l*****u
发帖数: 12114 | |
V*****2
发帖数: 7930 | |
M*****t
发帖数: 1842 | 3 dead fish
【在 l*****u 的大作中提到】
: 大家say say?
|
q********g
发帖数: 10694 | 4 it is never too late to cut MSFT anytime. |
g*****a
发帖数: 1692 | |
s*******i
发帖数: 2386 | 6 还会跌，去30
【在 l*****u 的大作中提到】
: 大家say say?
|
E*********r
发帖数: 4984 | 7 会涨2-3%， 投资人会认为周五反应过度。Microsoft不管如何是一个有前途（钱途）的
公司，只是把Steve Ballmer炒掉可能成长就快也更健康了，那厮一事无成，看着就窝
火。不知道盖茨怎么会瞎眼看上了他？ |
x*******d
发帖数: 196 | |
l*****u
发帖数: 12114 | 9 SB当年可是顶级SALES，大门没他几乎就没有微软。至于顶级SALES能不能做公司的头就
是另外一回事，大门干到现在也不见的能好哪里去。
【在 E*********r 的大作中提到】
: 会涨2-3%， 投资人会认为周五反应过度。Microsoft不管如何是一个有前途（钱途）的
: 公司，只是把Steve Ballmer炒掉可能成长就快也更健康了，那厮一事无成，看着就窝
: 火。不知道盖茨怎么会瞎眼看上了他？
|
l*****u
发帖数: 12114 | 10 我这站在31.31的不知道算不算炒。。。。。
【在 x*******d 的大作中提到】
: 不好说。今天抄的人，赚的概率大。
|
|
|
u******b
发帖数: 483 | 11 大盘悲观的话，MSFT还有下行的空间。另外还要看Appl的盈利。如果Appl惨，MSFT就能
稳住甚至涨点；如果AAPL盈利极好的话，MSFT绝对还要跌到25左右。 （毕竟前几个月
涨得太多了。 ） |
x*******d
发帖数: 196 | 12 大牛厉害！
应该没有问题。
【在 l*****u 的大作中提到】
: 我这站在31.31的不知道算不算炒。。。。。
|
d**y
发帖数: 18174 | 13 肯定会涨
【在 l*****u 的大作中提到】
: 大家say say?
|
d**y
发帖数: 18174 | 14 等着发财吧
【在 l*****u 的大作中提到】
: 我这站在31.31的不知道算不算炒。。。。。
|
E*********r
发帖数: 4984 | 15 我其实也是指的现在的Steve Ballmer，一个CEO做了13年好像有点长，基本没有啥冲劲
了。做游戏不如Sony 的PS， 做键盘鼠标不如Logitech， 做平板电脑拉倒吧，做手机
软件我也不说了，都是跟在别人屁股后面，然后看不行就削价。 真可惜当时Gates没有
软硬兼施把另外一个Steve, Steve Jobs 搞去做微软的CEO。
【在 l*****u 的大作中提到】
: SB当年可是顶级SALES，大门没他几乎就没有微软。至于顶级SALES能不能做公司的头就
: 是另外一回事，大门干到现在也不见的能好哪里去。
|
g*******s
发帖数: 2828 | 16 短期不知道，长线还是很有趣的。
仔细看一下MSFT各个division，MBD(office) has run rate EBIT of $20B. Migration
to cloud will greatly cut down piracy, which alone should drive 5%ish
growth for the next few years. The competition from freeware from GOOG is
greatly overblown (does anyone remember how the free office from Sun will
kill MSFT? where is it now?) Then you got S&T division with run rate EBIT of
almost $10B growing at 10% driven by market share gain of SQL server (
slowly matching ORCL's performance at maybe 1/3 to 1/2 price, a tough
proposition to beat). Note MSFT S&T division had the best growth rate among
large-cap enterprise software companies over last 2 years, better than IBM/
ORCL and even SAP.
Neither of these divisions has any tie to windows. One could almost argue a
Windows central strategy has held back Office. Also both divisions have
shown incredible multi-year contract growth in recent quarters, so MSFT is
slowly converting transactional revenue into recurring revenue, the holy
grail on Wall Street. Actually the same dynamic is happening with Windows,
as more and more enterprise customers are signing multi-year contracts
instead of one-time license fee. So despite all the issues on the consumer
side, Windows will have a much longer tail than people think in enterprises.
So you add the two growing divisions, they will do about $30B EBIT next 12
months against current EV of $200B. If anything, these two divisions could
be easily worth 10x EBIT (or 15x P/E) or $300B, more than current market cap
.
Then you get Windows, Search, XBox for free. clearly they are worth
something.
The big risk at this price is not really Windows. It is whether Ballmer will
destroy more value. This is a legit concern, although time is clearly
running against him, especially with more activists getting involved. My
guess is he has one last shot after the recent re-org and probably 18-24
months. if there is no significant improvement, he will be ousted and we
could potentially see a break-up of the company.
So upside is to $40+ in 2 years with a 3% dividend to boot. Downside is dead
money (it could temporarily fall below $30, but I am virtually certain it
won't be below $30 in 2 years).
whether that is good enough, it is up to you. Venturesome people could
probably look to buy some ITM LEAP calls to get some extra juice. |
l*****u
发帖数: 12114 | 17 不能怪SB和大门，一个那么大的盘子不是像怎么搞就怎么搞，太复杂。微软的财力是雄
厚的，应该有LONG的信心，不过短期抽插不好说。
头就
【在 E*********r 的大作中提到】
: 我其实也是指的现在的Steve Ballmer，一个CEO做了13年好像有点长，基本没有啥冲劲
: 了。做游戏不如Sony 的PS， 做键盘鼠标不如Logitech， 做平板电脑拉倒吧，做手机
: 软件我也不说了，都是跟在别人屁股后面，然后看不行就削价。 真可惜当时Gates没有
: 软硬兼施把另外一个Steve, Steve Jobs 搞去做微软的CEO。
|
b*****p
发帖数: 9649 | 18 这篇要顶！
好文章！
谢谢大牛！
Migration
of
among
【在 g*******s 的大作中提到】
: 短期不知道，长线还是很有趣的。
: 仔细看一下MSFT各个division，MBD(office) has run rate EBIT of $20B. Migration
: to cloud will greatly cut down piracy, which alone should drive 5%ish
: growth for the next few years. The competition from freeware from GOOG is
: greatly overblown (does anyone remember how the free office from Sun will
: kill MSFT? where is it now?) Then you got S&T division with run rate EBIT of
: almost $10B growing at 10% driven by market share gain of SQL server (
: slowly matching ORCL's performance at maybe 1/3 to 1/2 price, a tough
: proposition to beat). Note MSFT S&T division had the best growth rate among
: large-cap enterprise software companies over last 2 years, better than IBM/
|
l*****u
发帖数: 12114 | 19 问题是这个价位值不值得留着做LONG，还是见高就跑了，赚点巴肥钱？这样也等不到分
红了。唉，高不成低不就的。
【在 d**y 的大作中提到】
: 等着发财吧
|
g*******s
发帖数: 2828 | 20 这话在理。其实公司做大了，掌门人自然而然要守成，里面各种利害关系/权力斗争都
会阻碍在外人看来是理所当然的东西。比如当年IBM居然在5年里把现在的Oracle/MSFT/
Intel拱手让人做大，再比如Intel从2003好像就搞mobile chip，结果还是干不过ARM，
还有现在风头无双的Google,有人用google+么？再过十年，Google肯定和今日的MSFT一
样。
Jobs英年早逝其实也筑就他的神话。说实在就算他还在，Apple的颓势也无法阻挡，占
的pie太大了。
【在 l*****u 的大作中提到】
: 不能怪SB和大门，一个那么大的盘子不是像怎么搞就怎么搞，太复杂。微软的财力是雄
: 厚的，应该有LONG的信心，不过短期抽插不好说。
:
: 头就
|
a*******8
发帖数: 2299 | |
