w****n
发帖数: 1737 | 1 2B是账面上损失。 其实这个trader是short CDX的。
按照现在的股市和经济宏观， 这个2B loss今年说不定还能
变profit.
JPM的其他主业都很健康，大家是不是被Bear Stern /AIG/ML
给吓过头了，
反正我今天入场钓鱼被我钓了一些，偶尔做几个短线，否则
这market太boring了。 | g8
发帖数: 3784 | | w****n
发帖数: 1737 | 3 JPM在业内属于很稳健的银行。 口碑一直不错。
一个企业的形象就跟一个人的性格一样， 不会太大变化。
这种事发生在JPM上很让人surprised尤其在这Dodd Frank的时候。
【在 g8 的大作中提到】
: 主要是心里没底
| y*******o
发帖数: 6632 | 4 I think they buy cdx i9(sell protection), if that is true, there is more
default comes
【在 w****n 的大作中提到】
: 2B是账面上损失。 其实这个trader是short CDX的。
: 按照现在的股市和经济宏观， 这个2B loss今年说不定还能
: 变profit.
: JPM的其他主业都很健康，大家是不是被Bear Stern /AIG/ML
: 给吓过头了，
: 反正我今天入场钓鱼被我钓了一些，偶尔做几个短线，否则
: 这market太boring了。
| h******n
发帖数: 2795 | 5 FBI已经介入调查了， JPM的CEO还要面对国会质询。
谁敢这个时候购买JPM？除非做短线。 | s*****e
发帖数: 16824 | 6 嗯，不确定性比较多，他们的loss应该还没完全报出来，不可能现在就全平了的，后面
可能损失更多，再说上次欧洲出事的时候，jpm到过30，这次应该至少也会到这个数。
【在 h******n 的大作中提到】
: FBI已经介入调查了， JPM的CEO还要面对国会质询。
: 谁敢这个时候购买JPM？除非做短线。
| w****n
发帖数: 1737 | 7 wsj epaper today has an article about the detail of the trade.
he short NA CDX 12 ??
【在 y*******o 的大作中提到】
: I think they buy cdx i9(sell protection), if that is true, there is more
: default comes
| w****n
发帖数: 1737 | 8 要透过现象看本质。
为什么国会要特别关照JPM.
因为Dimon多次公开反对Dodd Frank,认为过严的银行法规将降低美国银行的竞争力。 这
次出了个这个意外，你说这些政客不充分挖掘
岂不是浪费了“政客”这个头衔。
【在 h******n 的大作中提到】
: FBI已经介入调查了， JPM的CEO还要面对国会质询。
: 谁敢这个时候购买JPM？除非做短线。
| j*****h
发帖数: 3292 | 9
can you paste it here?
【在 w****n 的大作中提到】
: wsj epaper today has an article about the detail of the trade.
: he short NA CDX 12 ??
| w****n
发帖数: 1737 | 10 From 'Caveman' to 'Whale'
J.P. Morgan's Iksil Wagered Large, and Won, Last Year, but Bets in 2012
Soured
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405270230387960457740862
ml?KEYWORDS=london+whale
Months before Bruno Iksil became famous as the "London whale," the trader wh
o contributed to a loss of more than $2 billion at J.P. Morgan Chase JPM -4.
31% & Co., he earned a different nickname: the "Caveman," for pursuing trade
s that rivals sometimes thought were overly aggressive but often led to huge
profits.
Late last year, Mr. Iksil, a London-based trader in J.P. Morgan's Chief Inve
stment Office, turned heads among fellow debt-market traders with a wager ag
ainst a group of junk-bond-rated companies, traders say.
Enlarge Image
JpmWHALE0517
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At the time, Mr. Iksil had an approximately $1 billion bet that at least som
e of these companies would default on their debt in a matter of months, acco
rding to traders. Many hedge funds and rival banks viewed Mr. Iksil's move a
s risky and took the other side of his trade.
But when the parent companies of American Airlines and power company Dynegy
Inc. DYN -4.55% filed for bankruptcy protection last year, Mr. Iksil's posit
ions brought a windfall of about $450 million to J.P. Morgan, saddling hedge
funds and other rivals with similar-size losses.
For some in the market, this was their first experience trading against Mr.
Iksil. Some of these traders would get their revenge on Mr. Iksil months lat
er, taking the other side of bets that contributed to the more than $2 billi
on of losses for J.P. Morgan and raised questions about the bank's risk cont
rols. Mr. Iksil is expected to leave the bank but it isn't clear when, said
people familiar with the situation. Mr. Iksil didn't respond to a request fo
r comment.
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Bloomberg News
Bruno Iksil's bets in 2011 against junk-bond-rated companies garnered about
$450 million. Above, J.P. Morgan's London office at Canary Wharf.
More on J.P. Morgan
* White House Eyes Tougher Bank Rules
* Pay Clawbacks Raise Knotty Issues
* Funds Bet on J.P. Morgan Before Loss
The earlier bet attributed to Mr. Iksil that was focused on a derivatives in
dex tracking junk bonds suggests the CIO group, though it was charged with h
edging the bank's overall risks, also had a history of big trades with both
hefty upside and downside potential. This previous trade and its huge winnin
gs also could help explain why J.P. Morgan gave Mr. Iksil and the CIO unit s
o much money to trade with and why senior executives, including Chief Execut
ive James Dimon, weren't concerned about the risks the faulty recent trades
posed to the bank.
Mr. Iksil and the Chief Investment Office had a number of successes in recen
t years. They were part of a group that posted net income of $5.09 billion o
ver the past three years, according to regulatory filings, over 10% of J.P.
Morgan's $48.08 billion of profits over that period.
The size of the group's profits and descriptions of Mr. Iksil's previous tra
de may deepen questions over whether the unit's activities have been aimed a
t countering the bank's risks or targeted short-term trading profits. On a c
all with analysts last Thursday to disclose the $2 billion-plus loss, Mr. Di
mon said the CIO group's intent was to hedge the company's exposures in a di
fficult credit environment.
In the summer of last year, Mr. Iksil began trading a derivative index track
ing the credit-worthiness of 100 different junk-bond-rated companies, trader
s say. The index, called the CDX High Yield 11, launched in 2008, and three-
year trades based on the index were scheduled to mature, or finish trading,
on Dec. 20 of last year. Traders say they determined Mr. Iksil was involved
by speaking with brokers who dealt with him.
Mr. Iksil took a bearish tack on these companies, traders say. He bet agains
t a slice of the index that likely would pay off in a big way only if two or
more of these companies ran into deep trouble by late December of last year
. (A number of companies in the index already had defaulted by the summer of
last year.) When he began shorting, or betting against, the index, it was p
riced at about 87 cents on the dollar, traders say.
As Mr. Iksil was selling, hedge funds and other investors became enthused ab
out taking the other side of the trade, according to traders. The more Mr. I
ksil sold of the index, the more the rivals bought, betting it would strengt
hen. They say they expected a return of about 14% by the end of the year, as
long as no more than one company in the index defaulted. Their view: The co
mpanies in the index seemed reasonably healthy and only one, Dynegy, seemed
in danger of defaulting. To cushion their downside, some of these hedge fund
s separately bought protection on Dynegy.
In late September, with the index at about 82 cents, Eastman Kodak Co., EKDK
Q +1.85% a company in the index, surprised the market by drawing on its line
of credit, something that increased the likelihood of default. That move pu
shed the CDX lower, to below 70 cents on the dollar, according to one trader
. At that point, Mr. Iksil apparently was sitting on paper gains, while riva
l traders had paper losses.
Some of the hedge funds bailed out on their bullish bets, weakening the inde
x further, giving J.P. Morgan even larger profits. It isn't clear if Mr. Iks
il cashed in any profits at that point.
But by November, some remaining bullish traders who took the other side of J
.P. Morgan's trades began doubling down on their bets on the index, traders
say. Others established new wagers that it would strengthen. This buying hel
ped the index strengthen anew to about 83 cents, likely putting pressure on
Mr. Iksil's position.
"It seemed like the trade of the century to be long the index," said a hedge
-fund investor who bet on the index, taking the other side of trades he attr
ibuted to Mr. Iksil.
Even after Dynegy's holding company filed for bankruptcy protection on Nov.
7, the trade seemed like it still would be a loser for Mr. Iksil and J.P. Mo
rgan.
Only about six weeks remained until the trade was set to expire, and another
company needed to default for J.P. Morgan to make money and the bullish hed
ge funds to lose out.
Some traders took to calling Mr. Iksil a "caveman" for stubbornly pursing th
e trade. Mr. Iksil continued to bet against the index, however, and it soon
weakened, causing a buzz among unhappy rivals, these traders say.
"We called the trade the 'pain trade' and the 'widow maker'; it kept going d
own for no reason," said a trader at another firm, who called his broker and
says he was told it was Mr. Iksil who was doing all the bearish trading. "I
t felt like Bruno was trying to wipe everyone out."
Then on Nov. 29, in something of a shock, AMR Corp., American Airlines' pare
nt company and one of the companies in the index, filed for bankruptcy prote
ction. "People freaked out," recalls a hedge-fund trader.
The index weakened significantly, allowing J.P. Morgan to rack up about $450
million in total profits from the trade, according to traders. Rival firms
suffered similar-size losses.
It capped a successful year for Mr. Iksil and his group, though the profits
would be more than offset this year when they shifted to a more bullish tack
on corporate credit, losing $2 billion-plus in the process.
Now, J.P. Morgan is examining whether the past successes of Mr. Iksil and hi
s group contributed to the recent losses, perhaps because the past trades ma
de the bank overconfident about the CIO group, according to a person close t
o the matter.
—Katy Burne contributed to this article.
【在 j*****h 的大作中提到】
:
: can you paste it here?
| c********a
发帖数: 6466 | 11 我看别的新闻说法可不一样。
这个2BILLION LOSS是用来对冲的，那就是说还有个别的巨大无比的被对冲的RISKY投资
，对冲没有走上反比的时候，那个恐怕更危险，比如European mortgage-backed bonds
and other complex debt securities such as collateralised loan obligations
in all markets for three years
http://www.cnbc.com/id/47469753 | o**p
发帖数: 199 | 12 JPM bet US company will not default, is it?
I am in. But again I lost a lot of money in 2008 buying big US banks. |
|
