k**b
发帖数: 476 | 1 The jpg chart shows the Nasdaq stock market during Y 2006-2010,
plotted for each month of the year.
The ER (Earning Reports) are mostly released in mid-January
and later，mid- April, etc. I was looking for some seaonal
factors in their movement, except some special cases which might
have distorted their visual appearances.
I am watching for a possible correction in mid-January. It could be
a mild one, if the economy continues to put up some good news.
A serious one if ER and the forecast are bad.
There is no exact science (there never has one), but the
probability that it may occur.
I plotted the curves with the daily source data downloaded
from Yahoo.
俺早期发过帖子，指出psp在超短线方面强。大盘还没跌， 他先出帖子(few minutes
before)。 c-shuai和俺是早期的支持者。
有一个晚上，他出帖子做空，~ 12 picks, 第二天，有 ~ 90% 对。做多的，没那么好。
俺忙，没每天看。
但是， 他的picks不好跟。 不好做长线。
例子：01/07/11， twm, 是12.7的时候， 他有系统支持，很可能提了灯跑了，然后等
下一波。profit 3.3% （max. cost 12.3）. 我们可能还在傻等， 结果只有1%。我们
最多能用trailing stop, 结果会好一点。
新手有时可以减仓位， 不一定要做空。做空做短线, 仓位小，不贪心。
另外，Diaowai 写的传记写得非常好，大部分是事实。 | k********n
发帖数: 18523 | | s*****r
发帖数: 2729 | | C********N
发帖数: 1263 | | k*******n
发帖数: 8891 | | C****a
发帖数: 1639 | | k**b
发帖数: 476 | 7 A simple view:
We want to look for a general tendency from one interval
to another, i.e. after subtracting some un-usual occurrences.
Look at the interval, September-November, after subtracting
the bear market year, Y 2008, What will be your conclusion, in
terms of the statistical results ?
A probability that something may happen, except in the case
of extreme "bull" or "bear" market.
【在 C********N 的大作中提到】
: 看不懂呀，能不能详细说明一下呀？
| k**b
发帖数: 476 | 8 不错。话是情人说的
【在 C****a 的大作中提到】
: 图是给人看的。。
| s********u
发帖数: 1054 | 9 耳听为虚， 眼见为实。 PSP 这次买TWM 打算握3个月到 18元。我个人以为是痴人说梦
，不过愿意拭目以待。
发信人: psp (I love psp), 信区: Stock
标 题: Buy twm
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jan 6 15:28:38 2011, 美东)
@12.2x, target 18 in 3 month
【在 k**b 的大作中提到】
: The jpg chart shows the Nasdaq stock market during Y 2006-2010,
: plotted for each month of the year.
: The ER (Earning Reports) are mostly released in mid-January
: and later，mid- April, etc. I was looking for some seaonal
: factors in their movement, except some special cases which might
: have distorted their visual appearances.
: I am watching for a possible correction in mid-January. It could be
: a mild one, if the economy continues to put up some good news.
: A serious one if ER and the forecast are bad.
: There is no exact science (there never has one), but the
| k**b
发帖数: 476 | 10 please don't take his long-term pick seriously.
He could be right, but the risk is unacceptably high,
in view of the continuous improvement in the US economy.
He is very good on the 短线. This is why I made the comment
as shown above.
【在 s********u 的大作中提到】
: 耳听为虚， 眼见为实。 PSP 这次买TWM 打算握3个月到 18元。我个人以为是痴人说梦
: ，不过愿意拭目以待。
: 发信人: psp (I love psp), 信区: Stock
: 标 题: Buy twm
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jan 6 15:28:38 2011, 美东)
: @12.2x, target 18 in 3 month
| l*********l
发帖数: 107 | 11 colorful, that's the only thing in my mind right now | k**b
发帖数: 476 | 12 简单说一句， psp 的神话在于超短线和短线，不在长线。
【在 s********u 的大作中提到】
: 耳听为虚， 眼见为实。 PSP 这次买TWM 打算握3个月到 18元。我个人以为是痴人说梦
: ，不过愿意拭目以待。
: 发信人: psp (I love psp), 信区: Stock
: 标 题: Buy twm
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jan 6 15:28:38 2011, 美东)
: @12.2x, target 18 in 3 month
| x****7
发帖数: 895 | 13 读了几遍终于读懂了。
【在 k**b 的大作中提到】
: A simple view:
: We want to look for a general tendency from one interval
: to another, i.e. after subtracting some un-usual occurrences.
: Look at the interval, September-November, after subtracting
: the bear market year, Y 2008, What will be your conclusion, in
: terms of the statistical results ?
: A probability that something may happen, except in the case
: of extreme "bull" or "bear" market.
| M*****c
发帖数: 2753 | 14 re！
【在 k**b 的大作中提到】
: The jpg chart shows the Nasdaq stock market during Y 2006-2010,
: plotted for each month of the year.
: The ER (Earning Reports) are mostly released in mid-January
: and later，mid- April, etc. I was looking for some seaonal
: factors in their movement, except some special cases which might
: have distorted their visual appearances.
: I am watching for a possible correction in mid-January. It could be
: a mild one, if the economy continues to put up some good news.
: A serious one if ER and the forecast are bad.
: There is no exact science (there never has one), but the
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