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s8
发帖数: 424 | | d*****d
发帖数: 590 | | s8
发帖数: 424 | 3 什么时候买， 什么时候卖， 我不会听任何人的。
不过小黑孩还是挺牛的。能沉住气。 | w***y
发帖数: 2537 | 4 无论什么时候她都来pump, 这叫牛？
封了算了
【在 s8 的大作中提到】
: 什么时候买， 什么时候卖， 我不会听任何人的。
: 不过小黑孩还是挺牛的。能沉住气。
| r******s
发帖数: 519 | 5 hehe,不要被一时的上窜下跳给扰乱军心阿，继续等待补涨的到来。。。 | K*****n
发帖数: 1406 | 6 跟100股, 哈哈~~~
【在 h********g 的大作中提到】
: ###此帖已应当事人要求删除###
| d***y
发帖数: 2567 | 7 明天太阳能补涨可能较高。这都是short interest高的股的基本表现。就是让你在大盘
飚的时候难受。然后又一轮上涨。 | s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 8 If you are a serious solar investor, I'd like to share my 2 cents.
I notice that the CAPEX requirement for a poly plant has come down
dramatically recently which makes the value of LDK's poly plant dramatically
overvalued on its book.
LDK carries some $2B debt for its 16000MT poly plant (which is still not at
full capacity yet), while SOL and GCL have implied in their report that a
similar plant can be built for $600-700M in a year nowadays.
It's true that LDK is enjoying a golden year right now with high poly price,
probably jacking in some $300-400M profit this year before the low CAPEX
plants kick in. However that is not enough to offset their significant
overpayment for the initial investment.
To ride the poly market boom, people should buy DQ or even SOL instead. (GCL
seems too expensive to me.)
【在 s8 的大作中提到】
: 意大利尘埃落地。
| s8
发帖数: 424 | 9 Based on the deal in Jan., LDK sold 18.46% stake of the poly plant for $240M
, it means the estimation of the poly plant is about $1.3B, possible with
some debts. And LDK guarantteed an IRR 23%, then at the end of this year,
the poly plant worth about $1.6B.
LDK spent about $2B to build the poly plant, it should be fine if LDK could
IPO the poly plant later in Q4 for $1B by selling less than half of the
stake. And this is very likely given the current poly price and tight
situation.
Yes, SOL said they are going to spend $150M to expand their poly plant for
another 5000MT. I donot know how they can do that. Maybe they have the land
and even some equipments already ready? And if that is true, yearly 5000MT,
at current spot poly price more than $100/kg, even at cost $50/kg, the
profit per year is $250M. That means SOL can get all the money back for just
7 months. Do you think is it possible?
dramatically
at
price,
【在 s**********n 的大作中提到】
: If you are a serious solar investor, I'd like to share my 2 cents.
: I notice that the CAPEX requirement for a poly plant has come down
: dramatically recently which makes the value of LDK's poly plant dramatically
: overvalued on its book.
: LDK carries some $2B debt for its 16000MT poly plant (which is still not at
: full capacity yet), while SOL and GCL have implied in their report that a
: similar plant can be built for $600-700M in a year nowadays.
: It's true that LDK is enjoying a golden year right now with high poly price,
: probably jacking in some $300-400M profit this year before the low CAPEX
: plants kick in. However that is not enough to offset their significant
| U********n
发帖数: 1010 | 10 太牛了。
周五早上short就赚大了。
【在 h********g 的大作中提到】
: ###此帖已应当事人要求删除###
| s8
发帖数: 424 | 11 And below is a recent news:
日前，由波司登国际控股有限公司投资兴建的年产6000吨高纯硅项目在高邮经济开发区
内开工建设，这是高邮近年来引进的单体投资体量最大的项目，它的开工建设，将拉长
增粗高邮太阳能光伏产业链条
据了解，该高纯硅项目计划总投资60亿元，从签约到开工不到一个月时间。该项目拟采
用先进的生产工艺和设备，从事太阳能高纯多晶硅、单晶硅及其切片的研发、生产和销
售，投产后年产太阳能多晶硅6000吨，可实现年销售收入100亿元，将成为国内太阳能
光伏产业中从事多晶硅生产规模较大的厂家之一。
That's $895M to build a 6000MT poly plant. Compare to this, LDK does not
over estimate its poly plant.
dramatically
at
price,
【在 s**********n 的大作中提到】
: If you are a serious solar investor, I'd like to share my 2 cents.
: I notice that the CAPEX requirement for a poly plant has come down
: dramatically recently which makes the value of LDK's poly plant dramatically
: overvalued on its book.
: LDK carries some $2B debt for its 16000MT poly plant (which is still not at
: full capacity yet), while SOL and GCL have implied in their report that a
: similar plant can be built for $600-700M in a year nowadays.
: It's true that LDK is enjoying a golden year right now with high poly price,
: probably jacking in some $300-400M profit this year before the low CAPEX
: plants kick in. However that is not enough to offset their significant
| s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 12 I don't trust SOL completely, $170-180M capex for a 5000MT was shocking to
me. But if you look at GCL's plan, that's ￥17.7B CNY for 44000MT poly
capacity plus 3GW of wafer capacity. If you take $300M/GW for the wafer, it'
s about $400M for 10000MT of poly, close to SOL's claim. Combining these
information, I think there is some realistic way to significantly lower the
CAPEX, which is starting to be implemented right now.
No, SOL will not get their money back in 7 months. $100/kg is at the high
end of the spot market right now, and these companies all need long term
contract at lower price intead of fully taking the spot market volatility.
More importantly, it takes a year to finish that plant, and by that time the
golden era will very likely be gone.
My point is, LDK has probably one more golden year to compensate for their
overspending on that plant, but after that they will have to compete with
new capacities at lower CAPEX at whatever market price a year later.
If LDK can sell high on their poly plant, it's good for them. I doubt they
can sell high enough to book a profit if HK investors take a look at the
valuation of the whole LDK company. But yes, it's certainly a chance for LDK.
240M
could
land
【在 s8 的大作中提到】
: Based on the deal in Jan., LDK sold 18.46% stake of the poly plant for $240M
: , it means the estimation of the poly plant is about $1.3B, possible with
: some debts. And LDK guarantteed an IRR 23%, then at the end of this year,
: the poly plant worth about $1.6B.
: LDK spent about $2B to build the poly plant, it should be fine if LDK could
: IPO the poly plant later in Q4 for $1B by selling less than half of the
: stake. And this is very likely given the current poly price and tight
: situation.
: Yes, SOL said they are going to spend $150M to expand their poly plant for
: another 5000MT. I donot know how they can do that. Maybe they have the land
| s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 13 Thanks for the info. It looks this company had no previous experience on
poly? Also it looks like it includes wafering? Also is it possible to get $1
.5B revenue from a 6000MT poly plant? Err...
Unless both GCL and SOL are making scams, this new comer will be totally
screwed up. I'm still a little skeptical on GCL and SOL's numbers, but I don
't think a new player paying a lot more reduces GCL and SOL's credibility.
【在 s8 的大作中提到】
: And below is a recent news:
: 日前，由波司登国际控股有限公司投资兴建的年产6000吨高纯硅项目在高邮经济开发区
: 内开工建设，这是高邮近年来引进的单体投资体量最大的项目，它的开工建设，将拉长
: 增粗高邮太阳能光伏产业链条
: 据了解，该高纯硅项目计划总投资60亿元，从签约到开工不到一个月时间。该项目拟采
: 用先进的生产工艺和设备，从事太阳能高纯多晶硅、单晶硅及其切片的研发、生产和销
: 售，投产后年产太阳能多晶硅6000吨，可实现年销售收入100亿元，将成为国内太阳能
: 光伏产业中从事多晶硅生产规模较大的厂家之一。
: That's $895M to build a 6000MT poly plant. Compare to this, LDK does not
: over estimate its poly plant.
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