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发帖数: 15479 | 1 Often with a company like Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA ) , guessing the earnings per
share in a report a month in advance of its release can be as difficult as
guessing the weather. There are so many rapidly changing metrics with this
company that it seems an overwhelming effort to keep up with all of them.
However, this time around Tesla has dropped enough specific clues that makes
estimating the earnings per share for its fourth quarter a fairly easy task.
Calculating earnings
In order to make a reasonable estimate on earnings for Tesla, there are four
basic parts you need to know, or at least be able to make a rational
estimate of. They are sales, total overhead expense, interest expense, and
gross profit, research, and development expense. For purposes of this
exercise, let's assume that the $2.2 million in interest expense of the
prior quarter is consistent with the fourth quarter (all figures in this
article are non-GAAP).
Start with sales
Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently announced that the fourth quarter had 6,900 car
deliveries. In order to arrive at the total revenue figure, you need the
average selling price for each of these vehicles. In the last quarter's
earnings release, Tesla stated that "[average selling prices] are expected
to be relatively
flat sequentially as we continue to see a rich mix of options on incoming
orders." Based on that, simply grab the average selling price of the third
quarter and apply it to the fourth quarter.
Last quarter, Tesla reported 5,500 deliveries on $603 million in revenue.
This comes out to around $109,600 per vehicle. Based on 6,900 deliveries for
the fourth quarter, we should therefore expect revenue of around $756
million.
Gross profit
Tesla set a target of 25% gross margin on sales for the fourth quarter.
Twenty-five percent of $756 million comes out to $189 million in gross
profit; from that $189 million, subtract out R&D, overhead, and interest.
R&D plus overhead
Tesla said to expect a 25% increase in R&D expense and a 20% increase in
overhead. Those amounts were $48 million and $67 million last quarter,
respectively, so expect them to be $60 million and $80.4 million for this
quarter, for a total of $140.4 million.
Subtract the $140.4 million from the $189 million in gross profit, then take
away the $2.2 million in interest expense -- based on Tesla's disclosures
and forecasts, the result is $46.4 million in earnings (assuming Tesla meets
its expectations, which it rarely misses).
Per-share-earnings estimate
Based on 139 million fully diluted shares, look for Tesla to post at least $
0.33 in earnings per share compared to analysts' estimates of $0.16 per
share at the time of this writing.
Where the estimate of $0.33 can be wrong, aside from higher than expected
expenses or lower than expected selling prices, is in the possibility that
Tesla willfully decided to increase R&D or its Supercharger network build-
out more aggressively than originally intended in response to the increased
earnings and positive cash flow from the quarter. |
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