w****o
发帖数: 2260 | 1 原文及link在下面。
2000年的时候，思科市值465B，JUNIPER 80B, 思科和JUNIPER红的发紫，有预测CISCO
能很快成为第一个1万亿的公司，那个势头在当时看真的就是板上钉钉。世事难料，今
天思科今天167B，JUNIPER 10B。
这篇文章分析，思科比MSFT， INTEL好多啦。呵呵。
再过十年后看看苹果那时能值多少钱。
https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/stories/2000/03/20/story2.html
One trillion dollars.
That's how much at least one analyst believes Cisco Systems Inc. will be
worth in a few years--and you'd be hard pressed to find anyone to disagree.
The San Jose-based networking behemoth's stock closed March 14 at $131.75 a
share, slightly down from its March 10 one-year high of $141.88 (The entire
Nasdaq slid 4 percent on March 14.)
Thirty-seven investment banks recommend either a "buy" or a "strong buy."
None recommend a "sell" or even a "hold."
On any given day the volume of Cisco shares traded is the equivalent of
every man, woman and child living in California--having hit 33 million as
recently as March 9.
George Kelly, an analyst with Morgan Stanley Dean Witter in New York who
took Cisco public a decade ago, is one of the Cisco bulls. Cisco's stock is
trading at roughly 120 times Mr. Kelly's earnings' estimate of $1.13 per
share.
The multiple, or price-to-earnings ratio, is a number that places a value on
a stock. It is a ratio of the price of the stock to the profit of a company
expressed per shares outstanding.
"A low P/E usually signals investors are uncomfortable," Mr. Kelly said.
As a reference, in 2000 Cisco's multiple of 120 compares to Microsoft Corp.'
s multiple of 55 and Intel Corp.'s multiple of 42. Yet their values are
below Cisco.
"One of the reasons investors value Cisco so highly right now is that,
unlike Microsoft, Cisco doesn't have the uncertainty of a Justice Department
settlement--it's a much cleaner situation," Mr. Kelly said. "Second, Cisco
has had a tremendous track record of continuous upside surprises. And Cisco
is viewed as opening several new markets, the biggest of which is optical,
which is expected to be an explosive market."
Perfect returns
Paul Weinstein, an analyst with Credit Suisse First Boston, believes a $1
trillion market capitalization (stock price multiplied by shares outstanding
) is within reach in a few years. He said Cisco's stock has increased 1,000
times, a perfect 100 percent annual return since it launched its IPO in 1990.
"We humbly submit that over the next two to three years, Cisco could be the
first trillion dollar market cap company--and don't think they wouldn't love
it," Mr. Weinstein wrote in his "strong buy" recommendation.
As of March 14, Microsoft's market cap stood about $510 billion, compared
with Cisco's $465 billion, which is threefold the annual revenue of the
state of California.
Michael Neiberg, lead analyst in the communications equipment sector for
Chase Hambrecht & Quist in New York, said Cisco is turning a lot of
investors long-term.
"If you had picked a price point to sell [high] at anytime in the past 10
years, you would have been wrong," he said. "They have such an impressive
track record of growing ... that the financial community isn't thinking in
terms of a multiple of what they're earning this year, but what they will be
earning three or four years down the line."
An opposing view
There are market watchers that are dubious, however, about the high
valuation assigned to a large-cap company like Cisco.
Jeremy Siegel, a finance professor at the Wharton School, wrote this week in
The Wall Street Journal that the high valuation assigned to large-cap
technology stocks--Cisco is at the top of his list--are unsustainable.
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"History has shown that whenever companies, no matter how great, get priced
above 50 to 60 times earnings, buyer beware," Mr. Siegel wrote.
His statistical research concludes when companies reach big-cap status--
ranked in the top 50 by market capitalization--their ability to generate
long-term double-digit growth slows dramatically.
Young bucks in a different field
Looking at multiples of high-flying valley gazelles that compete with Cisco
is almost meaningless.
Take Juniper Networks Inc. The firm has rapidly gained a 15 percent market
share in the high-end routing market, cracking a lucrative niche dominated
by Cisco.
Juniper posted its first profit for the fourth quarter of 1999 of 3 cents
per share. Extrapolating that performance out to a 12-month period would
conservatively give the company a profit of 12 cents per share. But with its
stock price closing March 14 at $245 a share, the upstart company can boast
a P/E ratio of 2,042.
Is its stock more valuable than Cisco's? In a word, yes. At least Wall
Street believes so.
But both Messrs. Neiberg and Kelly note that what Wall Street is valuing is
relatively short-term growth--the explosiveness of these new valley firms.
"For the early adopters and early movers, Wall Street is willing to assign
these values," Mr. Neiberg said.
But he added that what Wall Street is betting on is extremely rapid growth
for a year or two. As the rapid growth slows, the multiples will fall into a
more earthly range.
Comparing P/E ratios of other industry giants in different technology spaces
may be tempting to investors, but Mr. Neiberg is wary of mixing two
different dynamics.
"Both [Microsoft and Intel] are benefiting from the PC revolution," Mr.
Neiberg said. "But they are in a much more moderate growth phase. The more
rapid growth is to interconnect all those computers, and Cisco is the
standard bearer for all that interconnection."
You can reach Mr. Taylor at [email protected] | d****a
发帖数: 3087 | 2 make sense. I also wanted to buy some csco at that time. | m******c
发帖数: 1202 | | w****o
发帖数: 2260 | 4 当时应该是很高的P/E，对于非常热门的公司考虑P/E是没有意义的。文章里说了：思科
从1990上市到2000年股价涨了1000倍。就是每年翻番。
现在思科P/E 是17， 今天的思科的revenue 和profit肯定是2000年时候的几十倍了，
可是市值是当时的三分之一。
所以可以推断出当时P/E可能在几百或者是上千。
文章里提到JUNIPER当时的P/E是2400.
【在 m******c 的大作中提到】
: 思科130的时候P/E是多少？
| W***n
发帖数: 11530 | 5
CISCO
some1 said NVDA 's market value 'll be bigger than INTC soon
hahaha
【在 w****o 的大作中提到】
: 原文及link在下面。
: 2000年的时候，思科市值465B，JUNIPER 80B, 思科和JUNIPER红的发紫，有预测CISCO
: 能很快成为第一个1万亿的公司，那个势头在当时看真的就是板上钉钉。世事难料，今
: 天思科今天167B，JUNIPER 10B。
: 这篇文章分析，思科比MSFT， INTEL好多啦。呵呵。
: 再过十年后看看苹果那时能值多少钱。
: https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/stories/2000/03/20/story2.html
: One trillion dollars.
: That's how much at least one analyst believes Cisco Systems Inc. will be
: worth in a few years--and you'd be hard pressed to find anyone to disagree.
| W***n
发帖数: 11530 | 6 they r already bigger than TI | a*****n
发帖数: 653 | | w****o
发帖数: 2260 | 8 是的，当时的人看不清楚。JDSU是光通讯的老大。太疯狂啦。员工人人都是百万，千万
，亿万富翁。
看看wikipedia上的介绍：
股票每三个月就拆股2：1一次，这样弄了三次，就是这样拆股后股价还有$153.
可惜，衰败后员工人数从3万变成了5000。
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JDSU
During the 1990s, JDS Uniphase stock was a high-flyer tech stock investor
favorite. Its stock price doubled three times and three stock splits of 2:1
occurred roughly every 90 days during the last half of 1999 through early
2000, making millionaires of many employees who were stock option holders,
and further enabling JDS Uniphase to go on an acquisition and merger binge.
After the telecom downturn, JDS Uniphase announced in late July 2001 the
largest (up to then) write-down of goodwill. Employment soon dropped as part
of the Global Realignment Program from nearly 29,000 to approximately 5,300
, many of its factories and facilities were closed around the world, and the
stock price dropped from $153 per share to less than $2 per share.
【在 a*****n 的大作中提到】
: 买CSCO至少比在高位买JDSU好多了。
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