C******r
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xiaofang (xiaofang) 于 (Sat Jul 4 20:55:22 2009, 美东) 提到:
其中～20%的FMG（真正的foreign medical graduate, 不包括US IMG - citizen
trained at foreign medical school）在match前withdraw，说明～20%的人可能拿到
pre-match.
分析一下CMG报名较多的IM，Path
IM，
总的IMG（US IMG+FMG）申请人数：6296，
match上的FMG，1335， match率占总IMG的21.2%
match上的USIMG，470
因为不知道到底有多少USIMG申请人，如果刨开这部分USIMG也许FMG的match率可以达到
30%
Path
总的IMG（US IMG+FMG）申请人数：482，
match上的FMG，80， match率占总IMG的16.5%
match上的USIMG，29
因为不知道到底有多少USIMG申请人，如果刨开这部分USIMG也许FMG的match率可以达到
20%
以上的分析是基于2009 match data数据报告（参见附件）中Table 1， Table 2。欢迎大家斧正！
PS:
这样看来所谓的45%的IMG match率（不包括pre-match）是不可靠的，不能作为参考的指标。
另一个方面，具体到CMG因为没有具体的申请和录取的数据，更加无法判断match率。不
过有理由相信版上兄弟姐妹都是十年磨一剑match率会远高于总FMG的match率。
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estes (麦地祈顺) 于 (Sat Jul 4 22:47:08 2009, 美东) 提到:
你的分析有很大漏洞，因为没有排除一个applicant申请多个专业，从而严重低估了
match率。
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xiaofang (xiaofang) 于 (Sat Jul 4 23:18:17 2009, 美东) 提到:
这个没有办法啦。无法得到这样的数据 :(
但是可以得到这样的数据，
AMG毕业人数16008人，而所有专业AMG的申请人次数是23343，这就是说平均每一个AMG申请了1.5个专业。
独立申请人数20964，而所有专业独立申请人次数是22966，这就是说平均每一个独立申请人申请了1.1个专业。当然有的专业可能就根本没有独立申请人报名。
～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～
不过发现NRMP的一个投机的地方，它所算的match率是基于active applicant，而不是
所有的applicant。
实际上FMG total applicant 11267，
withdraw 2144，
matched 3112,
实际match率35%
形势还是严峻的。
当然对于CMG而言70～80%的match率还是有可能的。
下面的百分比是FMG在不同专业中所占的比率仅限于（PGY-1）
IM 27.5
FM 20.9
Neuro 26.7
Path 16.3
Psy 15.4
Pre- 25.4
Surgery
相对容易的专业是IM，Neuro，和pre-surgery。
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ericusa (eric) 于 (Sat Jul 4 23:53:22 2009, 美东) 提到:
If compare the data of how many non-U.S. IMGs registered for USMLE step 1,
and how many of them actually enrolled in PGY-1, the success rate is about
30%.
When people registered for the USMLE step 1, they INTENDED for the residency
match, but
Some of them failed on step 1;
Some of them failed on step 2 CK;
Some of them failed on step 2 CS;
Some of them gave up on personal reasons;
Some of them didn't get any interview invitations;
Some of them submitted ROL but didn't match (even after the scramble).
The people showed up in PGY-1 programs including
Who got pre-match offer(s) or off-the-table deal;
Who got an offer in SF match;
Who got an offer in NRMP main match (or through scramble and last-minute
deal).
Many CMGs have a graduate degree (many Ph.D.s) so the success rate could be
higher.
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estes (麦地祈顺) 于 (Sun Jul 5 00:26:51 2009, 美东) 提到:
打回去用active applicant再算一遍申请人数，你把inactive得都算到申请人数中了。
差不多都是1.5X,算来算去，差不多就是30-45%，我觉得很高了，比当上AP的几率高得
多。另外，这里面各种情况都有，这个数字没有什么太大的说服力的，只能自己用来吓
唬自己或者鼓励自己，half full or half empty。
AMG申请了1.5个专业。
申请人申请了1.1个专业。当然有的专业可能就根本没有独立申请人报名。
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xiaofang (xiaofang) 于 (Sun Jul 5 00:34:00 2009, 美东) 提到:
只是想告诉大家不需要妄自菲薄，也不能过分乐观。
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ericusa (eric) 于 (Sun Jul 5 00:45:07 2009, 美东) 提到:
That's why Dok emphasized many times that people should try to get into the door first. Pay more attention to those "easier" specialties such as IM, FM, Peds, Psych, and research background will also be good for Path and Neuro.
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xiaofang (xiaofang) 于 (Sun Jul 5 01:18:14 2009, 美东) 提到:
看看美国医学院的扩招
AAMC希望2012年US医学院的招生人数上升30%，目前招生的人数已经比2002年上升了15%
～17%。这一政策以及明显的影响到今年FMG的match。
可以看得出来今后每年会有1000～2000AMG加入到分match蛋糕的行列中，有可能进一步
降低FMG的match率。
从图中可以看到针对FMG的match率从2005年的～52%已经下降到今年的42%（这可是按照
active applicant算的）。不知道之一下降的趋势会不会继续。
大家快加油啦！
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estes (麦地祈顺) 于 (Sun Jul 5 01:30:42 2009, 美东) 提到:
嗯，同意你的结论：
大家快加油啦！
15%
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ericusa (eric) 于 (Sun Jul 5 09:03:52 2009, 美东) 提到:
Yes increasing medical school enrollment is a bad news for IMGs. It's not only for IMGs, at our school people felt more competition this year. Some good candidates didn't get the prefered specialties.
Here is a good news for IMGs:
A "Resident Physician Shortage Reduction Act of 2009" was introduced in
Cogress on May 5, 2009. If passed, the bill would increase the number of Medicare-funded residency training positions by 15,000. This translates into roughly 4,000 new PGY-1 positions per year.
The bill summary states that "preference will be given to hospitals that apply for primary care or general surgery slots, or slots that emphasize community-based training; further preference will be given to hospitals in States with fewer Medicare-sp
ed residency slots than medical students, and to hospitals in states with low resident-to-population ratios."
In the House, a companion bill was introduced May 5, 2009.
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cityly (城里) 于 (Sun Jul 5 10:49:46 2009, 美东) 提到:
It is a good news indeed, but I don't hold my breath for it. The majority of
bills and resolutions never make it out of committee.
only for IMGs, at our school people felt more competition this year. Some
good candidates didn't get the referenced specialties.
Medicare-funded residency training positions by 15,000. This translates into
roughly 4,000 new PGY-1 positions per year.
apply for primary care or general surgery slots, or slots that emphasize
community-based training; further preference will be given to hospitals in
States with fewer Medicare-sponsored residency slots than medical students,
and to hospitals in states with low resident-to-population ratios."
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ericusa (eric) 于 (Sun Jul 5 11:02:34 2009, 美东) 提到:
The key issue is where the funding comes from. Right now Obama is playing a
"zero-sum" game by redistributing Medicare payments among PCPs and
specialists.
of bills and resolutions never make it out of committee.
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xiaofang (xiaofang) 于 (Sun Jul 5 12:53:24 2009, 美东) 提到:
07年也有相应的法案，但是没有通过；
希望这次的结果会好一些
only for IMGs, at our school people felt more competition this year. Some
good candidates didn't get the prefered specialties.
Medicare-funded residency training positions by 15,000. This translates into
roughly 4,000 new PGY-1 positions per year.
apply for primary care or general surgery slots, or slots that emphasize
community-based training; further preference will be given to hospitals in
States with fewer Medicare-sponsored residency slots than medical students,
and to hospitals in states with low resident-to-population ratios."
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MD2009 (麦地游医) 于 (Sun Jul 5 15:39:38 2009, 美东) 提到:
you forgot the IMGs who got prematched. that is a pretty big number. |
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