t*b
发帖数: 850 | 1 Based on August polls, Romney leads in 23 states with a total 191 electoral
votes. Obama leads in 16 states with a atotal of 196 electoral votes. Below
are the 12 swing states with 151 electoral votes (538-191-196) with their
current political elections results.
Colorado - 9 electoral vote
2004, Bush won 52% vs 47%
2008, Obama won 54% vs 45%
All major August polls show Obama leads 0-6%
Governor: Democrat, elected 2010
US Senators: both Democrats, both elected in 2008
Congressmen: 4 republicans and 3 democrats, all elected in 2010
Florida - 29 electoral vote
2004, Bush won 52% vs 47%
2008, Obama won 51% vs 48%
Two major August polls show Obama leads 3-4%, Four polls show Romney leads 1
-14%.
Governor: Republican, elected 2010
US Senators: one Democrat (2006), one republican (2010).
Congressmen: 19 republicans and 6 democrats, all elected in 2010
Iowa - 6 electoral vote
2004, Bush won 50% vs 49%
2008, Obama won 54% vs 44%
One major August polls shows Obama leads 2%, one poll shows Romney leads 2%.
Governor: Republican, elected 2010
US Senators: one Democrat (2008), one Republican (2010).
Congressmen: 2 republicans and 3 democrats, all elected in 2010
Michigan - 16 electoral vote
2004, Kerry won 51% vs 48%
2008, Obama won 57% vs 41%
Three major August polls show Obama leads 3-5%, one poll shows Romney leads
1%.
Governor: Republican, elected 2010
US Senators: both Democrats (2006, 2008).
Congressmen: 9 republicans and 6 democrats, all elected in 2010 | t*b
发帖数: 850 | 2 Neveda - 6 electoral vote
2004, Bush won 51% vs 48%
2008, Obama won 55% vs 43%
Two August poll show Obama leads 2-3%, no poll shows Romney lead.
Governor: Republican, elected 2010
US Senators: One Republican appointed 2011, one Democrat elected in 2010
Congressmen: 2 republicans and 1 democrats, all elected in 2010
New Hamsphire - 4 electoral vote
2004, Kerry won 50% vs 49%
2008, Obama won 54% vs 45%
Two August poll show Obama leads 3-6%, no poll shows Romney lead.
Governor: Democrat, elected 2010
US Senators: One Republican elected 2010, one Democrat elected in 2008
Congressmen: 2 republicans and 0 democrats, all elected in 2010
New Mexico - 5 electoral vote
2004, Bush won 50% vs 49%
2008, Obama won 57% vs 42%
One August poll show Obama leads 14%, no poll shows Romney lead.
Governor: Republican (Latino), elected 2010
US Senators: One Democrat elected 2008, one Democrat elected in 2006
Congressmen: 1 republicans and 2 democrats, all elected in 2010
North Carolina - 15 electoral vote
2004, Bush won 56% vs 44%
2008, Obama won 50% vs 49%
One August poll show Obama leads 3%, one poll shows Romney lead 1%.
Governor: Democrat, elected 2008
US Senators: One Democrat elected 2008, one Republican elected in 2010
Congressmen: 6 republicans and 7 democrats, all elected in 2010
Ohio - 18 electoral vote
2004, Bush won 51% vs 49%
2008, Obama won 52% vs 47%
Three August polls show Obama leads 3-6%, one poll shows Romney lead 2%, two
polls show a tie.
Governor: Republican, elected 2010
US Senators: One Democrat elected 2006, one Republican elected in 2010
Congressmen: 13 republicans and 5 democrats, all elected in 2010
Pennsylvania - 20 electoral vote
2004, Kerry won 51% vs 48%
2008, Obama won 54% vs 44%
Three August polls show Obama leads 5-9%, no August poll show Romney leads.
Governor: Republican, elected 2010
US Senators: One Democrat elected 2006, one Republican elected in 2010
Congressmen: 12 republicans and 7 democrats, all elected in 2010
Virginia - 13 electoral vote
2004, Bush won 54% vs 46%
2008, Obama won 53% vs 46%
Two August polls show Obama leads 2-5%, one poll show Romney leads by 3%.
Governor: Republican, elected 2009
US Senators: One Democrat elected 2006, one Democrat elected in 2008
Congressmen: 8 republicans and 3 democrats, all elected in 2010
Wisconsin - 10 electoral vote
2004, Kerry won 50% vs 49%
2008, Obama won 56% vs 42%
Three August polls show Obama leads 2-4%, two polls show Romney leads by 1%.
Governor: Republican, elected 2010
US Senators: One Democrats elected 2006, one Republican elected in 2010
Congressmen: 5 republicans and 3 democrats, all elected in 2010 | s********t
发帖数: 4150 | | t*b
发帖数: 850 | 4 Assuming Obama wins Colorado, New Mexico, Neveda, Penssyvenia, New Hamsphire
, Obama gets 235 votes, need another 35 votes.
Obama also has a bigger chance to win Michigan and Wisconsin, that gives him
a total of 261 votes. Just need another 9 votes.
Romney must win Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, only affords to
lose Iowa.
If Romney wins New Hamsphire (4 votes), he then afford to lose Virginia but
have to win Iowa.
Romney is very likely to win NC and FL.
The true battleground states are: Ohio, Virginia, New Hamsphire and Iowa.
Romney has to win Ohio and another two of the three states.
North Carolina - 15 electoral vote
Wisconsin - 10 electoral vote
Virginia - 13 electoral vote
Ohio - 18 electoral vote
Michigan - 16 electoral vote
Florida - 29 electoral vote
Iowa - 6 electoral vote | f*********g
发帖数: 1637 | 5 If this is original post, lz deserts commended, but the post is more like
guesswork than any serious work because it lacks any credible references.
By the way, as of now in intrade.com Romny probability dropped more than 2
% already. We don't see any "convention bounce" so far which is bearish sign
for GOP. | t*b
发帖数: 850 | 6 what you said is exactly why most Chinese people in the US can not succeed,
most of us spent most of our life do most of the bench work.
Why, because everyone including feynmanring guy always wants to see a
reference. Damn it. can't we create something new? | t*b
发帖数: 850 | 7 you believe intrade.com? that is funded by the DNC. | f*******7
发帖数: 2210 | 8 It might be already priced in, right?
2
sign
【在 f*********g 的大作中提到】
: If this is original post, lz deserts commended, but the post is more like
: guesswork than any serious work because it lacks any credible references.
: By the way, as of now in intrade.com Romny probability dropped more than 2
: % already. We don't see any "convention bounce" so far which is bearish sign
: for GOP.
| h*****w
发帖数: 8561 | 9 罗姆尼希望很小，他输了OH就完了，即使赢了OH（目前民调落后），还得赢VA，这个难
度更大因为落后更多。我觉得他基本不太可能同时赢NH和Iowa
基本上O8连任已经定局，他现在钱也多，使劲砸OH，赢了OH加上基本盘就够了。
象MI，PA这两个传统战场州基本已是O8囊中之物。
Hamsphire
him
but
【在 t*b 的大作中提到】
: Assuming Obama wins Colorado, New Mexico, Neveda, Penssyvenia, New Hamsphire
: , Obama gets 235 votes, need another 35 votes.
: Obama also has a bigger chance to win Michigan and Wisconsin, that gives him
: a total of 261 votes. Just need another 9 votes.
: Romney must win Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, only affords to
: lose Iowa.
: If Romney wins New Hamsphire (4 votes), he then afford to lose Virginia but
: have to win Iowa.
: Romney is very likely to win NC and FL.
: The true battleground states are: Ohio, Virginia, New Hamsphire and Iowa.
| h*****w
发帖数: 8561 | 10 另外罗姆尼还得保证拿下FL和NC才能接着玩，这两个州目前他民调都是微弱领先。
Hamsphire
him
but
【在 t*b 的大作中提到】
: Assuming Obama wins Colorado, New Mexico, Neveda, Penssyvenia, New Hamsphire
: , Obama gets 235 votes, need another 35 votes.
: Obama also has a bigger chance to win Michigan and Wisconsin, that gives him
: a total of 261 votes. Just need another 9 votes.
: Romney must win Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, only affords to
: lose Iowa.
: If Romney wins New Hamsphire (4 votes), he then afford to lose Virginia but
: have to win Iowa.
: Romney is very likely to win NC and FL.
: The true battleground states are: Ohio, Virginia, New Hamsphire and Iowa.
| f*********g
发帖数: 1637 | 11 Is this your habit to utter rumor without any substance? Do you really
think people trust you over intrade.com?
The original means vision and/or hard work, I fail to see any of those from
your great guesswork. I dont judge poll study quality by their parisanship
alone. For instance, as much I disagree with Karl Rove, his election map is
still a serious work and deserts good attention.
【在 t*b 的大作中提到】
: you believe intrade.com? that is funded by the DNC.
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