m********g
发帖数: 10469 | 1 这左疯婆子一看又要悲愤了
I was wrong: Trump WILL be the next president
Jake Novak | @jakejakeny
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion
A few months ago, I wrote that Donald Trump would win the GOP presidential
nomination – but that would be the end of the line for him. I was sure that
Trump just couldn't shore up enough of the already too small Republican
base to win in November, thus nearly guaranteeing not only a loss but a big
loss to Hillary Clinton in the general election.
Well, I was wrong.
Presidential Republican candidate Donald Trump
Sandy Huffaker | AFP | Getty Images
Presidential Republican candidate Donald Trump
In the 80-odd days since I wrote that piece, I've been seeing more and more
evidence of why my predictions for Trump's demise were wrong — and that his
chances of winning in the general election look pretty decent.
The biggest reason is something very familiar to CNBC's audience: management
. In this case, it's the kind of disruptive management that refuses to
accept all the conventional wisdom and truly disrupts the status quo.
Donald Trump
Top three reasons Donald Trump is surging in the polls right now
Trump, a supposed political neophyte, seems to understand the Republican
base better than party leaders. Trump may have failed to win over all the
conservative elites represented by people like Bill Kristol and the National
Review editorial board. But what I and others forgot was that on Election
Day, there's not enough of that conservative elite base to fill a phone
booth. Securing their support is no way to win a general election.
And, as Mitt Romney found out the hard way in 2012, even being a more
moderate mainstream conservative with experience winning and running a
liberal state like Massachusetts isn't good enough to win the White House
anymore. And it's also impossible to hold down the conservative support and
expand the potential Republican voting base at the same time.
What Trump and his advisers clearly realized a long time ago was that it
would have to really disrupt the hardened "red/blue" divide to win. America'
s demographics, news media, and educational establishments have all
successfully destroyed the traditional Republican message for at least a
generation.
U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton
The three biggest mistakes Hillary Clinton is making right now
As someone who had never run for office before, Trump already had the best
chance to run away from that party title and shrinking base to create a new
coalition of voters. But he had another advantage I missed in this area: his
bluntness.
To use the kind of blunt language Trump is so fond of, the current
Republican Party is a "loser." So, Trump has to regularly prove he's not a
part of that losing team while still getting the Republican National
Committee's money and ground-game support on Election Day.
So far, that disruptive strategy has worked. He started by successfully
capturing the attention of blue collar and union workers with his attacks on
open borders and U.S. manufacturers outsourcing to Mexico and China. The
coarseness of that message successfully separated him from more cautious
Republicans. And by grabbing hold of a populist pro-blue collar message, he
defused a traditional Democratic Party weapon. He continued by raising
concerns about Muslim immigrants and even Muslim tourists in light of the
San Bernardino Jihadist shootings. That blunt talk was considered foolish
and even politically suicidal at the time, but it undoubtedly helped spur
not only Trump's primary victories but also record participation in the
Republican primary process. No Republican has done anything like this since
Richard Nixon stole the Democrats' thunder in 1972 by not only withdrawing
quickly from Vietnam but also making his historic trip to China.
Base? Trump doesn't need no stinking base.
Donald Trump
Donald Trump is winning over Wall Street—here's who they're afraid of now
And it hasn't ended there. Trump is still breaking conventional rules by
recently insulting New Mexico Governor Susan Martinez, a GOP "golden child,"
because all the conventional wisdom says Republicans need more women and
Latino voters to have a future. But remember, Trump is trying to make sure
you don't primarily identify him as a "team player" Republican anyway. That
team is a losing team and Trump wants little part of it. And he's probably
also aware that it's a waste of time for any non-Democrat to run after
elusive female and Latino voters anyway. It sounds crazy to slam Martinez,
but as Trump is proving over and over again, Trump's campaign is crazy like
a fox.
It also sounds crazy to a lot of people that Trump has been actively going
after the white vote. Why does a non-Democrat ever have to do that? Because
white voter turnout has been down in recent elections. Trump knows he needs
to energize lots of white voters who have recently stopped voting. He did
that in the primaries and it's all still working now.
GOP Chairman Reince Priebus is still coming along nicely and showing more
support for Trump day by day. According to the latest NBC/WSJ poll, 86
percent of registered Republicans now support Trump over Clinton, up from 72
percent a month ago. By the end of the GOP convention in July, that number
should be close to 95 percent. The remaining 5 percent of Republicans who
will never support Trump won't matter. The conventional wisdom about shoring
up your base was all wrong.
The second biggest mistake I made about Trump is something else the CNBC
audience should appreciate: I didn't think his incredible abilities and
experience at self-promotion would translate very well from the business and
entertainment media world to the political arena. But I forgot that Trump
has been a master business marketer for decades and has also been working
closely with some of the best writers in reality TV for more than 15 years.
And probably the best talent those writers have is making events and
comments sound truly off the cuff and natural even when they are really
completely planned and strategically weighed.
I don't think Trump has said one thing or sent out even one tweet during
this campaign that didn't sound like something he truly believed and would
naturally say or write. Even if you've hated 100 percent of the things Trump
has said and written, it's important to understand that Trump has won a
crucial marketing and persuasive victory simply by convincing you that what
he's saying and writing is his genuine voice and authentic personality. It's
called building a clear and identifiable brand. Winning an election is
still very much about connecting personally with key voters and you can only
do that if you present a clear personality or brand to the voters in the
first place. If you're the person who sees Trump's personality/brand and
have decided you hate everything about it, I have news for you: You're not
the target audience. But you're still proof that Trump's messaging is at
least very clear and that's often more than half the battle in business and
politics.
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump (l) and Democratic
presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders (c, r).
Trump-Sanders debate would be Hillary Clinton's worst nightmare
And that brings me to my last mistake about Trump's chances: I
underestimated how bad Hillary Clinton's campaign would be. To be fair, I
never thought Clinton was a particularly strong candidate. But at every
essential task of marketing and messaging, the Clinton campaign has been
surprisingly bad.
We all know Trump's key slogan/promise is "Make American Great Again." I'm
still not sure what Hillary Clinton's key slogan/promise is and I follow her
campaign very closely. Is it "I'm with Her?" If so, it's not very good in
that it doesn't seem to have anything in it for the person who isn't "her."
Clinton's Twitter feed and website are helping Trump immensely as they seem
to pump out phrases like "a Trump presidency," and "President Trump" more
often than Trump does himself. These kinds of messages present and reinforce
the idea of an actual President Trump in our subconscious brains. This is
why the old TV commercials for consumer products when we were growing up
used to avoid naming competing products as anything other than "brand x."
Clinton is frankly being poorly served by campaign manager Robby Mook, who
has worked on campaigns his entire career. Mook and his staff going up
against master private-sector marketers like Trump and company have little
chance to win in that arena. Heck, this group can't even put away Bernie
Sanders, who, in contrast, is also a candidate who presents a lot more clear
messaging and the appearance of a more authentic personality. And the worst
news for Clinton is that it may already be too late to hire a new staff and
present a new image to the public.
Of course, this election is still not over. But what is over is any notion
that Trump is going to lose by some kind of landslide. I predict many more
of my fellow pundits will come to this realization in the coming weeks.
Commentary by Jake Novak, supervising producer of "Power Lunch." Follow him
on Twitter @jakejakeny. | m*h
发帖数: 2750 | | m****g
发帖数: 2215 | 3 I enjoy reading this article.
that
big
【在 m********g 的大作中提到】
: 这左疯婆子一看又要悲愤了
: I was wrong: Trump WILL be the next president
: Jake Novak | @jakejakeny
: COMMENTSJoin the Discussion
: A few months ago, I wrote that Donald Trump would win the GOP presidential
: nomination – but that would be the end of the line for him. I was sure that
: Trump just couldn't shore up enough of the already too small Republican
: base to win in November, thus nearly guaranteeing not only a loss but a big
: loss to Hillary Clinton in the general election.
: Well, I was wrong.
| m********g
发帖数: 10469 | 4 的确分析的很到位，这口号取的好就成功了一半，希拉拉的口号是啥谁记住了。
老头现在有章有法品牌鲜明，坐看希拉拉挨揍
【在 m*h 的大作中提到】
: 内行看门道，说的是这样的文章
: 赞
| m*h
发帖数: 2750 | 5 我现在倒怕稀啦啦不获提名
【在 m********g 的大作中提到】
: 的确分析的很到位，这口号取的好就成功了一半，希拉拉的口号是啥谁记住了。
: 老头现在有章有法品牌鲜明，坐看希拉拉挨揍
| t*******d
发帖数: 12895 | | J*8
发帖数: 616 | 7 还有重要的一点： 恶霸驴用八年时间吧美国糟蹋到是可忍孰不可忍的地步。爱屋及乌
，恨屋也会及乌。
that
big
【在 m********g 的大作中提到】
: 这左疯婆子一看又要悲愤了
: I was wrong: Trump WILL be the next president
: Jake Novak | @jakejakeny
: COMMENTSJoin the Discussion
: A few months ago, I wrote that Donald Trump would win the GOP presidential
: nomination – but that would be the end of the line for him. I was sure that
: Trump just couldn't shore up enough of the already too small Republican
: base to win in November, thus nearly guaranteeing not only a loss but a big
: loss to Hillary Clinton in the general election.
: Well, I was wrong.
| s*********r
发帖数: 9493 | 8 毛毛虫可能特别希望我读这一篇吧，所以特地用了一招此地无银三百两。
文章读了。比较欣赏作者从商业管理的角度分析政治选战。里面有一些观点很有见地。
但也并非无懈可击。有时间的话可以探讨一下哈。
很奇怪这样的好文章，居然没有太多人回应呢。美新版左派右派床粉床黑似乎更愿意讨
论厕所？嗯？
that
big
【在 m********g 的大作中提到】
: 这左疯婆子一看又要悲愤了
: I was wrong: Trump WILL be the next president
: Jake Novak | @jakejakeny
: COMMENTSJoin the Discussion
: A few months ago, I wrote that Donald Trump would win the GOP presidential
: nomination – but that would be the end of the line for him. I was sure that
: Trump just couldn't shore up enough of the already too small Republican
: base to win in November, thus nearly guaranteeing not only a loss but a big
: loss to Hillary Clinton in the general election.
: Well, I was wrong.
| j*********r
发帖数: 24733 | 9 那是因为这篇没啥好讨论的，都是事实。
【在 s*********r 的大作中提到】
: 毛毛虫可能特别希望我读这一篇吧，所以特地用了一招此地无银三百两。
: 文章读了。比较欣赏作者从商业管理的角度分析政治选战。里面有一些观点很有见地。
: 但也并非无懈可击。有时间的话可以探讨一下哈。
: 很奇怪这样的好文章，居然没有太多人回应呢。美新版左派右派床粉床黑似乎更愿意讨
: 论厕所？嗯？
:
: that
: big
| g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 10 这篇要等到甜妈来发表了谬论之后，才会有人来砸她。 | j*********r
发帖数: 24733 | 11 这个才是对拉稀痢最致命的，说是a little bit short应该是有significant的短缺了
，恭喜拉稀痢。
【在 t*******d 的大作中提到】
: 可怜舔妈又废了一条纸尿布
: Team Clinton Panics As May Fundraising Slows
: http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/06/01/team-clinton-panics-fundraising-slows/
|
|
