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发帖数: 29846 | 1 Jobs Report: U.S. Economy Added Just 74K Jobs In December, Unemployment Down
To 6.7%
The stretch of positive economic news that led to the Federal Reserve’s
decision to begin trimming asset purchases last month has not continued into
the new year.
Employers added just 74,000 jobs in December, well below the 197,000
economists expected. The unemployment rate, which is drawn from a different
survey of households, was down to 6.7% from 7% in November. The labor force
participation rate was down from 63% to 62.8%, the lowest rate in more than
three decades. The the employment-population ration was steady at 58.6%.
Following the news the S&P 500 ping ponged from down about 1 point to up as
much 4.5, circling 1,835. The Dow was similarly sporadic down as much as 17
points and up as much as 22.
“This has been a two steps forward and one step back recovery,” said Mark
Hamrick, Washington bureau chief at Bankrate.com, in a phone interview. The
unemployment survey only counts people who are looking for work as
unemployed, suggesting many people left the labor market last month. The
number of unemployed declined by 490,000 to 10.4 million.
In a note following the Bureau of Labor Statistics release, Capital
Economics Chief U.S. Economist Paul Ashworth wrote that he suspects the
weakness was due in part to unseasonably harsh weather in December. He notes
that the household survey shows that 273,000 people reported not being able
to work due to the weather, compared to 166,000 average in past years. In
November just 37,000 people reported not being able to work due to weather
conditions.
“That doesn’t mean we can mechanically translate that into a 110,000 hit
to payrolls, however, because the payroll survey still counts workers as
employed as long as they were paid for one day in the sample period,
regardless of whether they physically turned up,” he wrote. “Nevertheless,
it is normally a pretty good indication. The 16,000 decline in construction
payrolls and the dip in average weekly hours worked are also indications
that bad weather played a role.”
Hamrick agreed that since we know housing starts are on the rise, the
decline in construction jobs grants validity to the notion the weather
figured heavily into the December results. Construction jobs were added in
November.
Jobs were also lost in health care and information.
Kathy Bostjancic, director of macroeconomic analysis at The Conference Board
, also similarly feels the weakness may be momentary. “The Conference Board
’s Leading Economic Indicators and the results from the latest survey of
purchasing managers are two economic readings that suggest employment gains
will rebound in the New Year.”
In a phone conversation, PNC Chief Economist Stuart Hoffman urged people to
take the new data in stride, noting that if you average the October,
November and December numbers you get 172,000 jobs added a month, not far
from the 182,000 per month average for the year. “Maybe it does mean you
curb your enthusiasm a little bit about the economy being ready to break out
on the upside, but I don’t think there is any last weakness.” He also
expects upward revisions to December and 2013.
The debate is likely to turn next to what how the Federal Reserve will
respond the the news. Ashworth expects the Fed to cut another $10 billion
from its asset purchases, tapering from $75 billion to $65 billion. “At 6.7
%, the unemployment rate is closing in on the 6.5% threshold that was
originally intended to signal that the Fed would at least begin to consider
raising the fed funds rate.” However Bernanke was adamant that 6.5% was not
a trigger and would be considered alongside other data points. Hamrick does
not expect the Fed to make big moves until the unemployment rate “dips
below 6.5% for the right reasons not just because of the decline in labor
force participation.”
Hoffman suspects “it would take several more months of either very weak
payroll job numbers, or even bigger drops in the unemployment rate for the
right reasons such as huge increases in jobs before the Fed would want to
deviate from its $10 billion taper a meeting path of least resistance.”
The jobs that were added came largely from retail and wholesale trade which
gained 55,000 and 15,000 jobs respectively. In retail, food stores and
clothing stores added 12,000 each, general merchandisers added 8,000 and car
dealers added 7,000. The holiday season hiring beat the retail 2013 average
by 23,000. Business services, manufacturing and mining also added jobs.
Employment numbers were revised up for November from plus 203,000 to plus
241,000. With no changes to the 200,000 number for October, total employment
gains those months were therefore 38,000 higher than previously reported.
In the last 12 months job growth has averaged 195,000 per month. In 2013 an
average of 182,000 jobs were added each month, just slightly below 2012′s
183,000 average monthly gains. |
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