m*z
发帖数: 2356 | 1 抄来一段.不怕一万
Hindenburg Omen, 据说这是market要crash的前兆. 今天触发了. 下面的图是2007 and
2008出现Hindenburg Omen时的情况: | b**t
发帖数: 656 | 2 加抄一段:
The Omen finally got triggered today, first, a quick refresher of what the
Omen is:
It is a set of conditions, and rules that when all are met, greatly
increases the odds of a large sell-off, or crash of the markets. In fact no
crashes in the last 22 years have happened, that did not first have a
confirmed signal of a Hindenburg Omen. Just because all the conditions have
been might, and it becomes a confirmed Hindenburg Omen does not guarantee a
crash, only greatly increases the chances of a severe market correction
ahead. Another way to think about it is without a confirmed Hindenburg Omen
in place, Bulls can sleep a little better at night knowing that most likely
they will not awaken to the market down 10%. In fact the odds of a crash
based upon the history since 1985 is 27% chance after two or more signals
were confirmed.
The best way to think about it is under normal conditions, there can be
large number of stocks, setting new 52 week highs, or a large number setting
52 week lows, but not both. Things become out of balance when large numbers
of stocks are setting new highs, and lows at the same time. Having one
sector soaring, and another setting new lows is not good in the balance of a
healthy market.
The traditional definition of a Hindenburg Omen is that the daily number of
NYSE New 52 Week Highs and the Daily number of New 52 Week Lows must both be
so high as to have the lesser of the two be greater than 2.2 percent of
total NYSE issues traded that day.
And that has been updated to include two more sets of conditions to filter
out false readings;
1-That the daily number of NYSE new 52 Week Highs and the daily number of
new 52 Week Lows must both be greater than 2.2 percent of total NYSE issues
traded that day.
2-That the smaller of these numbers is greater than 75. (this is not a rule
but a function of the 2.2% of the total issues) ( as of 7-12-2010, 69 issues
are all that is required for the 2.2% rule!!)
3-That the NYSE 10 Week moving average is rising.
4-That the McClellan Oscillator is negative on that same day.
5-That new 52 Week Highs cannot be more than twice the new 52 Week Lows (
however it is fine for new 52 Week Lows to be more than double new 52 Week
Highs). This condition is absolutely mandatory.
Rules 1 and 2, are pretty much addressing the same criteria, because if you
have 75 issues making new highs/lows, then mathematically, you also have
achieved 2.2%. The numbers of issues fluctuates daily and it is quicker to
use rule number 2. In other words, if condition 2 has been met, then
condition 1 will be met by default.
The 10 week Moving Average is trending upwards, satisfying rule #3
The McClellan Oscillator is below "0", satisfying rule #4
The number of new 52 week highs today closed above 75, satisfying rules #1,
and #2
The number of new 52 week lows surpassed 75 today, and closed at 76,
satisfying rules #1, and #2, and since the number of new highs are not twice
the number of new lows, rule #5 has been satisfied
So, now that we have all five conditions met, now what?
We have an unconfirmed Hindenburg Omen, In order to have a CONFIRMED
Hindenburg Omen you must have more then one unconfirmed Hindenburg Omen, or
signal, in a 36 day or less period.
Another interesting observation is that once you get two confirmed
Hindenburg Omens in a 36 day period , the probability of a severe decline
does not seem to increase as more Omens occur, it is possible to have
multiple Omens before a crash happens. Multiple signals are telling us
things are not getting better, that something continues to be out of balance
in the markets.
Things are going to be very interesting now that we have a signal.
McHugh's research noted that plunges can occur as soon as the next day, or
as far into the future as four months.
and
【在 m*z 的大作中提到】
: 抄来一段.不怕一万
: Hindenburg Omen, 据说这是market要crash的前兆. 今天触发了. 下面的图是2007 and
: 2008出现Hindenburg Omen时的情况:
| m*z
发帖数: 2356 | 3 Wall Street: The First Hindenburg Omen Confirmed
The feared Hindenburg Omen was Thursday confirmed in the US stock market as
the number of new highs was 136, and new lows was at 69, according to The
Wall Street Journal‘s interactive Market Data Center.
“The more confirmations, the scarier it gets from a technical perspective,
not to mention the conversion into a self-fulfilling prophecy.”
The first omen was spotted on August 12th: “The indicator may suggest a
savage equity downturn is imminent,” the famous analyst Albert Edwards at
Societe Generale said then. Today, a week later, the Hindenburg Omen has
been confirmed for the first time.
Last week’s plunge in US stocks triggered a technical indicator known as
the Hindenburg Omen that may signal a more severe selloff.
See: Feared Indicator Warns Of Catastrophic Stock Market Event
The market signal, named for a German zeppelin that caught fire and crashed
more than seven decades ago, occurs when an unusually high number of
companies in the New York Stock Exchange reach 52-week highs and lows.
The indicator last occurred in October 2008. The signal occurred seven
times in 2008 as the S&P 500 posted its biggest annual drop since the Great
Depression.
The Hindenburg Omen must be confirmed with a second occurrence within 36
days to raise the alarm.
And that’s what happened today.
Self-Fulfilling Prophecy
“The more confirmations, the scarier it gets from a technical perspective,
not to mention the conversion into a self-fulfilling prophecy – like every
other technical indicator,” Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge writes.
In addition; it must also occur when the NYSE McClellan Oscillator, a
measure of market momentum, is negative.
Well, today’s were the McClellan oscillator at NYSE was negative at -83.6.
According to Wikipedia this is the following criteria of the Hindenburg Omen
, calculated daily using Wall Street Journal figures for consistency:
1. The daily number of NYSE new 52 Week Highs and the daily number of new
52 Week Lows are both greater than 2.2 percent of total NYSE issues traded
that day. Based on approximately 3100 NYSE issues, the 2.2% threshold is 69.
2. The NYSE 10 Week moving average is rising.
3. The McClellan Oscillator is negative on the same day.
4. New 52 Week Highs cannot be more than twice the new 52 Week Lows (
though new 52 Week Lows may be more than double new Highs).
“The traditional definition requires each condition to occur on the same
day, and be repeated within a 36-day period.”
“The occurrence of all criteria on a single day is often referred to as an
unconfirmed Hindenburg Omen, because the indicator has a high false alarm
rate.”An Imperfect Indicator
To eliminate false positives some technical analysts have imposed the
condition that the Hindenburg Omen
* must be triggered 3 times in a row within a month from the 1st
triggering event for said initial trigger signal to be considered to be
valid
* is only valid when “all tightly coupled triggerings are within a
fortnight“
* will indicate a possible future downturn or correction, depending on
the magnitude of any “one off” triggering
The creators of the signal have not fully explained the selection of the
threshold value of 2.2% of issues traded.
Because of the specific and seemingly random nature of the Hindenburg Omen
criteria, the phenomenon may be simply a case of overfitting. That is, by
backtesting through a large data set with many different variables,
correlations can be found that don’t really have predictive significance. | w*******d
发帖数: 3714 | | m*z
发帖数: 2356 | | m*z
发帖数: 2356 | 6 Today, 3rd one in a span of 7 trading days. | m*z
发帖数: 2356 | | m*****t
发帖数: 257 | 8 where did you find it? $NYA ma 10 is moving down instead of up
【在 m*z 的大作中提到】
: 4th confirmation today
| m*z
发帖数: 2356 | 9 (ZT)
【在 m*****t 的大作中提到】
: where did you find it? $NYA ma 10 is moving down instead of up
| m*****t
发帖数: 257 | 10 $NYA MA 10 WEEKLY is heading down
【在 m*z 的大作中提到】
: (ZT)
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