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发帖数: 29846 | 1 Sunday, 01 Jan 2012 09:00 AM
The volatile Republican presidential race in Iowa will come down to which
way an enormous chunk of undecided voters breaks in the coming days.
With the first-in-the-nation voting of the 2012 race for the White House
looming Tuesday, Mitt Romney is contending for victory in a state that
eluded him four years ago, while Rick Santorum — a hero among social
conservatives — surges and libertarian-leaning Ron Paul slides in a contest
that remains incredibly fluid.
With many factors at play, the dynamics can shift rapidly.
Yet, two things are clear on the final weekend before the caucuses: The
yearlong effort to establish a consensus challenger to Romney had so far
come up short, and Romney's carefully laid plan to survive Iowa may succeed
because conservative voters have so far failed to unite behind one candidate.
"It may be Romney's to lose at this point," said John Stineman, an Iowa GOP
campaign strategist. "And it's a battle among the rest."
Underscoring the unpredictability of the race, a new poll by The Des Moines
Register showed that a remarkable 41 percent of likely caucus-goers say they
were undecided or still might change their minds.
Romney had 24 percent support among likely voters, while Paul had 22 percent
, meaning they were statistically even at the front of the pack. Santorum
was third with 15 percent, followed by Newt Gingrich, with 12 percent, and
Rick Perry, 11 percent. Michele Bachmann, a one-time Iowa favorite, brought
up the rear with 7 percent.
However, in a sign of how quickly things can change, the last two days of
the poll — taken Tuesday through Friday — found Santorum with momentum and
Paul losing his. Heading into the weekend, Romney held a narrow lead, but
Santorum was right behind him with 21 percent while Paul had fallen to 18
percent.
On Sunday, the candidates were making their closing arguments, both in
appearances across Iowa as well as on national television, while volunteers
and staffers canvassed the state to start mobilizing backers.
Paul, who was at home in Texas for the weekend, was making the rounds of
Sunday talk shows, while Santorum, Perry and Bachmann were doing the same
from Iowa.
Romney planned appearances in Atlantic and Council Bluffs as he works to
maximize the edge he holds in critical areas rather than risk
underperforming in places where more ardent conservatives are leery of his
Mormon faith and shifting positions on social issues.
In Le Mars on Sunday, he drew a crowd of 300 people, including supporter
Alan Lucken, who shouted to the candidate: "You're going to win."
"I'm planning on it," Romney said and later told a reporter, "I sure hope to
. I'll tell you that."
In another show of confidence, Romney promised to return if he is the GOP
nominee.
"I'm going to be back in Iowa; we're going to fight, we're going to win Iowa
in the general election," Romney said as he closed his remarks in Le Mars.
Santorum, meanwhile, looked to capitalize on his recent surge by focusing on
southern portions of rural Iowa, where the former Pennsylvania senator has
made a point of visiting more often than his rivals. And his campaign rolled
out a new TV ad casting him as "a trusted conservative who gives us the
best chance to take back America."
He claimed momentum Saturday — and acknowledged his opponents had more
money — as he traveled with his daughter Liz, who quit college to campaign
for her father.
"We believe that ultimately, money doesn't matter in Iowa," Santorum said at
a packed stop in Indianola. "You can't buy Iowa. You've got to go out and
work for Iowa votes."
Perry's advisers see Santorum within reach and have begun attacking the
former senator for having supported spending on home-state pet projects, an
unpopular position in these tough economic times.
"I think the world of Rick Santorum. He's got a great family. But we've got
some real difference when it comes to fiscal issues," Perry told supporters
in Boone. "Those differences couldn't be clearer when it comes to important
issues in this election like spending."
Santorum, in turn, charged Perry with hypocrisy: "He had a paid lobbyist in
Washington looking for earmarks."
Perry announced he would travel directly from Iowa to Greenville, S.C., the
day after the caucuses, bypassing next-up New Hampshire. Still, he said he
planned to participate in two debates in New Hampshire next weekend.
Gingrich, for his part, was spending the weekend pleading anew with Iowans
to side with him despite what they have learned about him through millions
of dollars in attack advertising by Paul and a political action committee
bankrolled by Romney supporters.
"Iowa could actually dramatically change people's understanding of what
works in politics if you repudiate that kind of negativity," Gingrich told
150 people at a Council Bluffs restaurant. |
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