d*****z
发帖数: 114 | 1 用十分钟给linkedin估一下值。只算到数量级，very very rough.
assumptions:
1. target market for US:
a: total workers in US 100M
b: 20% will use linkedin (most low level jobs will never need linkedin)
c: people change job every 10 years
d: average employer'd pay $1,500 for every qualified hire
->$3Billon per year from US when the marekt is relatively mature
2. worldwide market:
2 x US market (considering extensibility across border, lower than google
, close to priceline)
->$6B worldwide
3. market share:
50% (refer to other dominant platforms google/bidu/priceline/ebay,
slightly lower than google, higher than priceline)
->$3B revenue for linkedin
4. operating margin:
30% (refer to google/bidu/priceline/ebay...)
5. P/E
15-18 when relatively mature
->P/S: 3.5-4
->market cap: $12B, $120/share
6: taking how long to reach target condition
5 years
($400million for 2011 -> $3Billion for 2016, 50% annual growth)
7. discounted value:
$85/share (8% discout rate)
conclusion: $85接近目前的价格。如果linkedin真能dominate这个professional
development/recruitment market, 基本应该就值这个价钱，或者稍稍被低估。这个
market的总量还是比较有限。 |
p********r
发帖数: 1980 | 2 Why you make assumptions that it can only make money by employer referral?
It wasn't even a jobhunting website to begin with, but jobhunting was the
first only application that users have found.
The same kind of mindset probably was the reason that Yahoo refused to buy
out Google when it has a chance.
google
【在 d*****z 的大作中提到】
: 用十分钟给linkedin估一下值。只算到数量级，very very rough.
: assumptions:
: 1. target market for US:
: a: total workers in US 100M
: b: 20% will use linkedin (most low level jobs will never need linkedin)
: c: people change job every 10 years
: d: average employer'd pay $1,500 for every qualified hire
: ->$3Billon per year from US when the marekt is relatively mature
: 2. worldwide market:
: 2 x US market (considering extensibility across border, lower than google
|
v*****k
发帖数: 7798 | |
s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 4 That is true.
But on the other hand, the assumption that Linkedin can dominate
professional hiring market is very generous. If facebook wants to do the
same thing, what barrier does Linkedin have to defend its market?
【在 p********r 的大作中提到】
: Why you make assumptions that it can only make money by employer referral?
: It wasn't even a jobhunting website to begin with, but jobhunting was the
: first only application that users have found.
: The same kind of mindset probably was the reason that Yahoo refused to buy
: out Google when it has a chance.
:
: google
|
k*****a
发帖数: 7389 | 5 some correction to your assumptions:
1. target market for US:
a: total workers in US far below 100M unless you include all low level
and part-time illegal immagrants
b: 5% will use linkedin the most
c: people change job every 5 years
d: average employer'd pay $1,500 for every qualified hire, but as job
market continue to shrink, and it's more and more difficult to get a job,
this reward level will keep decreasing |
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 6 Linkedin is all about professional, facebook is all about friends.
The common connections ain't that many.
Technically facebook can set up a professional only view, but I
doubt it will prevail. It's all about image.
If I were facebook, I'll focus on ads, games etc. Even competing
with twitter is probably easier. As it's all about leisure life.
【在 s**********n 的大作中提到】
: That is true.
: But on the other hand, the assumption that Linkedin can dominate
: professional hiring market is very generous. If facebook wants to do the
: same thing, what barrier does Linkedin have to defend its market?
|
x******n
发帖数: 1328 | 7 绝大多数人并不希望自己的老板或者未来的雇主或者生意上的客户看到
自己和朋友狂欢时喝醉了的照片，这就需要facebook和linkedin分开
【在 s**********n 的大作中提到】
: That is true.
: But on the other hand, the assumption that Linkedin can dominate
: professional hiring market is very generous. If facebook wants to do the
: same thing, what barrier does Linkedin have to defend its market?
|
T*********e
发帖数: 9208 | 8 这个技术上很简单，两套界面，一套数据库/账户就好了
【在 x******n 的大作中提到】
: 绝大多数人并不希望自己的老板或者未来的雇主或者生意上的客户看到
: 自己和朋友狂欢时喝醉了的照片，这就需要facebook和linkedin分开
|
s*****e
发帖数: 21415 | 9 so many "if" ，考虑到discount rate 和risk，貌似远远不如存银行。
呵呵
实际上你对市场的估计太乐观。很多工作就是直接通过connection找，
也没有人贴广告给linkedin创收。呵呵
google
【在 d*****z 的大作中提到】
: 用十分钟给linkedin估一下值。只算到数量级，very very rough.
: assumptions:
: 1. target market for US:
: a: total workers in US 100M
: b: 20% will use linkedin (most low level jobs will never need linkedin)
: c: people change job every 10 years
: d: average employer'd pay $1,500 for every qualified hire
: ->$3Billon per year from US when the marekt is relatively mature
: 2. worldwide market:
: 2 x US market (considering extensibility across border, lower than google
|
