G*********8
发帖数: 644 | 1 美逾百城市明年恐破產
由於美國各州和大城市的總負債已高達2兆元，華爾街知名分析師大膽預測，明年美國
可能有100多個城市宣告破產，而曾經讓銀行倒閉和威脅國家金融的債務危機，未來將
引爆各地方政府崩盤。
英國衛報報導，曾準確預測全球信貸危機的分析師梅麗荻絲‧惠特尼(Meredith
Whitney)19日晚間在哥倫比亞廣播公司 (CBS)「60分鐘」節目中指出，各州和地方政府
的債務，是美國經濟將面臨的最大難題，並可能阻礙經濟復甦。
惠特尼說：「這是美國僅次於房市的單一最重大問題，也確實是美國經濟的最大威脅。
我們將會見到許多地方政府無力清償債券，50個到100個、甚至更多市政府拖欠可觀債
務，最後總共將拖欠數千億元。」
新澤西州州長克利斯蒂(Chris Christie)則簡明扼要點出該問題的癥結，他說：「我們
每個名目支出太多，並且瘋狂借貸，讓信用過度擴張。我們現在必須爬出過去數十年自
掘的坑洞，但非常困難。」
目前各州的開支已比稅收超出近5000億元，退休基金並將面臨1兆元的資金缺口。許多
地方政府被迫大砍預算，以底特律為例，包括警力、照明、道路維護和清潔等服務的預
算，紛紛遭到刪減，多達20%的居民受到影響。
而鄰近的伊利諾州州政府的財政同樣吃緊，該州目前的開支為實際稅收的一倍，而且還
款已拖欠近六個月，僅伊利諾大學即負債4億元。伊州違約不付債的可能高達21%，高於
其他任何州。另外，佛羅里達州也可能陷入無力償債的困境。
各州為了彌補財政缺口，紛紛設法增加稅收，例如加州州立大學把學費調漲32%；亞利
桑納州則是把部分政府大樓先出售給投資人後再承租回來，以節省開支。 |
G*********8
发帖数: 644 | 2 Wave of Muni Defaults to Spur Layoffs, Social Unrest: Whitney
A wave of defaults by state and local governments in the coming months will
spark a selloff in the municipal bond market, hurting US economic growth and
stocks and causing social unrest as governments are forced to lay off
workers and cut back on services, well known financial analyst Meredith
Whitney told CNBC Tuesday.
Responding to the uproar over her "60 Minutes" interview broadcast on CBS
Sunday night, Whitney defended her prediction that at least 50 to 100 cities
and towns could default on their debt as states and the federal government
cut back on financial support.
Muni experts, including an analyst from Standard & Poor's, dismissed her
predictions, saying the numbers don't add up.
"I appreciate that the reaction is so violent," she said in a live interview
with CNBC. "I didn't put the debt on these states. We're looking at the
numbers. This is how it plays out."
The big problem is that cash-strapped states will no longer be able to
provide the financial support to municipalities as they have in the past,
said Whitney, who is CEO and founder of Meredith Whitney Advisory Group.
"States clearly have been funding municipal governments—for now up to 40
percent of their total expenditures," she explained. "As the states become
more compromised from a fiscal standpoint, that funding is going to end."
The federal government is unlikely to bail out the states either, added
Whitney, because the cost—which she put at $1 trillion—would cause a
political backlash. "Who in Nebraska's going to want to bail out someone in
Florida?" she said.
She also sees parallels with the turmoil in Europe over austerity measures
imposed there.
"When you have so many different municipalities default ... you going to
have so many issues in terms of layoffs of employees," she said. "This is
going to be such a wider-spread issue. It's going to look like Europe in
terms of programs are cut, you're going to see a lot of social unrest."
Whitney, who became famous for predicting the financial crisis, also said
the bigger coastal states are underperforming economically—mostly because
of the real estate decline—while the mid-section of the country is doing
somewhat better. But she said that's not enough to even out the national
economy and have GDP growth of more than 2 percent in the coming months.
Whitney added that it's way too soon to see muni bonds as a buying
opportunity. But she said that can change quickly.
"When you start to see the first major defaults in this area [the states and
cities], when you see more defaults and indiscriminate selling—if you do
your research now and figure out who's protected where and which revenues
are protected, there will be great buying opportunities," Whitney said.
"People are complacent about these defaults. The news about all this isn't
out there yet," Whitney went on to say. "And only when it is out there, then
there will be a buying opportunity [for munis]." |
k********8
发帖数: 7948 | |
Z****g
发帖数: 13731 | 4 这么算法，美国政府破了没有？
【在 G*********8 的大作中提到】
: 美逾百城市明年恐破產
: 由於美國各州和大城市的總負債已高達2兆元，華爾街知名分析師大膽預測，明年美國
: 可能有100多個城市宣告破產，而曾經讓銀行倒閉和威脅國家金融的債務危機，未來將
: 引爆各地方政府崩盤。
: 英國衛報報導，曾準確預測全球信貸危機的分析師梅麗荻絲‧惠特尼(Meredith
: Whitney)19日晚間在哥倫比亞廣播公司 (CBS)「60分鐘」節目中指出，各州和地方政府
: 的債務，是美國經濟將面臨的最大難題，並可能阻礙經濟復甦。
: 惠特尼說：「這是美國僅次於房市的單一最重大問題，也確實是美國經濟的最大威脅。
: 我們將會見到許多地方政府無力清償債券，50個到100個、甚至更多市政府拖欠可觀債
: 務，最後總共將拖欠數千億元。」
|
s********u
发帖数: 1054 | 5 WHITNEY 拉出来自己干以后，到目前为止做得很一般吧， 应该是跑输一般同行。 历史
上这种预言对了一次的分析师， 一般都是落寞收场。
假如真出现城市破产的情况， FED 会名正言顺的搞 QE3。
【在 G*********8 的大作中提到】
: 美逾百城市明年恐破產
: 由於美國各州和大城市的總負債已高達2兆元，華爾街知名分析師大膽預測，明年美國
: 可能有100多個城市宣告破產，而曾經讓銀行倒閉和威脅國家金融的債務危機，未來將
: 引爆各地方政府崩盤。
: 英國衛報報導，曾準確預測全球信貸危機的分析師梅麗荻絲‧惠特尼(Meredith
: Whitney)19日晚間在哥倫比亞廣播公司 (CBS)「60分鐘」節目中指出，各州和地方政府
: 的債務，是美國經濟將面臨的最大難題，並可能阻礙經濟復甦。
: 惠特尼說：「這是美國僅次於房市的單一最重大問題，也確實是美國經濟的最大威脅。
: 我們將會見到許多地方政府無力清償債券，50個到100個、甚至更多市政府拖欠可觀債
: 務，最後總共將拖欠數千億元。」
|
m********0
发帖数: 2717 | 6 It's not something unimaginable, quite some ppl believe that muni bond will
be next bubble.
【在 s********u 的大作中提到】
: WHITNEY 拉出来自己干以后，到目前为止做得很一般吧， 应该是跑输一般同行。 历史
: 上这种预言对了一次的分析师， 一般都是落寞收场。
: 假如真出现城市破产的情况， FED 会名正言顺的搞 QE3。
|
k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 7 very reasonable... and possible
消費不行，就業也不行，local and state government更本就沒有收入來源。
等到零售旺季過了以後就業市場又要開始疲軟了。到時候債券又要給炒回去。
美國搞不好很有可能就是當年的日本 |
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 8 Federal government can borrow from the FED, unlimited, QEn
where can state and local governments borrow from?
【在 Z****g 的大作中提到】
: 这么算法，美国政府破了没有？
|
c****e
发帖数: 34 | |
Z****g
发帖数: 13731 | 10 I don't think Fed will leave the local govement alone and let them die.
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: Federal government can borrow from the FED, unlimited, QEn
: where can state and local governments borrow from?
|
M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 11
...................
然。
但这要等墙街财阀们在 Muni Bonds 谷底价购入后。
只要墙街还没有 Cover Short & Go Long 之前，
联储局不会实施针对州或县政府的任何大的援救动作。
【在 Z****g 的大作中提到】
: I don't think Fed will leave the local govement alone and let them die.
|
