S********e
发帖数: 29 | 1 小弟一片拙作。长期潜水， 望回报股版， 望能抛砖引玉。 | i*******e
发帖数: 1904 | | i*******e
发帖数: 1904 | 3 2.用smartphone remote启动加热你的车，直接把gps detination从手机传输到车辆。
3.用app来自动控制屋子的温度，湿度等参数。自动控制AC，humidifier，etc。
5.给老年人用的killer application。假如实现的话，孝子们会给居家的老人一人配一
只的。 | t******g
发帖数: 462 | 4 Just think what happens when your phone is hacked or lost.
I am not sure what Apple can contribute to your vision since most of the new
functions you are looking for will be implemented by software. Phones
become commodities especially with Xiaomi etc competition.
Unless Apple gets into ECommerce or some other new area, it is already
peaked and will be in decline as profit per phone is decreasing.
【在 S********e 的大作中提到】
: 小弟一片拙作。长期潜水， 望回报股版， 望能抛砖引玉。
| p*******o
发帖数: 1464 | 5 写的很不错。你让我感到有点兴奋地期待未来的生活。呵呵。 | S********e
发帖数: 29 | 6 I agree with you. Security is the top concern, when more and more
functionalities are put into one single device.
I also agree that Apple needs to find new playground. Currently they don't
let their believers run their imagination very far, hence limiting their
upside on stocks.
My arguments are:
1) Apple seems to be entering payment business and health care device
business. When apple claimed to have ‘reinvented’ something, what they did
really is to make something better, and win a dominant portion of customers
, and destroy some old players in the existing playground. Apple has
explained its idea already for many times – they want to focus on making
the best product. My take on this is, even if they don’t ‘invent’ a new
market or business model, as long as they enter an old field and provide a
sexy killer product, they are going to make a ton.
2) Apple’s strength is to combine hardware and software design and
implementation. Very often what seems to be a software issue, if you want to
do it ‘correctly’ to make it super usable, you need to make hardware
changes. What I’ve seen is phone makers all keep adding sensors, so there
could be new data, which allows new software tricks. So new ideas sometimes
first lead to hardware change, and then software change.
But of course I share your concern. As I said in my post, Apple’s technical
moat is becoming narrow. They are a lot easier to be copied nowadays,
compared to when they just introduced iPhone is 07-08. That’s why it’s
always a ‘bet’ on Apple, not a ‘secure deposit'.
This conversation is great, let's keep it going.
new
【在 t******g 的大作中提到】
: Just think what happens when your phone is hacked or lost.
: I am not sure what Apple can contribute to your vision since most of the new
: functions you are looking for will be implemented by software. Phones
: become commodities especially with Xiaomi etc competition.
: Unless Apple gets into ECommerce or some other new area, it is already
: peaked and will be in decline as profit per phone is decreasing.
| s***d
发帖数: 15421 | 7 smart home一直是热点。 但是就如我另外一个帖子说得 marketing才是最难的。你是
以什么为中心 手机 还是 电视？还是多中心 或者无中心？ 这些要等市场检验了 才有
普。
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 7.8
【在 S********e 的大作中提到】
: 小弟一片拙作。长期潜水， 望回报股版， 望能抛砖引玉。
| S********e
发帖数: 29 | 8 我的看法是单中心，手机为中心。就一条：随身携带，任何地方有信号就能控制。
smart home很长时间困在小范围geek中有两问题：一是贵，二是DIY成份高，门槛高。
我期待像苹果这样的公司进来，因为一来简单易用，二来大批果粉不差钱。
【在 s***d 的大作中提到】
: smart home一直是热点。 但是就如我另外一个帖子说得 marketing才是最难的。你是
: 以什么为中心 手机 还是 电视？还是多中心 或者无中心？ 这些要等市场检验了 才有
: 普。
:
: ★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 7.8
| S********e
发帖数: 29 | 9 而且担心手机单中心流量或者耗电的话， 有个apple tv或者chromecast就解决了。实
际上还是手机为中心。
感觉就好像以前大家都用台式机， 工作站。现在基本都用笔记本， 90%的人已经够用
了， 不够用的人还是选择有一个笔记本， 然后远程登陆工作站或者机群。
手机就是笔记本， 家里的一个apple tv/chromecast系统就是工作站。 现在也有一些
geek朋友在家里架设服务器什么的，以后必然有非常powerful的简单易用的家用服务器
作为“手机-家庭中心咨询处理器-智能家电”的出现。一般家庭就“手机+智能家电”
就够了。
所以我觉得手机怎么都是中心。 就算有辅助的二中心出现， 手机作为随身第一中心的
地位也是牢固的。
【在 s***d 的大作中提到】
: smart home一直是热点。 但是就如我另外一个帖子说得 marketing才是最难的。你是
: 以什么为中心 手机 还是 电视？还是多中心 或者无中心？ 这些要等市场检验了 才有
: 普。
:
: ★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 7.8
| S********e
发帖数: 29 | 10 sayid哥们儿,我把你别的帖子里的相关内容贴过来了。
“物联网的一个问题时 美个国家国情不一样。比如美国 美国人爱看电视 物联网就会以
电视 为核心 或者是settop box为核心。很多人家里宽带也是cable internet。 中国
亚洲又不同 以互联网为主 没人用cable。有cable也不怎么看, 所以国内搞网络电视
比如letv 乐事就把自己的网络媒体绑在了ip tv上。”
【在 s***d 的大作中提到】
: smart home一直是热点。 但是就如我另外一个帖子说得 marketing才是最难的。你是
: 以什么为中心 手机 还是 电视？还是多中心 或者无中心？ 这些要等市场检验了 才有
: 普。
:
: ★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 7.8
| | | M********i
发帖数: 4082 | | t******g
发帖数: 462 | 12 Apple does hardware and system software. Their application software is very
bad actually. In terms of building a e-commerce system, they can draw
experience from managing app store, but their actual strength is not
managing this type of eco system. Some people said AAPL is losing money in
App Store even though revenue is high.
The other argument against E-Commerce is Amazon and ebay. At the same time,
FB and TWTR etc are all trying to compete here.
There is no way health care watches are a market as big as iPhone. Does
everyone need a $300 iWatch to monitor heart beats? If you lower the price,
the profit margin is lower. You can not bet Apple's future on health care
device (they do not even build application/business software) because AAPL
too large now. Market Cap is 500 Billion. They need to sell $700 per unit
iPhone to maintain the profit margin and market cap. How exactly can you
maintain the price at $700 when every next gen android phone comes down to $
200?
How many phones can one person carry? Three? AAPL's business is peaked and
it will decline unless they move to a brand new field and innovate.
did
customers
【在 S********e 的大作中提到】
: I agree with you. Security is the top concern, when more and more
: functionalities are put into one single device.
: I also agree that Apple needs to find new playground. Currently they don't
: let their believers run their imagination very far, hence limiting their
: upside on stocks.
: My arguments are:
: 1) Apple seems to be entering payment business and health care device
: business. When apple claimed to have ‘reinvented’ something, what they did
: really is to make something better, and win a dominant portion of customers
: , and destroy some old players in the existing playground. Apple has
| l******k
发帖数: 240 | 13 嗯，以后对抗入侵者就像玩cs一样
【在 M********i 的大作中提到】
: 期待爱疯推出自动射杀入侵者的功能
| c******n
发帖数: 911 | | S********e
发帖数: 29 | 15 your points are well received.
I see amazing future for mobile devices, but as you said, it's hard to say
Apple would make more profit from it. I wish they find a way.
To seriously improve their stocks up, they better come up with new things so
out-of-box that blow us away.
My question for you is: is it possible that smart phone market has NOT
reached its peak, yet? Even if it has, do you see Apple getting some market
share back from Samsung? I have some friends switching back to apple after
5s release, I don't know about your experience.
very
,
,
【在 t******g 的大作中提到】
: Apple does hardware and system software. Their application software is very
: bad actually. In terms of building a e-commerce system, they can draw
: experience from managing app store, but their actual strength is not
: managing this type of eco system. Some people said AAPL is losing money in
: App Store even though revenue is high.
: The other argument against E-Commerce is Amazon and ebay. At the same time,
: FB and TWTR etc are all trying to compete here.
: There is no way health care watches are a market as big as iPhone. Does
: everyone need a $300 iWatch to monitor heart beats? If you lower the price,
: the profit margin is lower. You can not bet Apple's future on health care
| S********e
发帖数: 29 | 16 I wish I could pump AAPL, sir.
I wish all of us on this forum added together can pump AAPL.
I am long AAPL, yes. But even Ichan is having a hard time.
Apple needs to save itself by innovation.
【在 c******n 的大作中提到】
: pump apple stock?
| s***d
发帖数: 15421 | 17 apple 应该是想以itv为中心。但是cable company 不会乐意。
【在 S********e 的大作中提到】
: 我的看法是单中心，手机为中心。就一条：随身携带，任何地方有信号就能控制。
: smart home很长时间困在小范围geek中有两问题：一是贵，二是DIY成份高，门槛高。
: 我期待像苹果这样的公司进来，因为一来简单易用，二来大批果粉不差钱。
| S********e
发帖数: 29 | 18 现在确实是机会当前的乱世， 就说我在家看youtube吧：
1）电视能直接上网看
2）apple tv能看， 不用手机
3）手机能看， 可以通过apple tv/chromecast传电视上
4）chromecast能看（我买来瞎玩）
5）ipad能看， 能通过apple tv/chromecast传电视上
忘了说， 我家没cable...
---
编辑：
6）笔记本也能看， 也能通过apple tv然后把电视当第二屏幕。。。
7）PS3也能看貌似。。。
【在 s***d 的大作中提到】
: apple 应该是想以itv为中心。但是cable company 不会乐意。
| t******g
发帖数: 462 | 19 Samsung and Apple can fight their zero sum game but that growth is not
sustainable.
In my opinion, smart phone hardware is peaking soon because Xiaomi has shown
to us they can sell a competitive highend product at less than 1/3 the
price of iPhone5s, signaling the drop of profit margin is coming, like it or
not. The system software side, Android is cheaper than developing your own.
So I am not sure if iOS can keep up because Apple carries extra R&D cost of
iOS onto every product with no one to share.
market
【在 S********e 的大作中提到】
: 现在确实是机会当前的乱世， 就说我在家看youtube吧：
: 1）电视能直接上网看
: 2）apple tv能看， 不用手机
: 3）手机能看， 可以通过apple tv/chromecast传电视上
: 4）chromecast能看（我买来瞎玩）
: 5）ipad能看， 能通过apple tv/chromecast传电视上
: 忘了说， 我家没cable...
: ---
: 编辑：
: 6）笔记本也能看， 也能通过apple tv然后把电视当第二屏幕。。。
| S********e
发帖数: 29 | 20 I appreciate your reply, trosling Sir.
Apple is now a value rather than growth stock, a bit sad for me. Tim is
buying back share just to hold it above $500.
I look forward to the promised 2014 'new category', yet if it's simply an
iWatch which does what people have already imagined, I doubt it would be big
hit.
Again, I appreciate your thoughts.
shown
or
own.
of
【在 t******g 的大作中提到】
: Samsung and Apple can fight their zero sum game but that growth is not
: sustainable.
: In my opinion, smart phone hardware is peaking soon because Xiaomi has shown
: to us they can sell a competitive highend product at less than 1/3 the
: price of iPhone5s, signaling the drop of profit margin is coming, like it or
: not. The system software side, Android is cheaper than developing your own.
: So I am not sure if iOS can keep up because Apple carries extra R&D cost of
: iOS onto every product with no one to share.
:
: market
| S********e
发帖数: 29 | 21 I've been keeping an eye on the Xiaomi impact too. After seeing what Huawei
has done to its peers, I feel much more positive for Xiaomi.
I think Apple wants to keep its profit margin by boosting its 'luxury'
status, Their recent head-of-retail hire of former Burberry CEO is quite a
clear message. However, given it's a right stratergy to pull oneself out of
the hardware specs war, on the user experience side, I think all Apple's
peers are catching up (or have caught up). Then what's left? The brand... As
a long, I don't like this stroy line, therefore my eyes are on the 2014 new
category.
On a side note, I believe Xiaomi is still a private company, I wonder when
is their IPO... Or if you have ideas how to invest in Xiaomi indirectly?
shown
or
own.
of
【在 t******g 的大作中提到】
: Samsung and Apple can fight their zero sum game but that growth is not
: sustainable.
: In my opinion, smart phone hardware is peaking soon because Xiaomi has shown
: to us they can sell a competitive highend product at less than 1/3 the
: price of iPhone5s, signaling the drop of profit margin is coming, like it or
: not. The system software side, Android is cheaper than developing your own.
: So I am not sure if iOS can keep up because Apple carries extra R&D cost of
: iOS onto every product with no one to share.
:
: market
| O*********h
发帖数: 4674 | 22 看到一哥们说app store是亏钱的，我大惑不解，这肿么可能
难道managing app store cost这么高?
求elaboration. |
|
