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发帖数: 1024 | 1 Oil Prices: Four Experts Size Up the Energy Market
Four experts explain what’s ahead and highlight the best investment
opportunities in the energy sector.
February 14, 2015
Perhaps the biggest surprise of 2014 was the sharp decline in oil prices.
Black gold fell almost 60% from its summer peak of $107 to a low of $44 in
January, before enjoying a nice bounce to a recent $53. The reverberations—
good and bad—are being felt around the world, from the oil kingdoms of the
Middle East to Argentina, Russia, and here in the U.S.
The downturn will be the first big test of the U.S. oil-production
renaissance. New technologies, such as horizontal drilling and the ability
to draw oil from shale rock, have enabled companies to extract more oil from
new places faster than anyone expected. In fact, they have led to a 41%
reduction in U.S. imports since 2007.
But with the benefits have come some negatives. Increased production,
coupled with slower-than-expected growth in demand has led to today’s
sharply lower oil price. What’s good news for consumers, however, can be
problematic for producers. Only companies that can slash expenses and were
wise enough not to take on too much debt during the boom times stand a
chance of prospering today.
Barron’s recently asked a group of industry pros to walk us through the
intricacies of pricing oil—and predict where prices will be a year from now
. They also identified which companies could survive these turbulent times,
and might even come out ahead.
John Dowd, who manages $4.7 billion for Fidelity, provides an optimistic
view of oil prices—and energy stocks—a year out. His largest fund, the $2
billion Fidelity Select Energy (ticker: FSENX), has outpaced the competition
in the past five years by almost four percentage points annually, rising 6.
2% a year in that period. Just as important, the fund outperformed during
the tough market of the past year, falling 7%, versus the competition’s 13%
decline.
Jerry Swank brings wisdom accumulated over more than 40 years in the
industry. In 2001, he founded his research firm, Swank Capital, and later
launched Cushing Asset Management, known as a pioneer in master-limited-
partnership, or MLP, investing. Cushing had $4.3 billion under management
last July, including the $2 billion MainStay Cushing MLP Premier fund (CSHAX
), when the firm’s open-end funds were purchased by New York Life’s
MainStay Investment arm.
Shaun Hong of Jennison Associates is the most skeptical about oil’s price
recovery. He has co-managed the Prudential Jennison Utility fund (PRUAX)
since 2000, which has crushed its peers by rising, on average, nearly 10% a
year. He took over the Prudential Jennison Equity Income fund (JDEZX) in
2007. Both funds have a higher-than-average allocation to energy stocks.
Gibson Cooper, a high-yield-bond portfolio manager and senior energy analyst
at Western Asset Management, provides a fixed-income expert’s perspective
on the oil patch. Bonds sold by energy companies account for about 15%of the
high-yield market, among the largest share ever, due to the more than $50
billion of new debt these companies sold each year from 2012 through 2014.
The new-issue pipeline has since slowed to a trickle, and many bond prices
have dropped sharply, which could spell good opportunities for careful
investors.
Barron’s: Why have oil prices dropped so precipitously since last summer?
Enlarge Image Close
John Dowd: Demand for oil had been increasing by one million barrels a day,
on average, from 2010 through 2013. But that growth slowed to about 700,000
barrels a day in 2014. At the same time, non-OPEC supply accelerated by more
than 1.5 million barrels a day. A classic supply-and-demand imbalance
emerged.
Which non-OPEC countries are producing more?
Dowd: Primarily the U.S. During 2012 and 2013, the growth in U.S. shale-oil
production was partially offset by declines in Iran and Libya. But in 2014,
Libya actually increased production, creating an imbalance in supply.
How much excess oil is there?
Jerry Swank: We are not talking about massive oversupply. The world consumes
92 million barrels a day, and there’s an oversupply of 1.5 million to two
million barrels a day. The price drop shows how precarious the market is
when just a slight supply imbalance causes crazily violent swings. The
market is telling us that oil was way overpriced last summer.
Why did demand slow?
Swank: Economic growth in Europe and Asia has been slower than expected, and
the strong dollar made oil more expensive for countries to purchase. That
was especially true in emerging markets, which drove much of the demand
growth in recent years.
How will the market return to balance?
Shaun Hong: You really need demand to grow at a decent pace in order to get
oil back up to a $60-ish level. A production decline would also accelerate a
price recovery.
What is demand growth expected to be this year?
Dowd: The International Energy Agency, a government-supported research group
, is estimating demand growth in 2015 at 900,000 barrels a day. That would
be in line with the average over the past 10 years.
Hong: Do you believe that forecast, given how much China’s economy has
slowed?
Dowd: Yes. When oil prices decline, demand generally picks up. We are
already seeing a change in consumer behavior.
It sounds like you don’t believe that forecast, Shaun.
Hong: I’m skeptical. The U.S. has seen a pickup in gasoline demand. But
international demand may not increase as much as people expect. So maybe
demand growth is closer to 800,000 barrels. This whole rebound may take a
little bit longer—an extra quarter or two—to play out.
Why would growth in demand be slower than expectations?
Hong: Gasoline is the biggest source of demand for oil. Europe’s economy is
weak, and its high gasoline taxes mean that gas prices won’t fall, on a
percentage basis, as much as crude prices do. Likewise, China’s economy may
not grow as fast as expected. And demand could be weaker than predicted in
countries like Indonesia or India, which have recently reduced their fuel
subsidies because they can’t afford the cost.
Beyond excess supply, what else caused oil prices to tumble?
Gibson Cooper: The real straw that broke the camel’s back was when Saudi
Arabia discounted the price of its own crude in October; then other OPEC
members also discounted. Around Thanksgiving, the market thought OPEC would
cut production by 500,000 barrels to support the price of oil. But it didn’
t, and oil prices fell further.
Why do you think Saudi Arabia and OPEC allowed the price of oil to fall?
Lower oil prices hurt their revenues and budgets.
Cooper: Some people think there’s a benefit to bringing prices down just to
hurt Iran and Russia. But the Saudis see the increasing efficiency of U.S.
shale-oil production, and see the writing on the wall: At some point, the U.
S. will be exporting oil. A lower oil price is a way for Saudi Arabia to
slow down U.S. production growth.
Swank: Yes, although the Saudis don’t have much market share left here—we
barely import anything from them, 600,000 to 800,000 barrels a day. They don
’t like seeing other OPEC members take market share in India and China.
They are trying to defend their market share by allowing oil prices to drop.
Saudi Arabia has a budget surplus and can withstand lower prices. That’s
not the case for other OPEC countries.
Dowd: They also have an eye on the risk that higher oil prices will
encourage the development and use of alternative sources of energy. A lower
price of oil solves several problems for them.
Oil is purchased and sold in dollars. What impact has currency had?
Swank: We’ve had a very strong dollar, and there is a high correlation
between oil and the dollar. I’d say maybe $10 of the oil-price collapse in
September was dollar-related.
Did speculators have a role?
Hong: Absolutely, speculators are a factor. But the price decline was most
impacted by the general buyer of oil. Airlines, for example, historically
have hedged some of their fuel expense. But when oil prices started to move
down drastically, volatility went up, and hedging became more expensive. So
airlines pulled back on hedging. Also, users of oil will reduce their buying
. Instead of holding two or three months of inventory, they’ll cut back and
try to buy oil at a lower price in the future. So there is a de-stocking
that goes on.
How are oil companies responding?
Dowd: Exploration-and-production companies are aggressively curtailing
spending, announcing 50%-plus cuts for the year, which is dramatic.
And what will that mean for output?
Dowd: Companies are revising their production guidance downward for 2015,
and a lot of them are expecting flat production for 2016. Most companies
based their guidance on oil priced at $65. If today’s prices hold, there
will be another round of cuts to come.
When do you think prices will bottom?
Cooper: The consensus view is that prices bottom in the second quarter. We
still expect production growth in the U.S., and the market should get a
little bit of a tail wind from the oil-rig count falling. The count peaked
in early October, and it has fallen by 30%, or 470 rigs, already. As it
continues falling, it will cause slower production and higher prices. But it
takes time.
Swank: I don’t know if you are ever going to get an actual year-over-year
decline in production. It’s not a perfect analogy, but the natural-gas rig
count is down by two-thirds, and gas prices have fallen to $3 from $12 [per
million BTUs]. Even so, production rose because producers got more efficient
. If oil producers can do the same thing, oil production could plateau—and
not decline—despite lower prices.
If there are fewer rigs drilling for oil, how can supply increase?
Hong: Because all rigs aren’t the same. The wells created by vertical
drilling rigs produce fewer barrels than wells drilled by horizontal rigs.
Vertical rigs have one pipe that drills straight down. Horizontal rigs drill
down and then horizontally, so they cover a much wider distance, making
them massive gushers. Companies can also reduce the number of exploration
rigs but keep production high in the near term by completing existing wells.
Wells are completed by pumping in sand and fluids to create holes in nearby
rocks, which causes the oil to flow into the well’s pipe.
Explain a little more about what happened in the natural-gas market.
Dowd: From 2010 to 2013, drilling in Pennsylvania’s Marcellus shale
formation drove U.S. natural-gas production upward. Marcellus drilling costs
about half of what it costs elsewhere, so it drove down natural-gas prices.
It was a disruptive technology, and it put a lot of gas companies out of
business. Marcellus drillers were among the best-performing stocks in the
Standard & Poor’s 500 index in that period, despite the reduction in
natural-gas prices.
Will the same thing happen to oil drillers?
Dowd: That’s the debate. Will the quality exploration-and-production
companies in the oil industry learn how to thrive in a lower-commodity-price
environment? If so, will that put some of the established oil companies
around the world at risk?
Swank: In the international arena, it doesn’t matter what Venezuela’s
production cost is, or what Iraq’s or Libya’s is, because oil production
is tied to social programs. Some oil-producing countries use oil revenues to
subsidize their economies. Proceeds from oil sales are paid out as
dividends to citizens or used to reduce the price of gasoline. These
countries will keep producing oil in a low-price environment to keep their
citizens happy. The issue is whose budget can survive these low prices and
for how long.
Some 40% of production here in the U.S. comes from independent E&P companies
that don’t have marketing or refining operations. How will they fare?
Dowd: They’ll get hurt. Independent operators don’t have the cash flow to
handle the cost of development in the shale business. Wells in the U.S. used
to cost $1 million apiece; now they cost up to $14 million. I had dinner
with one individual who said you have to be careful because mistakes are
really, really expensive. He said it is amazing how quickly you can drill
through three generations of wealth.
What kinds of companies will need to change if they hope to survive $50 oil?
Dowd: The conventional driller—one that uses traditional technology to
drill vertical wells—is still the high-cost producer, and is pulling back
the most aggressively. The number of vertical rigs used in conventional
drilling has dropped 40%, while the horizontal rigs used in shale-oil
production have dropped only 25%.
Now we have to ask: Where is the price of oil headed from here?
Swank: People who say they can predict where it is going to be in a month
aren’t right—they’re just lucky. There is a chance crude oil could be in
the $20s in the first part of this year, and there is a chance it could be
in the $60s. That’s a wide spread, but it reflects the uncertainty in the
marketplace.
Cooper: We think about what oil price is required to attract debt and equity
capital. At $50 to $60 oil, it is going to be tough to raise high levels of
debt capital.
What if companies can’t raise capital?
Cooper: High-yield companies probably generate 20% to 25% of the oil
production in the U.S. If they can’t raise capital, you simply won’t have
the spending to fund the same level of drilling that we’ve had in the past.
Production will slow considerably, but it will take several years to do so.
Companies are paying higher interest rates to entice investors to buy their
bonds. How much does capital cost for energy companies today?
Cooper: High-quality E&P companies can sell high-yield debt. Lower-quality
companies—those with a lot of debt and that aren’t located in prime areas
—are shut out of the market, as are the service companies. Bonds of service
companies trade closer to a 13% yield. The lowest-quality bonds yield as
much as 25% to 30%.
What does that mean for your expectation about oil prices?
Cooper: We’re making investments on the premise of $50 oil this year and
perhaps $60 in 2016. Longer-term, we’ll underwrite investments based on $65
to $70 oil.
Dowd: I’ve been doing this too long to try to time the bottom. Prices can
always move further than I think is rational. I do think oil is higher in a
year. It took $90 oil to make U.S. projects work before. Because they’re
cutting costs, $70 oil probably makes some of them work now. I expect oil to
be $60 to $65 a year from now, assuming that a slight oversupply persists
in the near term.
Hong: There are a lot of variables, like geopolitical problems, that can’t
be anticipated. With that in mind, oil should bottom in the $30s. A year
from now, it will probably be in the $50s. I’m a little more cautious than
others about growth in demand, especially in China and Asia. Also, the
stronger U.S. dollar is going to hurt a lot of emerging-market countries
that have had the biggest growth in demand for oil. The stronger dollar
makes oil more expensive for them.
What does all this mean for investors?
Dowd: You want to invest in energy when the outlook is dark and stormy, and
recently, it has been pouring. The average price-to-book of the energy
sector is at an 87-year low. The companies are responding with lower
spending and lower production growth, and consumption is beginning to
increase. In a year, I believe energy stocks should be up.
So what do you own?
Dowd: Cimarex Energy XEC 0.9371902315941245% Cimarex Energy Co. U.S.: NYSE
USD112.01 0.9371902315941245% /Date(1423865107435-0600)/ Volume (Delayed 15m
) : 1768287 AFTER HOURS USD111.2896 -0.7204 -0.643156860994554% Volume (
Delayed 15m) : 11892 P/E Ratio 15.402915291529153 Market Cap 9772760737.9129
Dividend Yield 0.571377555575395% Rev. per Employee 2645620 More quote
details and news » XEC Your Value Your Change Short position [XEC] is a
U.S. oil-and-gas producer in the Permian Basin in Texas, and it develops
natural gas in Oklahoma. It has one of the best balance sheets among the
midsize E&P companies, and a history of spending within its cash flow.
You said earlier that companies that can manage or cut costs are best-
positioned to ride out low prices. Who else is in that category?
Dowd: Last year, Schlumberger SLB 2.815262912982783% Schlumberger Ltd. U.S.:
NYSE USD88.38 2.815262912982783% /Date(1423865036789-0600)/ Volume (Delayed
15m) : 7353343 AFTER HOURS USD88.54 0.18103643358225843% Volume (Delayed
15m) : 209539 P/E Ratio 21.042857142857144 Market Cap 112712072092.954
Dividend Yield 2.2629554197782302% Rev. per Employee 404833 More quote
details and news » SLB Your Value Your Change Short position [SLB], the
largest oilfield-service company in the world, started a restructuring
process aimed at improving earnings and profitability on the assumption that
commodity prices would be flat for the next several years. They plan to
double earnings per share by reducing unplanned downtime and increasing the
reliability of their tools. The stock is trading at one of its lowest price-
to-book multiples since the 1980s. If it were to trade at its average price-
to-book multiple of the past decade, the stock would double today’s level.
Who else is restructuring in this way?
Dowd: Tesoro TSO 0.6140997297961189% Tesoro Corp. U.S.: NYSE USD81.92 0.
6140997297961189% /Date(1423864926039-0600)/ Volume (Delayed 15m) : 5547535
AFTER HOURS USD81.95 0.03662109375% Volume (Delayed 15m) : 137876 P/E Ratio
12.468797564687975 Market Cap 10341990393.8385 Dividend Yield 2.0751953125%
Rev. per Employee 5804710 More quote details and news » TSO Your Value
Your Change Short position [TSO], a U.S. refinery, has historically had
above-average gross margins, but it never translated that advantage down to
the bottom line. Several years ago, a new CEO came in with the goal of
improving profitability. Its target is to grow cash flow 20% this year from
cost restructuring, and management says it can do that for another two to
three years. Tesoro will also benefit if it can acquire more higher-quality,
lower-cost crude from other regions in the U.S., which would improve
margins. It’s in a position to profit in this downturn.
Jerry, you invest in master limited partnerships. What’s to like there?
Swank: We invest in midstream MLPs, transportation businesses that get the
oil and gas from the well and bring it to the consumer. The stocks have gone
down 20% to 25%—as much as many of the oil companies, even though their
profits aren’t really affected by commodity prices. We’ve never seen an
instance when pipeline volumes went down because the commodity price fell.
Volumes on some pipelines have dropped, but only because new natural-gas
supply from the Marcellus shale has completely changed which pipelines are
used.
MLPs are famous for their high payouts. How do you ensure their
distributions are likely to continue?
Swank: We like companies that have long-term, fixed-rate contracts, and
those that went through 2008 with increases in cash flow. The average annual
distribution should grow 6% to 8%. We also like to own the general partners
, or parent companies, which have more growth levers. Energy Transfer Equity
ETE 2.4871355060034306% Energy Transfer Equity L.P. U.S.: NYSE USD59.75 2.
4871355060034306% /Date(1423864934086-0600)/ Volume (Delayed 15m) : 1447522
AFTER HOURS USD59.75 Volume (Delayed 15m) : P/E Ratio 93.359375 Market Cap
32191329971.3135 Dividend Yield 3.01255230125523% Rev. per Employee 4038680
More quote details and news » ETE Your Value Your Change Short position
[ETE] is an example. Kinder Morgan KMI 0.5028735632183908% Kinder Morgan
Inc. U.S.: NYSE USD41.97 0.5028735632183908% /Date(1423864951838-0600)/
Volume (Delayed 15m) : 8390405 AFTER HOURS USD41.98 0.02382654276864427%
Volume (Delayed 15m) : 142738 P/E Ratio 44.17894736842105 Market Cap
96402992254.5776 Dividend Yield 4.288777698355968% Rev. per Employee 1465100
More quote details and news » KMI Your Value Your Change Short
position [KMI], another pick, rolled up all its MLPs into one corporation,
simplifying the structure and lowering its cost of capital.
Cooper: What do you think about the safety of their distributions? If cash
flows decline sharply, distributions to investors get cut.
Swank: I don’t ever wake up worrying about it. These companies all have
cash flows in excess of their current distributions. We also like the
refinery MLPs, including MPLX MPLX -0.47429816690167925% MPLX L.P. U.S.:
NYSE USD77.64 -0.37 -0.47429816690167925% /Date(1423864862205-0600)/ Volume
(Delayed 15m) : 190406 AFTER HOURS USD77.64 Volume (Delayed 15m) : P/E Ratio
50.62927942614933 Market Cap 6315432724.91585 Dividend Yield 1.
9706336939721794% Rev. per Employee 818358 More quote details and news »
; MPLX Your Value Your Change Short position [MPLX], the MLP of Marathon
Petroleum MPC 2.5569871159563924% Marathon Petroleum Corp. U.S.: NYSE USD103
.48 2.5569871159563924% /Date(1423864983898-0600)/ Volume (Delayed 15m) :
2505718 AFTER HOURS USD103.5 0.019327406262079627% Volume (Delayed 15m) :
439558 P/E Ratio 12.74384236453202 Market Cap 28994371873.2065 Dividend
Yield 1.932740626207963% Rev. per Employee 3051460 More quote details and
news » MPC Your Value Your Change Short position [MPC]; Phillips 66
Partners PSXP 2.403221616004157% Phillips 66 Partners LP U.S.: NYSE USD78.83
2.403221616004157% /Date(1423865041049-0600)/ Volume (Delayed 15m) : 157151
AFTER HOURS USD78.83 Volume (Delayed 15m) : P/E Ratio 53.783175274612816
Market Cap 5830670000.99939 Dividend Yield 1.7252315108461245% Rev. per
Employee 4582000 More quote details and news » PSXP Your Value Your
Change Short position [PSXP]; and Valero Energy Partners VLP 0.
14056224899598393% Valero Energy Partners LP U.S.: NYSE USD49.87 0.
14056224899598393% /Date(1423865075413-0600)/ Volume (Delayed 15m) : 74029
AFTER HOURS USD49.9487 0.0787 0.15781030679767397% Volume (Delayed 15m) : P/
E Ratio 49.57256461232604 Market Cap 2871763343.72737 Dividend Yield 2.
133547222779226% Rev. per Employee More quote details and news » VLP
Your Value Your Change Short position [VLP].
All the refinery MLPs you mentioned are pretty low-yielding, with
distributions of less than 2%. Most MLP investors like the income. Why do
you find them attractive?
Swank: They all own their pipeline assets and are virtually 100% fee-based.
Their parents have many midstream assets that can be sold to the MLP. As an
MLP purchases more assets, like pipelines, it has the ability to generate
more revenue and boost earnings and distributions. MPLX recently came out
and said they are going to grow distributions at 25% a year for the next 10
years.
Shaun, what are you buying, given your cautious stance on energy prices?
Hong: I like a lot of the same names Jerry does. In the Equity Income fund
for the past several years, most of our energy holdings have been in the
midstream area, and we’ve had very limited exposure to E&P names and
refineries.
Like anything that Jerry didn’t mention?
Hong: Cheniere Energy LNG 1.2231584669747213% Cheniere Energy Inc. U.S.:
NYSE MKT USD74.48 1.2231584669747213% /Date(1423864827982-0600)/ Volume (
Delayed 15m) : 1607709 AFTER HOURS USD74.97 0.6578947368421053% Volume (
Delayed 15m) : 321456 P/E Ratio Market Cap 17640290356.8438 Dividend Yield
Rev. per Employee 634695 More quote details and news » LNG Your Value
Your Change Short position [LNG] has an MLP called Cheniere Energy Partners
CQP -1.61035680454689% Cheniere Energy Partners L.P. U.S.: NYSE MKT USD31.16
-0.51 -1.61035680454689% /Date(1423864848054-0600)/ Volume (Delayed 15m) :
1013335 AFTER HOURS USD31.114 -0.046 -0.14762516046213095% Volume (Delayed
15m) : P/E Ratio Market Cap 10525759666.9119 Dividend Yield 5.
455712451861361% Rev. per Employee 704872 More quote details and news »
CQP Your Value Your Change Short position [CQP] and another unit called
Cheniere Energy Partners LP Holdings CQH 1.0475774770842428% Cheniere Energy
Partners L.P. Holdings LLC U.S.: NYSE MKT USD23.15 1.0475774770842428% /
Date(1423864859837-0600)/ Volume (Delayed 15m) : 31918 P/E Ratio Market Cap
5363854840.96527 Dividend Yield 0.3282937365010799% Rev. per Employee More
quote details and news » CQH Your Value Your Change Short position [CQH
]. We like the outlook for both firms, which own a liquid-natural-gas
terminal in Louisiana that will be operational by the first half of next
year. They have 20-year-plus contracts. Whether the buyers use it or don’t
use it, they still have to pay Cheniere. CQP pays $1.70 a year on its A
shares, for a 5.4% yield. CQH pays just eight cents a year, but that will
increase meaningfully three months after the plant becomes operational, and
its B shares in CQP turn into A shares.
Are you buying other oil or energy stocks in the Equity Income fund?
Hong: No. Those investors tend to be conservative, so we’d rather wait and
see the bottom in oil prices.
Gib, how are fixed-income investors approaching the market today?
Cooper: In high yield, the name of the game is creating bridges to better
oil prices. Companies need to ensure they have the liquidity to survive if
oil prices stay low for a couple of years.
Who’s doing that well?
Cooper: Sanchez Energy SN -0.7827788649706457% Sanchez Energy Corp. U.S.:
NYSE USD15.21 -0.12 -0.7827788649706457% /Date(1423865041927-0600)/ Volume (
Delayed 15m) : 2418437 AFTER HOURS USD15.19 -0.02 -0.13149243918474687%
Volume (Delayed 15m) : P/E Ratio 56.333333333333336 Market Cap 891275575.
736923 Dividend Yield Rev. per Employee 4157810 More quote details and news
» SN Your Value Your Change Short position [SN], a producer in the
Eagle Ford shale in South Texas. It has an enterprise value of $2.1 billion,
and $1.7 billion of tradable debt. We were buying the bonds in December at
75 cents on the dollar, after they’d fallen about 25 points since August.
Now they trade at 89 cents and yield 8.25%.
Swank: The balance sheet is in great shape.
Cooper: They have nothing borrowed on a $300 million bank line of credit and
will probably end the year with $400 million in cash. They will slightly
outspend cash flow in 2015, and have proposed a budget in 2016 that is
basically break-even. Management prefunded a lot of capital needs, so they
are in a relatively good position.
Anything else look interesting in high-yield?
Cooper: Another name is California Resources CRC 2.20125786163522%
California Resources Corp. U.S.: NYSE USD6.5 2.20125786163522% /Date(
1423865141769-0600)/ Volume (Delayed 15m) : 5507272 AFTER HOURS USD6.65 2.
3076923076923075% Volume (Delayed 15m) : P/E Ratio Market Cap 2515500000
Dividend Yield Rev. per Employee More quote details and news » CRC Your
Value Your Change Short position [CRC]. Its $5 billion of bonds were sold
last fall as part of its spinout from Occidental Petroleum OXY 1.
3042418332520722% Occidental Petroleum Corp. U.S.: NYSE USD83.11 1.
3042418332520722% /Date(1423864973332-0600)/ Volume (Delayed 15m) : 4199068
AFTER HOURS USD83.11 Volume (Delayed 15m) : P/E Ratio 11.591352859135286
Market Cap 64445819767.7173 Dividend Yield 3.465286969077127% Rev. per
Employee 1497050 More quote details and news » OXY Your Value Your
Change Short position [OXY]. Like Sanchez’s bonds, they have fallen sharply
, by 27 cents on the dollar to 78 in mid-January. Now they’re at 85, and
yield 8.3%.
Why are the bonds down so sharply?
Cooper: They’ve fallen because 45% of California Resources’ production is
crude oil and another 28% is natural-gas liquids, and its production is
largely unhedged. But it has more than $2 billion of cash and available bank
lines of credit. And because it is a conventional producer, its production
is slowing just 15% a year, versus the much sharper drop in production the
shale producers are seeing. So the company has the ability to contract
capital spending fairly aggressively without hurting production levels
substantially.
Can you give us one more bond?
Cooper: Sure. Oasis Petroleum OAS -0.17783046828689983% Oasis Petroleum Inc.
U.S.: NYSE USD16.84 -0.03 -0.17783046828689983% /Date(1423864963015-0600)/
Volume (Delayed 15m) : 12148326 AFTER HOURS USD16.84 Volume (Delayed 15m) :
P/E Ratio 4.32904884318766 Market Cap 1706531892.29401 Dividend Yield Rev.
per Employee 3516470 More quote details and news » OAS Your Value Your
Change Short position [OAS] doesn’t yield as much, but drills in a world-
class basin, the Bakken in North Dakota. Oasis has locked in the price it
will receive on more than half its production in 2015, and management lives
within its cash flow. Its bonds are single-B rated, and yield 7.5%. It is a
company with staying power and good assets.
Thank you, all.
E-mail: [email protected]
/* */ | q********g
发帖数: 10694 | | T**y
发帖数: 1024 | 3 看这一段:
Did speculators have a role?
Hong: Absolutely, speculators are a factor. But the price decline was most
impacted by the general buyer of oil. Airlines, for example, historically
have hedged some of their fuel expense. But when oil prices started to move
down drastically, volatility went up, and hedging became more expensive. So
airlines pulled back on hedging. Also, users of oil will reduce their buying
. Instead of holding two or three months of inventory, they’ll cut back and
try to buy oil at a lower price in the future. So there is a de-stocking
that goes on.
【在 q********g 的大作中提到】
: 太长，谁给总结，20伪币。
| p********a
发帖数: 6437 | 4 看了一半，起初看各个背景显赫，哥读的用心
读到一半不到，终于反应过来，操你妈华尔街上大家真是心照不宣
我来给你作个访谈，记者有工作，嘉宾有风头
半真半假，参合一起，谁听了照做别尼玛怪我......
全尼玛骗子！
投机的作用就一段话，嗯，不重要。重要的是各种钻井技术，产油国政治，油业运营,.
..... 种种......
都是放屁
最主要的决定因素就是投机！就是操控！
连沙特的行为都很可能是顺势而为！
结论：
屯！拼命屯！买吧！usoil过了55，就不太好大规模买入投资了...... | b*d
发帖数: 3069 | 5 就是这意思
反正都是操控，
只不过老美的操控很多时候被披上了文明的外衣而已
,.
【在 p********a 的大作中提到】
: 看了一半，起初看各个背景显赫，哥读的用心
: 读到一半不到，终于反应过来，操你妈华尔街上大家真是心照不宣
: 我来给你作个访谈，记者有工作，嘉宾有风头
: 半真半假，参合一起，谁听了照做别尼玛怪我......
: 全尼玛骗子！
: 投机的作用就一段话，嗯，不重要。重要的是各种钻井技术，产油国政治，油业运营,.
: ..... 种种......
: 都是放屁
: 最主要的决定因素就是投机！就是操控！
: 连沙特的行为都很可能是顺势而为！
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