h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 1 A lot of the stock market movement could depend on the retail sales this
Christmas season. So I am making a prediction before the holiday season (
just for fun):
1. The overall theme of this Christmas is that there is NO deal. The stores
have adjusted their inventory levels in the past few months. When the supply
meets the demand, there is just no reason to reduce the price.
2. Shoppers will be looking for deal but since most people are clueless
about what the real deals are, they will eventuall |
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 2 Let's look back in 2010 Q1, hehe.
stores
supply
item.
similar
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: A lot of the stock market movement could depend on the retail sales this
: Christmas season. So I am making a prediction before the holiday season (
: just for fun):
: 1. The overall theme of this Christmas is that there is NO deal. The stores
: have adjusted their inventory levels in the past few months. When the supply
: meets the demand, there is just no reason to reduce the price.
: 2. Shoppers will be looking for deal but since most people are clueless
: about what the real deals are, they will eventuall
|
a**e
发帖数: 5794 | 3 You lost ur notebook.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: Let's look back in 2010 Q1, hehe.
:
: stores
: supply
: item.
: similar
|
t***s
发帖数: 163 | |
f******a
发帖数: 148 | 5 Disagree on your no1, thus all other points that follow are suspicious.
Looking at the fierce direct competition between major retailers ( Amazon,
Walmart) this thanksgiving, I have to disagree.
I suspect major retailers are trying to expand their market share currently,
since they predict the economy is going to get better, which is when most
of the money can be made.
Thus there will be deals.
stores
supply
item.
similar
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: A lot of the stock market movement could depend on the retail sales this
: Christmas season. So I am making a prediction before the holiday season (
: just for fun):
: 1. The overall theme of this Christmas is that there is NO deal. The stores
: have adjusted their inventory levels in the past few months. When the supply
: meets the demand, there is just no reason to reduce the price.
: 2. Shoppers will be looking for deal but since most people are clueless
: about what the real deals are, they will eventuall
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 6 News so far:
American consumers shopped more for bargains at the start of the U.S.
holiday season and spent significantly less than a year ago, according
to early data released on Sunday.
Consumers said they will have spent nearly 8 percent less on average,
or about $343 per person, over the weekend that includes U.S.
Thanksgiving Day, Black Friday and runs through Sunday, according to
the National Retail Federation.
While traffic to stores and retail websites rose to 195 million people
from 172
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: Let's look back in 2010 Q1, hehe.
:
: stores
: supply
: item.
: similar
|
S******n
发帖数: 617 | 7 ShopperTrak was way off in 2008.
They pumped it as +3.5% and later NAF reported it as -5%. o)<
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: News so far:
: American consumers shopped more for bargains at the start of the U.S.
: holiday season and spent significantly less than a year ago, according
: to early data released on Sunday.
: Consumers said they will have spent nearly 8 percent less on average,
: or about $343 per person, over the weekend that includes U.S.
: Thanksgiving Day, Black Friday and runs through Sunday, according to
: the National Retail Federation.
: While traffic to stores and retail websites rose to 195 million people
: from 172
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 8 The prediction doesn't seem to be very accurate? @_@
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: News so far:
: American consumers shopped more for bargains at the start of the U.S.
: holiday season and spent significantly less than a year ago, according
: to early data released on Sunday.
: Consumers said they will have spent nearly 8 percent less on average,
: or about $343 per person, over the weekend that includes U.S.
: Thanksgiving Day, Black Friday and runs through Sunday, according to
: the National Retail Federation.
: While traffic to stores and retail websites rose to 195 million people
: from 172
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 9 Which one is not accurate? I thought it is pretty accurate on inventory
adjustment, less discount comparing to last year, better margin and flat
year-over-year sale.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: The prediction doesn't seem to be very accurate? @_@
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 10 "American consumers shopped more for bargains at the start of the U.S.
holiday season and spent significantly less than a year ago, according
to early data released on Sunday."
Compared to
"2. Shoppers will be looking for deal but since most people are clueless
about what the real deals are, they will eventually buy the overpriced item.
Therefore although they hope to reduce the budget, it will come out similar
to last year's."
The prediction on inventory and profit margin matches with the
repor
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: Which one is not accurate? I thought it is pretty accurate on inventory
: adjustment, less discount comparing to last year, better margin and flat
: year-over-year sale.
|
|
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 11 To be fair, the comments on inventory and profit margin are not really
prediction (they are derived from actions taken in the past). I just blend
it in to increase my prediction accuracy. :-)
I don't really know anything about the future. I am just pretending to know.
Speaking of the future, I recently read that 1934-edition of Graham and Dodd
's Security Analysis. And I felt cheated! Based on some recent books by so
called "value investors", I always thought that it was Graham's idea to
value p
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: "American consumers shopped more for bargains at the start of the U.S.
: holiday season and spent significantly less than a year ago, according
: to early data released on Sunday."
: Compared to
: "2. Shoppers will be looking for deal but since most people are clueless
: about what the real deals are, they will eventually buy the overpriced item.
: Therefore although they hope to reduce the budget, it will come out similar
: to last year's."
: The prediction on inventory and profit margin matches with the
: repor
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 12 That's the Myth of Ben Graham. He was considered as a "pure" book value inve
stor. Even Warren Buffett commented about it in a topic of goodwill. But Gra
ham was the chair of Geico, the best example of earning potential play, or s
ay earning power. And even Warren himself admitted that Geico was the best o
ne he had ever made. Poor Warren, being the best investor, not able to swing
a single better bat than his mentor in his whole life. haha
know.
Dodd
that
Analysis
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: To be fair, the comments on inventory and profit margin are not really
: prediction (they are derived from actions taken in the past). I just blend
: it in to increase my prediction accuracy. :-)
: I don't really know anything about the future. I am just pretending to know.
: Speaking of the future, I recently read that 1934-edition of Graham and Dodd
: 's Security Analysis. And I felt cheated! Based on some recent books by so
: called "value investors", I always thought that it was Graham's idea to
: value p
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 13 Warren的那段原话
“You can live a full and rewarding life without ever
thinking about Goodwill and its amortization. But students
of investment and management should understand the nuances
of the subject. My own thinking has changed drastically
from 35 years ago when I was taught to favor tangible
assets and to shun businesses whose value depended largely
upon economic Goodwill. This bias caused me to make many
important business mistakes of omission, although
relatively few of commission.
Key
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: That's the Myth of Ben Graham. He was considered as a "pure" book value inve
: stor. Even Warren Buffett commented about it in a topic of goodwill. But Gra
: ham was the chair of Geico, the best example of earning potential play, or s
: ay earning power. And even Warren himself admitted that Geico was the best o
: ne he had ever made. Poor Warren, being the best investor, not able to swing
: a single better bat than his mentor in his whole life. haha
:
: know.
: Dodd
: that
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 14 You know another famous value investor, Seth Klarman, actually challenged WB
's like of intangible. Seth Klarman stayed away from intangible but he still
averaged over 20% in the last 26 years.
Klarman has a point. The intangible has a huge risk factor because people's
taste can change overnight. If you are a true believer of margin-of-safety,
there is no safety at all with intangibles. Of course, people who buy into
intangible may earn better returns, but that's just a risk premium that
turns o
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: Warren的那段原话
: “You can live a full and rewarding life without ever
: thinking about Goodwill and its amortization. But students
: of investment and management should understand the nuances
: of the subject. My own thinking has changed drastically
: from 35 years ago when I was taught to favor tangible
: assets and to shun businesses whose value depended largely
: upon economic Goodwill. This bias caused me to make many
: important business mistakes of omission, although
: relatively few of commission.
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 15 龙有九个孩子，每一个孩子都是不一样的。Seth同学的书写的很好，基金做的也很好，
在投资上的见解也很有价值。八飞只不过刚好是龙的另一个孩子，走了不同的路径。
正像heartinny经常说的一样，business creates value。一个企业之所以区别于一块金
子的最大区别就在于heartinny经常说的这句话，企业的商业行为创造价值。投资的最终
目的是让企业通过商业行为或者投资的项目本身创造价值。而刚好这个价值是个无形价
值，也就是说开企业赚钱都属于追逐无形价值。其实格雷厄姆自己也明白这个道理，他
曾经说过"Investment is most intelligent when it is most businesslike."只不过
可能因为他出身于华尔街，而且在他的时代价值投资并不十分完善，所以他还是偏重于
有形价值。偏重于有形资产有形价值并没有错，只不过有形价值投资有它的局限性。说
到底，有形资产是个华尔街类型的资产，当华尔街不存在的时候，有形资产投资的范围
就变得非常狭小。而且如今像八飞这样大的规模，华尔街已经不够他折腾得了。
八飞的高明之处就是他完善了价值投资的理论。
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: You know another famous value investor, Seth Klarman, actually challenged WB
: 's like of intangible. Seth Klarman stayed away from intangible but he still
: averaged over 20% in the last 26 years.
: Klarman has a point. The intangible has a huge risk factor because people's
: taste can change overnight. If you are a true believer of margin-of-safety,
: there is no safety at all with intangibles. Of course, people who buy into
: intangible may earn better returns, but that's just a risk premium that
: turns o
|
s***w
发帖数: 521 | 16 so there will be another dip?
stores
supply
item.
similar
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: A lot of the stock market movement could depend on the retail sales this
: Christmas season. So I am making a prediction before the holiday season (
: just for fun):
: 1. The overall theme of this Christmas is that there is NO deal. The stores
: have adjusted their inventory levels in the past few months. When the supply
: meets the demand, there is just no reason to reduce the price.
: 2. Shoppers will be looking for deal but since most people are clueless
: about what the real deals are, they will eventuall
|
d*****z
发帖数: 114 | 17 很有道理...
块金
最终
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: 龙有九个孩子，每一个孩子都是不一样的。Seth同学的书写的很好，基金做的也很好，
: 在投资上的见解也很有价值。八飞只不过刚好是龙的另一个孩子，走了不同的路径。
: 正像heartinny经常说的一样，business creates value。一个企业之所以区别于一块金
: 子的最大区别就在于heartinny经常说的这句话，企业的商业行为创造价值。投资的最终
: 目的是让企业通过商业行为或者投资的项目本身创造价值。而刚好这个价值是个无形价
: 值，也就是说开企业赚钱都属于追逐无形价值。其实格雷厄姆自己也明白这个道理，他
: 曾经说过"Investment is most intelligent when it is most businesslike."只不过
: 可能因为他出身于华尔街，而且在他的时代价值投资并不十分完善，所以他还是偏重于
: 有形价值。偏重于有形资产有形价值并没有错，只不过有形价值投资有它的局限性。说
: 到底，有形资产是个华尔街类型的资产，当华尔街不存在的时候，有形资产投资的范围
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 18 State governments are going bankrupcy pretty soon. I always believe that the
recovery is real however it is so weak that can not help to prevent another
systematic shock. There will always be surprise coming somewhere just like
the Dubai World recently.
【在 s***w 的大作中提到】
: so there will be another dip?
:
: stores
: supply
: item.
: similar
|
