l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 1 Establishment Survey +233K Jobs, Household Employment Survey -56K, Part-
Time Employment +372K, Labor Force -432K
Initial Reaction
Today's job report (for June) once again showed a huge divergence between
the household survey and the establishment survey.
Household survey employment fell by 56,000 while the establishment survey
shows a gain of 233,000 jobs. The labor force declined by 432,000 and that
explains the drop in the unemployment rate to 5.3% from 5.5%.
The report was weaker than it looks due to significant downward revisions in
April and May totaling 60,000. May was revised to 254,000 from 280,000 and
April to 187,000 from 221,000.
Part-Time Employment +372,000
Of note in the Household Survey, voluntary part-time employment rose by 519,
000 while part-time for economic reasons declined by 147,000. That means
there is a net increase in part-time employment of 372,000.
BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance
Nonfarm Payroll: +233,000 - Establishment Survey
Employment: -56,000 - Household Survey
Unemployment: -375,000 - Household Survey
Involuntary Part-Time Work: -147,000 - Household Survey
Voluntary Part-Time Work: 519,000 - Household Survey
Baseline Unemployment Rate: -0.2 to 5.3% - Household Survey
U-6 unemployment: -0.3 to 10.5% - Household Survey
Civilian Non-institutional Population: +208,000
Civilian Labor Force: -432,000 - Household Survey
Not in Labor Force: +640,000 - Household Survey
Participation Rate: -0.3 to 62.6 - Household Survey
June 2015 Employment Report
Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Employment
Report.
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 223,000 in June, and the
unemployment rate declined to 5.3 percent. Job gains occurred in
professional and business services, health care, retail trade, financial
activities, and transportation and warehousing.
Unemployment Rate - Seasonally Adjusted
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-jSfTZNhC0uI/VZVLhs3jr_I/AAAAAAAAeWQ/UrAfMuM4rt8/s400/Nonfarm%2B2015-07A.png
Nonfarm Employment
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-R8OKWBjof2I/VZVMHLLfTpI/AAAAAAAAeWY/nO2MeWEnDB8/s400/Nonfarm%2B2015-07B.png
Nonfarm Employment Change from Previous Month by Job Type
Hours and Wages
Average weekly hours of all private employees was flat at 34.5 hours.
Average weekly hours of all private service-providing employees was flat at
33.4 hours.
Average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory private workers
rose $0.02 at $20.99. Average hourly earnings of production and non-
supervisory private service-providing employees rose $0.01 at $20.78.
Birth Death Model
Starting January 2014, I dropped the Birth/Death Model charts from this
report. For those who follow the numbers, I retain this caution: Do not
subtract the reported Birth-Death number from the reported headline number.
That approach is statistically invalid. Should anything interesting arise in
the Birth/Death numbers, I will add the charts back.
Table 15 BLS Alternate Measures of Unemployment
Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the
unemployment rate really is.
Notice I said "better" approximation not to be confused with "good"
approximation.
The official unemployment rate is 5.2%. However, if you start counting all
the people who want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs
that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment
rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer
picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row
labeled U-6.
U-6 is much higher at 10.5%. Both numbers would be way higher still, were it
not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years.
Some of those dropping out of the labor force retired because they wanted to
retire. The rest is disability fraud, forced retirement, discouraged
workers, and kids moving back home because they cannot find a job. | p**f
发帖数: 3549 | 2 我老一直搞不懂啊，在生产力没有大改进的前提下，在产业结构没有大调整的前提下，
在全民涌入移动网络泡沫经济的现状下，在非移，墨黑，孕妇等坐吃山空族福利增加的
情况下，某国经济为什么会增长。。。
in
and
【在 l****z 的大作中提到】
: Establishment Survey +233K Jobs, Household Employment Survey -56K, Part-
: Time Employment +372K, Labor Force -432K
: Initial Reaction
: Today's job report (for June) once again showed a huge divergence between
: the household survey and the establishment survey.
: Household survey employment fell by 56,000 while the establishment survey
: shows a gain of 233,000 jobs. The labor force declined by 432,000 and that
: explains the drop in the unemployment rate to 5.3% from 5.5%.
: The report was weaker than it looks due to significant downward revisions in
: April and May totaling 60,000. May was revised to 254,000 from 280,000 and
| l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 3 你都不看数据的? labor force减少了430K．
非移的增加对低收入的人就是灾难, 但对不少企业来说还是好事啊, pay低了嘛.
生产力一定要大改进，经济才能增长？ 那小改进就不能增长？
【在 p**f 的大作中提到】
: 我老一直搞不懂啊，在生产力没有大改进的前提下，在产业结构没有大调整的前提下，
: 在全民涌入移动网络泡沫经济的现状下，在非移，墨黑，孕妇等坐吃山空族福利增加的
: 情况下，某国经济为什么会增长。。。
:
: in
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