c**i
发帖数: 6973 | | t******t
发帖数: 15246 | | L**i
发帖数: 22365 | | w*********r
发帖数: 42116 | 4 百万苏军陈兵中苏边境, 俄罗斯能有这个水准. 没有的话, 出来丢人.
iron
【在 c**i 的大作中提到】
: VOA Chinese, Feb 20, 2011.
: http://www.voanews.com/chinese/news/20110220_Russia_Military-11
| c**i
发帖数: 6973 | 5 Russia fears Chinese invasion. It does not intend to invade China.
【在 w*********r 的大作中提到】
: 百万苏军陈兵中苏边境, 俄罗斯能有这个水准. 没有的话, 出来丢人.
:
: iron
| s****f
发帖数: 3038 | 6 理论上是剑指了所有陆地接壤、海上连接的国家，包括美国。 | Z**R
发帖数: 1233 | 7 靠，土共威武。连吹教授都会说“剑指”了。。。
iron
【在 c**i 的大作中提到】
: VOA Chinese, Feb 20, 2011.
: http://www.voanews.com/chinese/news/20110220_Russia_Military-11
| c**i
发帖数: 6973 | 8 I will give you a scenario.
(1) Precedents:
(a) Japan on the eve of Pearl Harbor: salivating over oil in Dutch Indonesia.
(b) Operation Barbarossa
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Barbarossa
(The German economy needed more oil and controlling the Baku Oilfields would
achieve this; as Albert Speer, the German Minister for Armaments and War
Production, later said in his interrogation, "the need for oil certainly was
a prime motive" in the decision to invade.[37])
Ref 37: Yergin, Daniel (1991), The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money &
Power, New York: Simon & Schuster, ISBN 0-671-79932-0 p. 334
(i) Frederick I, Holy Roman Emperor
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frederick_I,_Holy_Roman_Emperor
(1122-1190; German; Holy Roman Emperor; The name Barbarossa came from the
northern Italian cities he attempted to rule, and means "red beard" in
Italian – a mark of both their fear and respect)
He had red beard and hair.
(ii) German–Soviet Commercial Agreement (1940)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German%E2%80%93Soviet_Commercial_A
Quote:
Section 1.1 Prior to 1939: "Germany lacks natural supplies of several key
raw materials needed for economic and military operations. In 1938, two
thirds of German oil supply came from the United States and Latin America,
while 52 per cent of German steel used imported iron ore originating from
Sweden.
Section 1.2 Resource requirements: "were Russian supplies cut off, German
planners estimated that they would need to find substitutes for
approximately 165,000 tons of manganese and almost 2 million tons of oil per
year.[16] * * * On May 8, [1939] German officials produced new planning
figures estimating that Germany possessed oil stocks totaling only 3.1
months of usage.[16] * * * Because of the expected naval blockade [by UK],
the Soviet Union would become the only potential supplier for many items.[17]
Section 4 Trade and assistance during the Agreement's operation: "In the
Summer of 1940, Germany grew even more dependent on Soviet imports.[61]
German occupations of France, the Netherlands, and Belgium created
additional demand while decreasing avenues for indirect supply.[61] Compared
to 1938 figures, the expanded "Greater Germany" and its sphere of influence
lacked, among other items, 500,000 tons of manganese, 3.3 million tons of
raw phosphate, 200,000 tons of rubber and 9.5 million tons of oil.[61]
Hitler believed that an eventual invasion of the Soviet Union increasingly
looked like the only way in which Germany could solve its resource crisis.[
61]
Ref:
16 Ericson, Edward E. (1999), Feeding the German Eagle: Soviet Economic Aid
to Nazi Germany, 1933-1941, Greenwood Publishing Group, ISBN 0275963373, at
page 44.
17 Ditto, at page 54.
61 Ditto, at pages 127–8.
(c) In World War II, US produced most of world oil, followed distantly by
Soviet Union. Neither Japan nor Germany produced much oil--and Italy none.
Military production during World War II
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_production_during_World_W
(section 2.5 Materials: crude oil)
(d) Richard F. Kaufman and John Pearce Hardt, The former Soviet Union in
transition. Joint Economic Committee, Congress of the United States, 1993,
at page 463.
http://books.google.com/books?id=JSwstF6SEAkC
&pg=PA463&lpg=PA463&dq=oil+production+1940+%22soviet+union%22+us&source=bl&
ots=V7LC__Iek2&sig=x1n0TIMeDv26OjiYrlDBg1y5p5w&hl=en&ei=E5dmTe8ng4KUB_bEof8B
&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=6&ved=0CDoQ6AEwBQ#v=onepage&q&f=false
("As World War II began, many factors influenced Hitler's decision to attack
Soviet Union, but the central issue was oil. In the 1940 Soviet Union oil
production reached 223 mb, 163 mb of which came from the Baku region. In
the early 1940s, as the Germans drove through Russia major operatives were
the Baku and Groznyy oil fields. The German army was stopped short of its
goal and as the war ended, was reduced to having teams of oxen oull its
trucks.")
The "mb" stands for "million marrels."
(e) ... - Google Books Result
N. A. Krylov, A. A. Bokserman and Evgeniĭ Romanovich Stavrovskiĭ (
eds), The oil industry of the former Soviet Union: reserves and prospects,
extraction, transportation. Gordon and Breacah Science Publishers, 1998, at
page 74.
http://books.google.com/books?id=9mbYnR9rGJEC&pg
=PA72&lpg=PA72&dq=oil+production+1940&source=bl&ots=z1rREzmKJW&sig=
wSy2yTqF6vEZTHAa60v3Y9D7_dg&hl=en&ei=X5VmTa-BMYSBlAelgb2AAg&sa=X&oi=book_
result&ct=result&resnum=10&ved=0CFoQ6AEwCTgK#v=onepage&q=oil%20production%
201940&f=false
(Table 1.3 Oil production in different regions of the former Soviet Union)
(i) Baku
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baku
(the capital, the largest city, and the largest port of Azerbaijan and
entire Caucasus)
(2) Should China enter war--even before China enters war--China's
transportation routes through Malacca Strait, Myanma or Pakistan may be
blocked (India alone can accomplish this). Its routes through Xinjiang may become precarious (local rebellions?). Oil and gas fields in Russia's far east--in Sakhalin and across the
border from Heilongjiang--may prove too tempting for China.
【在 c**i 的大作中提到】
: Russia fears Chinese invasion. It does not intend to invade China.
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