M***8
发帖数: 668 | 1 去年年初,犯了大错:没有将退休帐号转买债券. 可想而知后来亏得有多惨.
帐号跌了快50%时,已套牢的Fund不忍心割, 只能拿余钱swing, 在11月份S&P750左右买
进, 1月份S&P920多点时出掉, 这时帐号的亏损少于10%, 但我们又犯了错: 没能壮士断
腕的all cash.
又是漫长的煎熬: S&P一路跌下来慢慢买进，当跌破700点时我和LD很郁闷，愈发意识到
09年年初未能及时斩仓的愚蠢。
昨天借着consumer confidence index的东风，我们将退休帐号all cash了，结算一下
，居然还有7%的收益。虽然跟诸位大牛比起来不算什么，但我们已经很满足，就等S&P
再跌下来做swing啦。
最后，请诸位大牛推荐几个能跑赢大盘的fund，谢谢！ | n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 2 厉害厉害。
P
【在 M***8 的大作中提到】
: 去年年初,犯了大错:没有将退休帐号转买债券. 可想而知后来亏得有多惨.
: 帐号跌了快50%时,已套牢的Fund不忍心割, 只能拿余钱swing, 在11月份S&P750左右买
: 进, 1月份S&P920多点时出掉, 这时帐号的亏损少于10%, 但我们又犯了错: 没能壮士断
: 腕的all cash.
: 又是漫长的煎熬: S&P一路跌下来慢慢买进，当跌破700点时我和LD很郁闷，愈发意识到
: 09年年初未能及时斩仓的愚蠢。
: 昨天借着consumer confidence index的东风，我们将退休帐号all cash了，结算一下
: ，居然还有7%的收益。虽然跟诸位大牛比起来不算什么，但我们已经很满足，就等S&P
: 再跌下来做swing啦。
: 最后，请诸位大牛推荐几个能跑赢大盘的fund，谢谢！
| M***8
发帖数: 668 | 3 不敢当。我和LD犯的错实在太多，写出来绝对是满纸血泪。
我们入市前读的书是random walk down Wall Street，信奉1）buy and hold; 2)TA是
瞎扯；3）退休帐号少折腾，一直往里打钱就好；4）年轻人没必要买bond。
残酷的熊市打碎了我们的理念，逼得我们去学波段理论，拿退休帐号做swing。
但我们对各个fund研究很少，想知道能beat SPX的fund有哪些，请大牛不吝指教。谢谢。
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: 厉害厉害。
:
: P
| n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 4 本来b&h就没有理论基础，统计规律而已。
谢。
【在 M***8 的大作中提到】
: 不敢当。我和LD犯的错实在太多，写出来绝对是满纸血泪。
: 我们入市前读的书是random walk down Wall Street，信奉1）buy and hold; 2)TA是
: 瞎扯；3）退休帐号少折腾，一直往里打钱就好；4）年轻人没必要买bond。
: 残酷的熊市打碎了我们的理念，逼得我们去学波段理论，拿退休帐号做swing。
: 但我们对各个fund研究很少，想知道能beat SPX的fund有哪些，请大牛不吝指教。谢谢。
| h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 5 Did you even bother to calculate how much of your return comes from DCA and
how much from swing trade? Why assume the majority of the return is from
your action rather than your inaction?
If a person with all cash account starts DCA from the beginning of this year
, he will get about 15% return by doing nothing. In comparison, your return
really depends on whether you can swing correctly.
Anyway, bear market will test who are real indexers and who are not.
Apparently, you don't believe in index
【在 M***8 的大作中提到】
: 去年年初,犯了大错:没有将退休帐号转买债券. 可想而知后来亏得有多惨.
: 帐号跌了快50%时,已套牢的Fund不忍心割, 只能拿余钱swing, 在11月份S&P750左右买
: 进, 1月份S&P920多点时出掉, 这时帐号的亏损少于10%, 但我们又犯了错: 没能壮士断
: 腕的all cash.
: 又是漫长的煎熬: S&P一路跌下来慢慢买进，当跌破700点时我和LD很郁闷，愈发意识到
: 09年年初未能及时斩仓的愚蠢。
: 昨天借着consumer confidence index的东风，我们将退休帐号all cash了，结算一下
: ，居然还有7%的收益。虽然跟诸位大牛比起来不算什么，但我们已经很满足，就等S&P
: 再跌下来做swing啦。
: 最后，请诸位大牛推荐几个能跑赢大盘的fund，谢谢！
| c*******a
发帖数: 653 | 6 啥样的人是indexer咧？俺一直在等大盘掉下来。。。hoho
and
year
return
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: Did you even bother to calculate how much of your return comes from DCA and
: how much from swing trade? Why assume the majority of the return is from
: your action rather than your inaction?
: If a person with all cash account starts DCA from the beginning of this year
: , he will get about 15% return by doing nothing. In comparison, your return
: really depends on whether you can swing correctly.
: Anyway, bear market will test who are real indexers and who are not.
: Apparently, you don't believe in index
| K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 7 //sigh, bull market will test who are real non-indexers like
me, haha.
and
year
return
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: Did you even bother to calculate how much of your return comes from DCA and
: how much from swing trade? Why assume the majority of the return is from
: your action rather than your inaction?
: If a person with all cash account starts DCA from the beginning of this year
: , he will get about 15% return by doing nothing. In comparison, your return
: really depends on whether you can swing correctly.
: Anyway, bear market will test who are real indexers and who are not.
: Apparently, you don't believe in index
| K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 8 I agree with heartinny that you need a standardized tool to
compute your yield. Without calibration, it's impossible to
tell which strategy is better.
From the SPY curve, I can tell that your retirement account
was not big at the beginning of 2008. Otherwise there is no
way you can achieve 7%, even with the market timing. The only
other possibility is that you started 2008 with a lot of cash
holding already, or you traded stocks/options.
P
【在 M***8 的大作中提到】
: 去年年初,犯了大错:没有将退休帐号转买债券. 可想而知后来亏得有多惨.
: 帐号跌了快50%时,已套牢的Fund不忍心割, 只能拿余钱swing, 在11月份S&P750左右买
: 进, 1月份S&P920多点时出掉, 这时帐号的亏损少于10%, 但我们又犯了错: 没能壮士断
: 腕的all cash.
: 又是漫长的煎熬: S&P一路跌下来慢慢买进，当跌破700点时我和LD很郁闷，愈发意识到
: 09年年初未能及时斩仓的愚蠢。
: 昨天借着consumer confidence index的东风，我们将退休帐号all cash了，结算一下
: ，居然还有7%的收益。虽然跟诸位大牛比起来不算什么，但我们已经很满足，就等S&P
: 再跌下来做swing啦。
: 最后，请诸位大牛推荐几个能跑赢大盘的fund，谢谢！
| h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 9 Maybe. But at least it is based on hundreds of years of statistics. What
makes you believe that your market timing skills can beat the market? Based
on your several months trading performance statistics?
If you don't believe in stories, why do you believe in fairy-tales?
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: 本来b&h就没有理论基础，统计规律而已。
:
: 谢。
| h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 10 No. Only being a millionaire will test you as a non-indexers. Because your
logic is very sound: what's the point of not taking risks if it doesn't take
you where you want to be?
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: //sigh, bull market will test who are real non-indexers like
: me, haha.
:
: and
: year
: return
| | | K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 11 Well, if he did a statistics on the past 10 years, it's not
hard to conclude that market timing has a very solid chance
to beat indexing.
If he did a statistics on a 30-year span, indexing still beats
market timing at this moment. However, many statisticians tend
to introduce a forward outlook from the past 10-15 years (just
like how analysts express their opinions on stocks' earnings),
as well as referring to Japan as an example. With that type of
insight, it is not completely unfounded that th
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: Maybe. But at least it is based on hundreds of years of statistics. What
: makes you believe that your market timing skills can beat the market? Based
: on your several months trading performance statistics?
: If you don't believe in stories, why do you believe in fairy-tales?
| K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 12 You are too 狡猾。I think that test will probably nail me, //sigh...
take
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: No. Only being a millionaire will test you as a non-indexers. Because your
: logic is very sound: what's the point of not taking risks if it doesn't take
: you where you want to be?
| n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 13 哈哈，知音呀。
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: Well, if he did a statistics on the past 10 years, it's not
: hard to conclude that market timing has a very solid chance
: to beat indexing.
: If he did a statistics on a 30-year span, indexing still beats
: market timing at this moment. However, many statisticians tend
: to introduce a forward outlook from the past 10-15 years (just
: like how analysts express their opinions on stocks' earnings),
: as well as referring to Japan as an example. With that type of
: insight, it is not completely unfounded that th
| c****o
发帖数: 32446 | | M***8
发帖数: 668 | 15 不好意思，菜鸟问题，想确认一下：DCA是DCA total return fund?
我在stockcharts.com上怎么查到今年初DCA要$1.8x，而这几天只有$1.6x?
我觉得我们退休帐号现在赢利应该是几次swing (mid-cap value fund)的结果，因为如
果我们什么也不做，原来套牢的几个Fund（07年高点时进的）现在还没出水，而事实上
这几只fund昨天也是割肉出来的。
请不要误解我的意思：我无意诋毁“buy and hold"长线投资理念。我发帖是想请教哪
些fund不错，因为我们对fund研究的少。原来swing主要是买卖mid-cap value fund，
现在想知道是否别的fund更好。
谢谢你的回复。
and
year
return
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: Did you even bother to calculate how much of your return comes from DCA and
: how much from swing trade? Why assume the majority of the return is from
: your action rather than your inaction?
: If a person with all cash account starts DCA from the beginning of this year
: , he will get about 15% return by doing nothing. In comparison, your return
: really depends on whether you can swing correctly.
: Anyway, bear market will test who are real indexers and who are not.
: Apparently, you don't believe in index
| K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 16 DCA:
http://www.mitbbs.com/article/Investment/31166823_3.html
She meant the formal definition.
【在 M***8 的大作中提到】
: 不好意思，菜鸟问题，想确认一下：DCA是DCA total return fund?
: 我在stockcharts.com上怎么查到今年初DCA要$1.8x，而这几天只有$1.6x?
: 我觉得我们退休帐号现在赢利应该是几次swing (mid-cap value fund)的结果，因为如
: 果我们什么也不做，原来套牢的几个Fund（07年高点时进的）现在还没出水，而事实上
: 这几只fund昨天也是割肉出来的。
: 请不要误解我的意思：我无意诋毁“buy and hold"长线投资理念。我发帖是想请教哪
: 些fund不错，因为我们对fund研究的少。原来swing主要是买卖mid-cap value fund，
: 现在想知道是否别的fund更好。
: 谢谢你的回复。
:
|
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