d******l
发帖数: 1952 | 1 SPY from 152 to 73...
How many people are still here? | y*******e
发帖数: 1 | 2 不算什么，几年前上证5000多几周就到2000多，我依然在，弟兄们，坚挺饱满有力 | d*******n
发帖数: 43 | 3 守住 国家队可能会迟到 绝不会缺席
【在 y*******e 的大作中提到】
: 不算什么，几年前上证5000多几周就到2000多，我依然在，弟兄们，坚挺饱满有力
| E***r
发帖数: 1037 | 4 腰斩个五六成，不是世界末日。
据知名机构的TA成果，SPX沿2014年12月中心旋转180度，图形竟几乎完全重合！
知道未来一年怎么走了吧？
【在 d******l 的大作中提到】
: SPY from 152 to 73...
: How many people are still here?
| d******l
发帖数: 1952 | 5 oh my god!!!
【在 E***r 的大作中提到】
: 腰斩个五六成，不是世界末日。
: 据知名机构的TA成果，SPX沿2014年12月中心旋转180度，图形竟几乎完全重合！
: 知道未来一年怎么走了吧？
| d******l
发帖数: 1952 | | E***r
发帖数: 1037 | 7 I remembered I saw a similar chart somewhere, now I found the source,
despite that McClellan used DJIA. McClellan wrote this blog on Jan 18,
2018, right before the Feb crash. He is the inventor of McClellan
Oscillator, the de facto market breadth indicator.
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/ending_how_it_began_parabolically/
Ending How It Began (Parabolically)?
January 18, 2018
There is a lot of talk lately about the market “going parabolic”. Most of
the time when that term is used, people are thinking about prices swooping
upward like the main cable on a suspension bridge, with each additional
lateral increment seeing increasing vertical increments.
But a parabola can also be seen in the path of a bouncing ball, which goes
up the fastest at first, and then stalls out at the apex of its rise. If
you turn upside down a plot of a bouncing ball, you’ll get a pattern
resembling a suspension bridge. Parabolas are the same, even if turned
upside down.
That’s the point behind this week’s chart, which I created this week just
because it occurred to me that the pattern of the DJIA looked like it was
repeating itself now, but upside down and backwards.
It has long been rumored that if you play certain Beatles songs backwards, a
technique known as “backmasking”, you can hear secret messages, including
the revelation that “Paul is dead” (he’s not, by the way, last I checked
). This led to the joke that if you play a country music song backwards,
your wife will come back to you, your truck will start running again, and
your dog will come back to life.
When I was a kid I took violin lessons and my teacher Mr. Conway had me play
a Beethoven duet with him that was a musical joke. The single sheet of
music was placed on a table between two violinists, each of whom reads the
music from what they saw as the top of the sheet, and ending up at the
bottom which was the other guy’s top, but with the notes in the score
upside down. Beethoven could make that work musically, and in the top chart
I pay homage to Beethoven by playing the DJIA’s song backward.
If you look closely, you can see lots of moments of coincidence in the minor
price patterns, which makes this comparison really interesting. There are
also a few instances of pattern inversion, which is pretty normal in any
analog comparison. By this way of looking at the DJIA’s pattern, the
current blowoff upward in prices is the echo of the up move out of the 2009
bottom. That up move ended when QE1 was shut down, and it led to the Flash
Crash of 2010. The implication is that the 2015-16 correction was the
corollary to the Flash Crash, and now we are playing back the rally out of
the 2009 bottom.
This is admittedly an irregular way of portraying a price analog, and full
of peril in drawing conclusions about what we see continuing. But it is
still a fun chart. I do not have prior evidence that this is a legitimate
form of chart analysis. It just seems to be working at the moment. And as
I reveal it now to the world, I remind myself of my #1 Rule of Technical
Analysis, which holds that “A phenomenon will remain in effect only until
noticed”. The bulls had better hope that rule works this time.
Tom McClellan
Editor, The McClellan Market Report
【在 E***r 的大作中提到】
: 腰斩个五六成，不是世界末日。
: 据知名机构的TA成果，SPX沿2014年12月中心旋转180度，图形竟几乎完全重合！
: 知道未来一年怎么走了吧？
| U*R
发帖数: 1 | 8
of
swooping
【在 E***r 的大作中提到】
: I remembered I saw a similar chart somewhere, now I found the source,
: despite that McClellan used DJIA. McClellan wrote this blog on Jan 18,
: 2018, right before the Feb crash. He is the inventor of McClellan
: Oscillator, the de facto market breadth indicator.
: http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/ending_how_it_began_parabolically/
: Ending How It Began (Parabolically)?
: January 18, 2018
: There is a lot of talk lately about the market “going parabolic”. Most of
: the time when that term is used, people are thinking about prices swooping
: upward like the main cable on a suspension bridge, with each additional
|
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