x***y
发帖数: 830 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 Living 讨论区 】
发信人: xuray (干 干 干), 信区: Living
标 题: 给看看这个投资房值得买么?
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue May 21 01:59:06 2013, 美东)
short sale，single family house, 1500sqft，3brd, single floor, built 10 year
old
, 走路可以到9分小学， 初高中学一般般 本来用cash买 再cashout re-fi
三个月前seller接受19万，现在lender终于approved 了 可是counter要21.5万, 老地
主们帮忙看看还有必要买吗？虽然房价去年到今年张了至少20% 但是总的cash flow
是不是太差了？
downpay (25%) 55000
closing cost 700
upfront repair cost 5000 (房子空了有两三年没人住，前后草坪完全枯掉了，中央空
调不work 好像是电路板有问题，这是已经知道的 其他没）
monthly motage 810
HOA/month 30
tax/month 220
insurance/month 78
repair/month 100
vac rate: 1 out of 12 months
rent 1450
monthly cash flow= 93 | s*********r
发帖数: 432 | 2 只能做到持平吧。看看以后房价的涨势怎样？还有，空了2、3年的水管、卫生洁具和家
电是否要修理更换？屋顶怎样？
感觉不是特别理想的投资房，你得要用好几年的房租才能把投入的前期费用收回（
closing, repair, etc.),除非房子本身增值潜力巨大。 | r****m
发帖数: 1204 | 3 I ran a RE investment model based on your numbers, if you can hold it for
more than 10 years, and assume 2% annual property value increase, your IRR
could be close to 9%.
If you don't have another long term investment can get you that kind of
return, BUY! | E**x
发帖数: 33 | 4 Interesting model, Redsim. a couple of questions:
1. do you think 2% annual property value increase is on the conservative
side?
2. is it true from your model that the longer holding the property, the
higher the IRR? or is there an optimal number of years to hold the property?
3. S&P index long-term average annual return is also roughly 9%...what do
you think of DCA of a S&P index fund compared to this property?
Thanks! | w****r
发帖数: 245 | 5 1. 2%是长期通胀预期，用在房价增值预期上基本合适
2. 当然不是越长irr越高，不应该有optimal
3. 投资房是很好的用来diversify stock market的asset，而且volatility小
property?
【在 E**x 的大作中提到】
: Interesting model, Redsim. a couple of questions:
: 1. do you think 2% annual property value increase is on the conservative
: side?
: 2. is it true from your model that the longer holding the property, the
: higher the IRR? or is there an optimal number of years to hold the property?
: 3. S&P index long-term average annual return is also roughly 9%...what do
: you think of DCA of a S&P index fund compared to this property?
: Thanks!
| r****m
发帖数: 1204 | 6 Completely agree what wiscer's answers above.
Just to add a little more:
1. 2% - 3% is probably norm for the nation, but real estate investing is
local, so you need to assume a reasonable rate for your local situation.
2. IRR seems to be a bell curve, at least for the case I ran, meaning the
longer the holding period, the lower, and the shorter the holding period,
the lower, the peak is around 15-20 years.
3. S&P index DCA investing plus RE investing should be part of every family'
s portfolio. But start with S&P index DCA first, because RE investing is
not for everyone.
Good luck and more questions are welcome. | E**x
发帖数: 33 | 7 Thanks! You two are "great minds think alike". My follow-up questions are:
1. This house at $215,000 with a rent of $1,450 gives a PE around 12.4.
Traditional thinking is to look for PE less than 10. I think this house is
still attractive because of current super low interest rate. Is my reasoning
right? and is there a PE guideline adjusted with respect to interest rate?
2. Thanks for the explanation on the "bell curve". Question is what are the
options after 15-20 years to maintain comparable IRR? Refinancing to re-gain
leverage, roll-over to another one, or just sell it?
3. You also mentioned that RE investing is not for everyone. Which kind of
situation do you think should avoid RE? I know RE is less liquid (and less
volatile), what percentage should it be in an ideal portfolio? | E**x
发帖数: 33 | 8 HI Redsim: any suggestions or advice on the questions above? New on the
investment property and eager to learn. Particularly would like to have your
opinions on question #2 about what is the best option after 15 years.
Thanks a lot! | r****m
发帖数: 1204 | 9 EBex,
Some back of envelop calculation-based answers:
1. $1450/mth rent, assume avg 1 month vacancy/repair cost, property tax/
insurance at $3000, your annual net operating income = $12,950
So your cap rate is only 6% (1290/215000). Fair, but not great.
2. Refinance after 10 years is a great idea, at the appropriate rate level,
for several benefits: a. you can cash out a sizable equity for other
investments (presumbly higher than 6% :). b. re-leverage investment in this
property. c. regain tax shield (because after 10-15 years, your interest
expense will be a lot smaller).
3. If you don't like dealing with people (negotiate rents, fixes, etc.), if
you have a very warm heart (can't kick late paying tenants out), not very
handy (need to call a handyman for every fix), want to enjoy life, RE
investing is definitely not for you.
不要只看贼吃肉, 不看贼挨打.
Well, the above is true for every business/product, look at both sides of a
coin. | E**x
发帖数: 33 | 10 HI Redsim:
多谢了. 有茅塞顿开之感。以上是你的宝贵经验，非常感谢你不吝赐教！
Totally agree with your last sentence as well; though you are very moderate.
I think you must be very rich from what you are sharing. Maybe it can be
better described as follows? 不要只看富人度长假, 不看富人睡不好.
I just closed a RE deal. It is my first one. It is very similar to what
Xuray described with slightly better cash flow. I guess I will find out very
soon if I am suitable for RE or not. I know things can get very tough and
many times I wanted to give up. But I told myself: I will never be able to
take risks if I can't take this one. Very glad to know you. Your experience
and sharing have been very helpful. Again, Thanks a lot! | r****m
发帖数: 1204 | 11 Congrats on closing a RE deal!
Tenant screening is extremely important if you want to avoid trouble down
the road, also, treat the rental property as a place you will live there,
don't skim on things, you will attract quality tenants, because people can
tell.
Good luck! | E**x
发帖数: 33 | 12 Thanks, Redsim! You just talked to my mind - how to find a quality tenant. I
will try to treat tenants the way I liked to be treated when I was renting.
You are one of the most knowledgeable and experienced person I know on this
field. I really appreciated your your time to sharing! I am a fan of yours
now...Please let me know if you have a board, blog or something I can
follow.
Thanks! |
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