: China may be slightly better
: ----------中印会有不同的排期？
:
: be
|
p*****a
发帖数: 3634 | 10 sigh
2010PD, see you in 3 years. |
|
|
N****g
发帖数: 2829 | 11 踢皮球的本事真是高啊“•The group of cases that were filed in July and
August of 2007, when all employment-based categories were made "current,"
were all completed by November 2011, and at that point, Mr. Oppenheim's
office had to depend on USCIS estimates for adjudication of cases. Mr.
Oppenheim's office had no pre-adjudicated cases that gave him a point of
reference to determine what was left or pending.”
他意思07大潮批光了，USCIS库存数据没了，他就没有办法估计了。bullshit，大潮清
空前，有人email问他大潮清空后如何定排期，他还说根据140数据。 |
f**u
发帖数: 2769 | 12 你能找到他说“根据140数据”制定排期的Email原文吗？谢谢。
and
【在 N****g 的大作中提到】
: 踢皮球的本事真是高啊“•The group of cases that were filed in July and
: August of 2007, when all employment-based categories were made "current,"
: were all completed by November 2011, and at that point, Mr. Oppenheim's
: office had to depend on USCIS estimates for adjudication of cases. Mr.
: Oppenheim's office had no pre-adjudicated cases that gave him a point of
: reference to determine what was left or pending.”
: 他意思07大潮批光了，USCIS库存数据没了，他就没有办法估计了。bullshit，大潮清
: 空前，有人email问他大潮清空后如何定排期，他还说根据140数据。
|
N****g
发帖数: 2829 | 13 原信得问friskpipi
http://www.weiming.info/zhuti/EB23/31372929/
惊天消息！Openheim 给我回信了，关于过了07大潮如何定排期。
friskpipi
2011-07-15 11:16:45
来自: 159.53.
1
给Openheim发信，问过了07大潮如何定排期，同时建议他短期内排期大步前进 to
build up inventory。 他说：
1. 一旦排期过了08/15/2007，需要将排期推进来允许交485.
2. 他会和USCIS一同协商。看有多少Pending EB2 I-140 和他认为FY-2012的可用名额
来决定排期前进多少。（看来全C是不可能的）。
还没有给他回信，大家提建议如何回信吧。
他的原文是“Once the date reaches August 15, 2007 it will be necessary to
begin advancing the cut-off date so that filings can occur. I will be
consulting with USCIS in an attempt to determine the amount of EB-2 I-40 ‘
s which are pending, and eligible for potential filing based on the
advancement of the China/India cut-offs. That information will then be
compared with the amount of numbers which I believe will be available for
use during FY-2012, and that will determine how I move t |
p******8
发帖数: 551 | 14 Please explain more ! what 's wrong? |
N****g
发帖数: 2829 | 15 在前一次采访中他又说“•EB green card usage has been very slow in
FY2012,
so DOS is advancing the dates to see how many cases are out there. Mr.
Oppenheim is relying on USCIS and their estimate. USCIS thought more would
come in, but 50% their estimate have actually filed an AOS. This movement is
due in large part to the clearing out of the EB-2 2007 AOS cases. Mr.
Oppenheim reminds AILA that DOS cannot "see" the I-140 cases that are
approved and for which adjustment of status had been requested prior to
September 2010, though he can "see" cases for which consular processing is
requested.”
废话，140数据当然DOS没有，但DOS要跟USCIS合作定排期，而且奥本清楚知道他要准确
定排期，需要问USCIS要140数据。USCIS肯定也提供给奥本140数据，现在他却出来装傻
。 |
f**u
发帖数: 2769 | 16 奥本就是利用这种模糊性才能体现出他的价值。试想如果CP和I-140的数据可以被DOS完
全掌握了，或者“两个排期”的制度稳定实行下来，制定排期就变成可以自动化的过程
了，要他还有何用？
目前的问题看来是I-485 filing之前没法知道之前多少I-140是已被放弃的，包括EB3 I
-140升级后废弃了的。
is
【在 N****g 的大作中提到】
: 在前一次采访中他又说“•EB green card usage has been very slow in
: FY2012,
: so DOS is advancing the dates to see how many cases are out there. Mr.
: Oppenheim is relying on USCIS and their estimate. USCIS thought more would
: come in, but 50% their estimate have actually filed an AOS. This movement is
: due in large part to the clearing out of the EB-2 2007 AOS cases. Mr.
: Oppenheim reminds AILA that DOS cannot "see" the I-140 cases that are
: approved and for which adjustment of status had been requested prior to
: September 2010, though he can "see" cases for which consular processing is
: requested.”
|
p******8
发帖数: 551 | 17 what 's prediction for OCT VB? still not sure, right? |
o**********0
发帖数: 27 | 18 source: http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=17533&p=74215#post74215
"In October 2012 (beginning of the 2013 fiscal year), the EB-2 cut-off dates
for China-Mainland born and India, which are currently "unavailable," will
move to August or September 2007 (China may be slightly better). It is
unlikely that the cut-off dates will move forward at all for the first two
quarters of FY2013. If they do, it will only be if the Visa Office is
convinced that there is insufficient demand for the rest of the year. Mr.
Oppenheim's office already has 17,000 EB-2 cases for natives of India, China
, and worldwide with priority dates after January 1, 2009, pre-adjudicated.
There will be a lot of cases queued up for adjudication in October 2012, and
it will take some time to get through them.
EB-2 worldwide will be current in October 2012."
根据以上消息，中印10月排期会到2007年8月或9月，中国的排期可能稍微比印度好一些
。另外，中印排期不大可能在2013年度的第一，第二季度前进。除非Visa officer确信
绿卡名额的需求不足。ROW EB-2的10月排期会是current.总的来说，让我感觉08的pd都
可能未必消化。不过，排期的事变化多端，不要过分相信预测。
【在 p******8 的大作中提到】
: what 's prediction for OCT VB? still not sure, right?
|
H******i
发帖数: 4704 | 19 3012不过，中国EB2短期内仍然只能与升级的中国EB3共享名额，而且排在升级的中国
EB3后面，这就是为什么还有零星的07大潮EB2至今未批的原因，而不升级的EB3因为前
面的人升级到EB2了，也排期前进。
但是这是在3012不过的背景下所做的预计。
根据以上消息，中印10月排期会到2007年8月或9月，中国的排期可能稍微比印度好一些
。另外，中印排期不大可能在2013年度的第一，第二季度前进。除非Visa officer确信
绿卡名额的需求不足。ROW EB-2的10月排期会是current.总的来说，让我感觉08的pd都
可能未必消化。不过，排期的事变化多端，不要过分相信预测。
【在 o**********0 的大作中提到】
: source: http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=17533&p=74215#post74215
: "In October 2012 (beginning of the 2013 fiscal year), the EB-2 cut-off dates
: for China-Mainland born and India, which are currently "unavailable," will
: move to August or September 2007 (China may be slightly better). It is
: unlikely that the cut-off dates will move forward at all for the first two
: quarters of FY2013. If they do, it will only be if the Visa Office is
: convinced that there is insufficient demand for the rest of the year. Mr.
: Oppenheim's office already has 17,000 EB-2 cases for natives of India, China
: , and worldwide with priority dates after January 1, 2009, pre-adjudicated.
: There will be a lot of cases queued up for adjudication in October 2012, and
|
p******8
发帖数: 551 | 20 We are playing the Guess Game again. It seems the bad news come again and
again.....
Everything is unsure and let time tell us... |
g*********d
发帖数: 400 | 21 "Will not move at all in the first two quarters" is based on the assumption
that EB3 upgrade will consume the monthly quote? |
