L******f
发帖数: 5368 | 1 http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/gold-crushed-2013-losse
Gold's brutal 2013 continues. The price of the yellow metal is dropping
again, off more than 2% today and breaking well below critical support. As
discussed on Breakout just last week, chartists saw $1,305 as a stop-loss
level. Once that support broke this morning the sellers came out in droves.
David Lutz, head of ETF trading at Stifel Nicolaus, says reports are
circulating that central banks are monetizing their gold holdings, adding
supply to an already weak market. He adds that the Bank of Japan is
concerned about deflation and India is still clamping down on their imports
of gold, eliminating even more potential bidders. "That's a lot of headwinds
for the metal this morning," Lutz says in the attached video. "That big gap
down that we saw took out the August lows. That triggered a lot of stop
losses from the quant shops."
For those uninitiated with trading terms, Lutz is essentially saying
institutions can't find any good reasons to get brave and buy gold at these
levels but there are some good arguments for selling, at least from a
technical perspective.
Sitting just under $1,270 on Friday, gold is stuck in a no man's land for
chartists. Lutz says there's some hope that the $1,250 price point might
provide some support "but it's a pretty tough trade at this point."
For gold devotees none of the above will be quickly shrugged off as the kind
of fear mongering that lets them add to their gold positions at relatively
cheap prices. Your portfolio is yours to do with as you see fit, but be
advised that after more than a decade of moving higher it could be years
before institutional traders become confident that gold is going to move
back to its old highs anytime soon. |
L******f
发帖数: 5368 | 2 参见本狼的预言.
http://www.mitbbs.com/article0/Stock/34846393_0.html
imports
headwinds
【在 L******f 的大作中提到】
: http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/gold-crushed-2013-losse
: Gold's brutal 2013 continues. The price of the yellow metal is dropping
: again, off more than 2% today and breaking well below critical support. As
: discussed on Breakout just last week, chartists saw $1,305 as a stop-loss
: level. Once that support broke this morning the sellers came out in droves.
: David Lutz, head of ETF trading at Stifel Nicolaus, says reports are
: circulating that central banks are monetizing their gold holdings, adding
: supply to an already weak market. He adds that the Bank of Japan is
: concerned about deflation and India is still clamping down on their imports
: of gold, eliminating even more potential bidders. "That's a lot of headwinds
|
B*******n
发帖数: 20645 | 3 GLD @120 should be a good entry point.
Bigwet's opinion only |
L******f
发帖数: 5368 | 4 这个是本狼6月27日写的。
执有黄金的利弊和黄金价格预测
黄金的最大问题在于两条：
1。储蓄成本
黄金买了，存储需要交存储费用。
2。黄金无息
黄金不可能生成利息，产生利润。
所以，如果用股票分析方法分析货币
和黄金，黄金相当于负生成的股票。
yield是负的股票。需要不断往里面
填钱。唯一赚钱的机会是Capital
Gain。相反，货币可以生成利息，
相当于正生成的股票。yield是正的。
所以，在正常情况下，执有货币优于
执有黄金。在反常情况下，如战争，
动荡，政府陷于经济困境滥印钞票时，
执有黄金优于执有货币。
在过去几年，由于世界范围的经济危机，
各国政府为了刺激经济而滥印钞票，
导致投资者心理恐慌，黄金价格飙涨。
随着经济危机的消退经济复苏，
执有货币将优于执有黄金，黄金价格
下跌不可避免。
为此，本狼立此为照，预言黄金价格
将跌到700美元之下。
【在 B*******n 的大作中提到】
: GLD @120 should be a good entry point.
: Bigwet's opinion only
|
c***s
发帖数: 1139 | 5
我觉得要跌到115 再反弹吧。
【在 B*******n 的大作中提到】
: GLD @120 should be a good entry point.
: Bigwet's opinion only
|
m*****u
发帖数: 5534 | |
d*****d
发帖数: 10658 | 7 “政府陷于经济困境滥印钞票时，
执有黄金优于执有货币。”
难道现在不是这样吗？否则欧债危机怎么就莫名其妙解决了？美国不印那么多钞票怎么
还债呢？
【在 L******f 的大作中提到】
: 这个是本狼6月27日写的。
: 执有黄金的利弊和黄金价格预测
: 黄金的最大问题在于两条：
: 1。储蓄成本
: 黄金买了，存储需要交存储费用。
: 2。黄金无息
: 黄金不可能生成利息，产生利润。
: 所以，如果用股票分析方法分析货币
: 和黄金，黄金相当于负生成的股票。
: yield是负的股票。需要不断往里面
|
h*****e
发帖数: 3624 | 8 本狼牛逼
先不谈这次
6月27日写后第二天黄金触底反弹250点。。。
【在 L******f 的大作中提到】
: 这个是本狼6月27日写的。
: 执有黄金的利弊和黄金价格预测
: 黄金的最大问题在于两条：
: 1。储蓄成本
: 黄金买了，存储需要交存储费用。
: 2。黄金无息
: 黄金不可能生成利息，产生利润。
: 所以，如果用股票分析方法分析货币
: 和黄金，黄金相当于负生成的股票。
: yield是负的股票。需要不断往里面
|
p********o
发帖数: 8012 | 9 黄金最精辟的分析在这里:
黄金的价值不在于产不产生利息。世界上货币财富永远增加，黄金的最大威胁在于通胀
替代品，比如房地产。 |
E*********r
发帖数: 4984 | |
