y*****l
发帖数: 5997 | | y*****l
发帖数: 5997 | 2 11:55 Do you think there is > 50% chance someone buys HGSI in next 12 mos.?
Yes
( 68% )No
( 32% )
Thursday October 20, 2011 11:55
11:56 adam feuerstein: Hello! Welcome to the October edition of Biotech
Stock Live Chat.
Thursday October 20, 2011 11:56 adam feuerstein
12:02 adam feuerstein: hi everyone
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:02 adam feuerstein
12:02 adam feuerstein: I'll get started in a minute or so, let folks log in
.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:02 adam feuerstein
12:02 adam feuerstein: say hello in the comments section
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:02 adam feuerstein
12:03 adam feuerstein: and answer the poll question
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:03 adam feuerstein
12:03 [Comment From BB BB : ]
Hi Adam!
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:03 BB
12:03 [Comment From lovebiochatwadam lovebiochatwadam : ]
hola
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:03 lovebiochatwadam
12:03 adam feuerstein: i like your alias!
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:03 adam feuerstein
12:03 [Comment From BB BB : ]
This is my first time here
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:03 BB
12:04 adam feuerstein: welcome and thanks for logging in.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:04 adam feuerstein
12:04 [Comment From Ira P Ira P : ]
Do you think $CBST buys $OPTR?
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:04 Ira P
12:05 adam feuerstein: Interesting question. Strategically, it could make
sense. CBST does have its own c. diff drug in clinical trials, so that may
be a reason for not buying OPTR.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:05 adam feuerstein
12:05 adam feuerstein: the Dificid launch does seem to be moving along
nicely, though. CBST commentary last night was encouraging, as are the most
recent prescription data.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:05 adam feuerstein
12:05 [Comment From Dennis D. Dennis D. : ]
Where do you see NEOP in the next 6 months?
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:05 Dennis D.
12:07 adam feuerstein: probably trading with the market, unless the company
does something significant. The FDA's lymphoseek review is going to take 10
months, so you won't see a decision until June. FDA may schedule an
advisory panel to review lymphoseek, so if that happens, it will be a
significant catalyst for the stock.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:07 adam feuerstein
12:07 [Comment From lovebiochatwadam lovebiochatwadam : ]
adam I am long a bunch of ariad. I see a 14% short position in aria...should
i be worried? are the shorts in aria on to something or will it fuel the
stock up?? thanks
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:07 lovebiochatwadam
12:07 adam feuerstein: The short story in ARIA is more about valuation than
anything else, i think. significant data on ponatinib coming at the ASH
meeting in December.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:07 adam feuerstein
12:08 [Comment From CC CC : ]
Adam, what do you look for in institutional sponsorship when investing in
development stage biotech?
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:08 CC
12:09 adam feuerstein: good see to see smart investors with a proven track
record. don't want to see speculators or short-term guys loading up on stock
.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:09 adam feuerstein
12:09 [Comment From Ira P Ira P : ]
Hi Adam, are you drinking in the dugout?
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:09 Ira P
12:09 adam feuerstein: yes, my red solo cup is filled with...
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:09 adam feuerstein
12:09 [Comment From rt rt : ]
no comment, but we all knew the rumor of hgsi being bought was bogus, whats
your view?
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:09 rt
12:10 adam feuerstein: i tend to agree, mainly b/c rumors that get floated
like this rarely pan out. i think you can make a strong strategic case for
GSK buying HGSI but only if Benlysta proves itself to be a significant
commercial success.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:10 adam feuerstein
12:11 adam feuerstein: Yesterday on Twitter, Jason Napodano of Zacks said
something smart that bears repeating Big Pharma is generally less interested
in making acquisitions based on deeply discounted value as they are on
minimizing risk.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:11 adam feuerstein
12:12 adam feuerstein: What that means, generally, is that Big Pharma would
prefer to pay more if it means they get a proven asset with less risk. in
the case of GSK and HGSI, it probably means that GSK wants to wait to see
how Benlysta pans out even if means paying more.
this is what Lilly did with Icos for example.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:12 adam feuerstein
12:12 adam feuerstein: anyway, a good rule to keep in mind.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:12 adam feuerstein
12:12 [Comment From BB BB : ]
I had some q's for you re: your favorite stock, CYCC :P
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:12 BB
12:12 adam feuerstein: ask away
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:12 adam feuerstein
12:12 [Comment From kent8692 kent8692 : ]
NEOP still under attack from the shorts? thought it would move more today...
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:12 kent8692
12:13 adam feuerstein: NEOP was up about 10%, right? look, FDA acceptance
of an NDA is generally not a big deal, so i wasn't expecting a huge move.
The real move will come on FDA approval decision. There is still risk around
the review.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:13 adam feuerstein
12:13 [Comment From : ]
What's going on with JAZZ?
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:13
12:14 adam feuerstein: the JAZZ thing is troubling -- to summarize quickly,
FDA sent a warning letter about unreported adverse events and patient
deaths. JAZZ blames its contractor who handles the prescription and
distribution process... fda says it's JAZZ's responsibility.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:14 adam feuerstein
12:15 adam feuerstein: i dont think Xyrem is going to be pulled from the
market, but JAZZ could find itself fined or faced with having to strengthen
it's reporting system. Worst case, FDA could impose a consent decree.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:15 adam feuerstein
12:16 [Comment From Alan Alan : ]
What about HGSI?
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:16 Alan
12:16 adam feuerstein: i discussed the GSK rumors above. Other than that,
look for Q3 results. Benlysta sales expectations are $20-21M. based on
current script data, it looks like HGSI should be able to meet.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:16 adam feuerstein
12:17 [Comment From biotech pain biotech pain : ]
Adam, are you surprised that SQNM finally launched T21 test?
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:17 biotech pain
12:18 adam feuerstein: no surprised about the launch although the timing
seemed earlier to me than expected. my position has been that FDA will step
in to stop the commercial launch due to concerns about regulating these
types of genetic tests. i must admit to being a bit nervous about this
position although it could still happen.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:18 adam feuerstein
12:18 adam feuerstein: if the T21 test does launch, SQNM faces some
commercial challenges around pricing, adoption and looming competition. i
think that's why you havent seen the stock really take off.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:18 adam feuerstein
12:19 [Comment From Steve Steve : ]
Do you think the filing (and possible/eventual approval) of VX-770 by $VRTX
will help steady its stock price if telaprevir scrips do flatten or continue
to stay flat over the next 6-10 months?
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:19 Steve
12:19 adam feuerstein: i really like the brand name for VX-770 - Kalydeco.
Yes, approval should help, how much is hard to say.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:19 adam feuerstein
12:19 [Comment From High Adams High Adams : ]
Any other good rumors out there (or ones u care to make up)? lol
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:19 High Adams
12:20 adam feuerstein: Hmmm...
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:20 adam feuerstein
12:20 [Comment From Rick Rick : ]
Whats your view on Dendreon earnings coming up? Zytiga sounds like they have
issues
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:20 Rick
12:21 adam feuerstein: DNDN - low expectations going into Q3 earnings. that
's good, i guess. Provenge sales consensus is around $64M, last time i
checked.
what sort of issues is Zytiga having?
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:21 adam feuerstein
12:21 [Comment From StevenB StevenB : ]
MELA is still trading fairly high, any reason?
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:21 StevenB
12:21 adam feuerstein: stubborness? speculation?
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:21 adam feuerstein
12:21 [Comment From kent8692 kent8692 : ]
$AMRN....drifting....drifting....market bored with it?
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:21 kent8692
12:21 adam feuerstein: probably. I know I'm tired of all the speculation.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:21 adam feuerstein
12:22 adam feuerstein: With that said, Leerink did put out a note the other
day saying the re-exam of the patent looks to be going well.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:22 adam feuerstein
12:22 [Comment From John John : ]
What are your thoughts on IDIX?
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:22 John
12:24 adam feuerstein: IDIX -- watch for new data on the Hep C drug '184.
the "hidden" story behind IDIX is a bit more interesting.... it's patent
estate around Hep C non-nucs. There are some who believe that IDIX may be
due a royalty from VRUS if VRUS gets its non-nucs approved.
that's something to keep an eye on...
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:24 adam feuerstein
12:24 [Comment From ksl ksl : ]
HGSI: Do you think that a 56% drop in pps in 6 mos is justified as
punishment for missing initial launch estimates? Has the commercial outlook
or efficacy changed that much, or were all of the analyst projections and
price targets way off the mark to begin with?
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:24 ksl
12:25 adam feuerstein: i don't know what is justified or not, so much
depends on the broader market.
with that said, the benlysta launch has been challenging and continues to be
challenging, based on feedback that investors are getting from practicing
docs. reimbursement, lackluster patient demand, efficacy that is real but
modest.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:25 adam feuerstein
12:26 [Comment From KevinCCC KevinCCC : ]
I was shocked at the track record involving micro-cap companies with p3
cancer drugs. Seemed to ruffle many feathers. I think an important thing to
keep in mind is causation. Micro-cap doesn't cause the p3s to fail.
Investors should use Mcap as an indicator to look deeper into the story
because something might be amiss. Don't blame the smoke coming from the hood
of your stopped car...look under the hood.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:26 KevinCCC
12:27 adam feuerstein: true but i'd also say that micro-cap companies tend
to push dubious drugs further into clinical trials because they have little
else to do.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:27 adam feuerstein
12:27 adam feuerstein: Whereas, larger, more successful companies can be
more selective, choosing to shelve drugs with questionable efficacy because
they have deeper pipelines.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:27 adam feuerstein
12:28 adam feuerstein: let's be honest - a lot of small drug and biotech
companies out there are simply vehicles by which management is paid a hefty
salary. they don't want the gravy train to end.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:28 adam feuerstein
12:28 [Comment From : ]
What do you thing of CELG?
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:28
12:29 adam feuerstein: i like CELG. A large-cap biotech with growth --
something sorely lacking these days.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:29 adam feuerstein
12:29 [Comment From Gaddafi Gaddafi : ]
Adam, thoughts on ACUR now that NEXAFED's commercialization has been delayed
? And how long of a delay are we looking at?
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:29 Gaddafi
12:30 adam feuerstein: I saw that ACUR PR on Nexafed this morning. Made me
think it would be a good episode of Breaking Bad.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:30 adam feuerstein
12:30 [Comment From : ]
JNJ was bullish on Zytiga in the conference call. What issues?
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:30
12:30 adam feuerstein: ya, I'm not aware of any significant issues with
Zytiga.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:30 adam feuerstein
12:30 [Comment From John S John S : ]
Is Leerink even credible though? They still have a $3 PT on CYCC lol
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:30 John S
12:30 adam feuerstein: Leerink is CYCC's banker. Enough said.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:30 adam feuerstein
12:31 [Comment From Rick B Rick B : ]
Also, VRTX CEO is touting a great quarter, but the stock continues to be
down. There are other Hep C companies, but there 3-5 years off. Do you see
VRTX being acquired anytime soon before the revenues hit $1B?
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:31 Rick B
12:31 adam feuerstein: I can't predict that.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:31 adam feuerstein
12:31 [Comment From Chris Weitzel Chris Weitzel : ]
Adam. Do you think Martin is stubborn and stay short NEOP or do you think he
will start to cover? He has approx 10 months to cover so no rush but was
just curious.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:31 Chris Weitzel
12:32 adam feuerstein: You need to ask Martin about that. I was giving him
a hard time on Twitter today about needing to admit he was wrong about NEOP
getting an RTF.
He may still be right next year if FDA rejects lymphoseek. we'll see.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:32 adam feuerstein
12:33 [Comment From dsobek dsobek : ]
Keep in mind two reasons why micro-caps fail phase III (aside from Adam's
point). 1. if the drug looks really good is phase II market cap rises above
micro levels, i.e SGEN. 2. larger companies on the look out for good
products and often buy best early on.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:33 dsobek
12:33 [Comment From Ira P Ira P : ]
Adam that micro caps story was fascinating! Thank you!
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:33 Ira P
12:33 adam feuerstein: thanks
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:33 adam feuerstein
12:33 [Comment From Guest Guest : ]
Don't you think KERX did a much better job in their Phase II trials than the
typical small cap biotech company?
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:33 Guest
12:34 adam feuerstein: incrementally better, yes, in that the ph 2 was
randomized, controlled. my column yesterday discusses the flaws.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:34 adam feuerstein
12:34 [Comment From Rick Rick : ]
Thanks Adam, yeah Zytiga I heard with all the side effects. Sounds like
problems down the road. http://www.rxlist.com/zytiga-drug.htm Thanks for the info Adam...
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:34 Rick
12:34 [Comment From dsobek dsobek : ]
Also, talking about micro-caps pushing drugs. While I was disappointed with
SGMO DN results, they took the tough (and right) decision to dump the
program.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:34 dsobek
12:34 adam feuerstein: agreed.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:34 adam feuerstein
12:34 [Comment From Steve Steve : ]
Adam: Tuesday is Q3 result day for $CTIC. Can we count on you for some good
humor as always? I hope so...
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:34 Steve
12:35 adam feuerstein: oh, there is always humor involved when Jim Bianco
holds a conference call.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:35 adam feuerstein
12:35 [Comment From Roger Roger : ]
TRGT has an EV of about 250 M. Is market expecting TC5214 to fail? Do you
know of any analysts who are bearish on the drug? Also which trials do you
think have the best chance of succeeding? The flex dose or the fixed dose
trials? Thanks.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:35 Roger
12:36 adam feuerstein: I'm a fan of TRGT.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:36 adam feuerstein
12:37 adam feuerstein: I'm hoping that the 1st ph 3 data later this year
are positive. i wrote a column about it recently, trying to find the link
while i type here.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:37 adam feuerstein
12:38 adam feuerstein: Here's my TRGT column
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11257078/1/biotech-stock-mailbag
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:38 adam feuerstein
12:38 adam feuerstein: i hate the search function on our site.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:38 adam feuerstein
12:38 [Comment From lovebiochatwadam lovebiochatwadam : ]
any new information on spectrum sppi good or bad??
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:38 lovebiochatwadam
12:38 adam feuerstein: waiting for the AMAG-ALTH deal to fail so SPPI can
acquire Folotyn.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:38 adam feuerstein
12:39 [Comment From ColfaxCapital ColfaxCapital : ]
Are you a "paid schill" as many people claim you are? Thank you. (LOL)
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:39 ColfaxCapital
12:39 adam feuerstein: is that how you spell Schill? shill? shell?
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:39 adam feuerstein
12:40 adam feuerstein: You can ask my dog Max, he knows I can't be bought.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:40 adam feuerstein
12:40 [Comment From Kevin Bennett Kevin Bennett : ]
Like earlier commenters, I too am puzzled by underwhelming up move of NEOP
in response to NDA acceptance. Stock was $5.48 when Shrekli began his short
attack. Even as late as last Friday it was trading at 3.10. Got driven down
to 2.60 on late bear raid. Yet today, most of the upward pop has quickly
dissipated. Really thought it would be healthily into the $3+ range based on
the favorable news. Even hoped it might get back to where it was when M.
Shrekli targeted it for his short play. Any thoughts?
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:40 Kevin Bennett
12:40 adam feuerstein: Different market environment today than when the
NEOP controversy reared its head last spring, early summer.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:40 adam feuerstein
12:41 [Comment From dc dc : ]
Hey Adam.. curious (and obviously asking you to speculate).. do you think
there's any chance (if so your take on a %age) of a buyout of or partnership
with Keryx (AEZS doesn't count)?
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:41 dc
12:41 adam feuerstein: Only if perifosine works.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:41 adam feuerstein
12:41 [Comment From biomajor biomajor : ]
hello adam. thank you for your time today. we appreciate these chats very
much!
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:41 biomajor
12:41 adam feuerstein: thanks. i like em, too
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:41 adam feuerstein
12:42 [Comment From hp hp : ]
Is FOLOTYN such a big deal for SPPI? They are close to announcing their own
SPA results for Belinostat.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:42 hp
12:43 adam feuerstein: Folotyn is never going to be a huge drug, but it can
be a money maker for a company like SPPI, which can drop the drug into the
bag of its existing Hem-Onc salesforce. Nice leverage. And who knows if
belinostat even works? What if it fails?
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:43 adam feuerstein
12:43 [Comment From John S John S : ]
Any inside info on this years Worst BioTech CEOs?
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:43 John S
12:43 adam feuerstein: Yes! thanks for the reminder. I need to start the
nominating process. any suggestions for Worst Biotech CEO of the 2011?
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:43 adam feuerstein
12:43 [Comment From HandjobBob HandjobBob : ]
do you think Spurs gonna end top 4?
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:43 HandjobBob
12:44 adam feuerstein: uh oh. you're getting me started talking soccer. Yes
, I like to think Spurs do have a chance for the 4th spot. It will be
difficult, perhaps not likely, but I'm hopeful. They're playing pretty well
right now.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:44 adam feuerstein
12:44 [Comment From ColfaxCapital ColfaxCapital : ]
Spiro Rombotis!
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:44 ColfaxCapital
12:45 [Comment From BuggyFunBunny BuggyFunBunny : ]
HEB/Carter
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:45 BuggyFunBunny
12:45 [Comment From dc dc : ]
Of ARNA, VVUS or OREX who do you feel has the best chance at approval of an
obesity drug?
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:45 dc
12:45 adam feuerstein: none of the above
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:45 adam feuerstein
12:45 [Comment From : ]
I hate to say it, because I respect the guy, but Alfred Mann did an
absolutely horrible job this year, IMO
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:45
12:45 [Comment From lovebiochatwadam lovebiochatwadam : ]
i nominate gert kersten of cel sci although i do give him credit for keeping
a 20yr bioscam alive
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:45 lovebiochatwadam
12:45 [Comment From BuggyFunBunny BuggyFunBunny : ]
weight watchers
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:45 BuggyFunBunny
12:45 adam feuerstein: Ha!
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:45 adam feuerstein
12:45 [Comment From BB BB : ]
CYCC down 70% from 4months ago.. Mgmt has said nothing
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:45 BB
12:45 [Comment From Jonathan Jonathan : ]
McClellan from RXPC for worst CEO!
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:45 Jonathan
12:46 adam feuerstein: that's too easy
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:46 adam feuerstein
12:46 [Comment From sam sam : ]
what's your call on the CLSN scenario..with regards to the HALT..
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:46 sam
12:46 adam feuerstein: i haven't followed the ongoing CLSN trial that
closely, but i guess the most likely outcome would be continue until final
analysis. that would be a good outcome.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:46 adam feuerstein
12:46 [Comment From I luv RPC I luv RPC : ]
CEO of KV.A?
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:46 I luv RPC
12:47 [Comment From : ]
With GSK invovled with HGSI's Benlysta, does that make it more appealing or
less appealing for a competitor such as AMGN or BIIB to take over HGSI?
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:47
12:47 adam feuerstein: i don't know. it does complicate matters, i guess.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:47 adam feuerstein
12:48 [Comment From dsobek dsobek : ]
What are your thoughts on ZIOP and palifosfamide in SCS and NSCLC?
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:48 dsobek
12:48 adam feuerstein: i liked the pali data on sarcoma when it was
presented at ASCO a couple of years ago. The problem is that the ph 3 trial
is taking such a long time.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:48 adam feuerstein
12:48 [Comment From : ]
Are you familiar with CBLI? Any comments?
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:48
12:49 adam feuerstein: radiation drug. didn't this have its 15 minutes of
fame around the Japanese earthquake. Since then, nothing.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:49 adam feuerstein
12:49 [Comment From StevenB StevenB : ]
Do you think ALXA will end up getting on the 12/13 FDA Panel agenda?
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:49 StevenB
12:49 adam feuerstein: I don't know, but isn't the timing for an $ALXA
panel getting tight?
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:49 adam feuerstein
12:50 [Comment From ItzMe ItzMe : ]
If you were holding VRUS stock, do you think there is upside room enough to
continue holding, or high enough to lighten position?
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:50 ItzMe
12:51 adam feuerstein: i don't give individual investment advice. VRUS has
been the best biotech stock this year... simply amazing. what does Cramer
say about taking profits? Don't be pig... pigs get slaughtered?
VRUS data next month at the AASLD conference is important. So far, '7977
seems like the real deal.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:51 adam feuerstein
12:51 [Comment From sam sam : ]
Any idea which was the last oncology drug/process to be halted for efficacy?
?thanks.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:51 sam
12:53 adam feuerstein: I can't recall the last time a ph 3 cancer drug
trial was halted early for efficacy. Maybe it was JNJs's Zytiga? Is that
right? I remember that ONXX's nexavar was stopped early in liver cancer.
It's relatively rare occurence. Trials are typically designed with stringent
stopping rules. a drug really has to work well, with a really significant
benefit, to stop early.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:53 adam feuerstein
12:54 [Comment From PEPPE PEPPE : ]
Why do you think KERX is going to fail, if in ph2 trial they showed some
great results? You are based on stats from other companies? What happened to
DNDN? You said DNDN would fail too. I think its easy to say negative things
about biotech because the chances for a new drug to get approve is really
low. I would like to see some stats when you were right saying positive
things! I think KERX showed GREAT results on ph2 trial.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:54 PEPPE
12:54 adam feuerstein: i'm not going to rehash the KERX arguments here. You
can read what i've written over the past week.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:54 adam feuerstein
12:55 [Comment From lovebiochatwadam lovebiochatwadam : ]
are there any oncology drugs which are working so well the fda will approve
earlier than expected (per sam question) ???
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:55 lovebiochatwadam
12:55 adam feuerstein: yes. that does happen.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:55 adam feuerstein
12:55 [Comment From Ira P Ira P : ]
Any thoughts on $INCY December 3 PDUFA?
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:55 Ira P
12:55 adam feuerstein: why isn't FDA convening an advisory panel to review
INCY's drug? Seems weird to me.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:55 adam feuerstein
12:55 [Comment From Bob Bob : ]
Adam are you not saying anything about Kerx due to fear around a lawsuit
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:55 Bob
12:56 adam feuerstein: um... no.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:56 adam feuerstein
12:56 adam feuerstein: I'm not saying anything about KERX bc i've said a
lot about perifosine already. i don't feel like repeating myself.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:56 adam feuerstein
12:56 [Comment From Ira P Ira P : ]
Could no panel for $INCY be a positive?
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:56 Ira P
12:58 adam feuerstein: absolutely. it could mean FDA has no issues with
ruxo... to me, it just seems like FDA would hold a panel.
it's been pointed out to me recently that FDA did not hold panels for JNJ's
Zytiga or Roche's melanoma drug (the name escapes me here)
so maybe it's not unusual for FDA to skip panels.
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:58 adam feuerstein
12:58 [Comment From Trader Trader : ]
Hi Adam, I was wondering why you like MDVN prostate cancer drug so much,
even though the company has questionable credibility after their earlier
drug for Huntington disease failed miserably after years of hyping it ?
Thursday October 20, 2011 12:58 Trader
1:00 adam feuerstein: MDVN -- Dimebon is a different drug, of course.
MDV3100 data look good and you can take some comfort in Zytiga, which is
approved and has a similar mechanism.
I agree with you that the Dimebon situation has cast a shadow over MDVN, so
the company really needs MDV3100 to work.
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:00 adam feuerstein
1:00 [Comment From John John : ]
Do you have any concrete argument about perifosine? or you are just assuming
that its not going to work?
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:00 John
1:00 adam feuerstein: again, the stories I've written lay out a cogent
argument for why perifosine is likely to fail. so please, read them.
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:00 adam feuerstein
1:00 [Comment From sam sam : ]
if incy fails to get approval will it benefit ymi..
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:00 sam
1:00 adam feuerstein: yes
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:00 adam feuerstein
1:01 [Comment From dsobek dsobek : ]
Also, in terms of INCY, it was a phase III trial conducting under an SPA
unlike, for instance, SGEN Adcetris which was a phase II accelerated
approval.
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:01 dsobek
1:02 [Comment From asstastic asstastic : ]
DCTH any thoughts?
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:02 asstastic
1:02 adam feuerstein: I'm wondering if the New Zealand sales force will
ride around the country on unicorns.
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:02 adam feuerstein
1:03 How will shareholders vote on the AMAG-ALTH merger?
Reject
( 42% )Approv
( 12% )I don't care
( 45% )
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:03
1:03 adam feuerstein: new poll question
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:03 adam feuerstein
1:04 [Comment From Toofew Toofew : ]
Another NEOP question. Does the acceptance of the application mean that
Martin's citizen petition is no longer an issue?
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:04 Toofew
1:05 adam feuerstein: Really good question. I don't know for sure, but i
think FDA still has to rule on the CP. I would assume that by accepting the
NDA, however, the ruling is somewhat self evident.
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:05 adam feuerstein
1:05 [Comment From Snoopo from Germany Snoopo from Germany : ]
Hello Adam, I think Bob is a little right, isn't he? Predict the good
biotechs is not so easy! But it's more interesting than always look for the
bad ones. Besides, I like your columns anyway ;-) !!
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:05 Snoopo from Germany
1:05 [Comment From farboo farboo : ]
I've raised a ruckus with Keryx Pharma(KERX_) predicting the failure of the
colon cancer drug perifosine, but I'm more than happy to continue the debate
today. hmmm
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:05 farboo
1:06 adam feuerstein: you got me. ask away.
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:06 adam feuerstein
1:06 [Comment From simpson simpson : ]
If Provenge were cheaper, would you be more positive about dndn
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:06 simpson
1:07 adam feuerstein: If Provenge were cheaper, the company may not have
blown up. i guess the answer is yes, although DNDN's problems are not just
about Provenge's price.
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:07 adam feuerstein
1:07 [Comment From : ]
adam...seriously...what about biod? it's being acquired and at a great price
.
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:07
1:07 adam feuerstein: Was BIOD acquired?
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:07 adam feuerstein
1:07 [Comment From KevinCCC KevinCCC : ]
If provenge were cheaper everyone would be more positive about it.
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:07 KevinCCC
1:07 [Comment From Canha Holdings Canha Holdings : ]
i guess you don´t want to talk about AMLN or don't have any arguments
about Bydureon.
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:07 Canha Holdings
1:08 adam feuerstein: no arguments, really. FDA decison early next year. i'
m assuming approval. then it's the slog of selling the drug.
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:08 adam feuerstein
1:09 [Comment From john john : ]
I've read them, but I dont see any strong point to be sure that perifosine
is going to fail. do you have anything else? Like numbers proving that
perifosine is not working? I only have numbers showing that perifosine is
working.
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:09 john
1:10 adam feuerstein: you can disagree with the points i made about KERX
and perifosine. where you see data showing the drug works, others see a
flawed study that is inconclusive. That's what makes markets work - two
sides.
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:10 adam feuerstein
1:10 [Comment From kent8692 kent8692 : ]
DNDN's problem = "cost density"
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:10 kent8692
1:10 adam feuerstein: hey! i'm calling foul... no jargon here.
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:10 adam feuerstein
1:10 [Comment From Amy Amy : ]
DCTH dependent on US?
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:10 Amy
1:11 adam feuerstein: i'd say yes, DCTH is dependent on US approval and
sales. I have serious reservations about the EU commercial potential.
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:11 adam feuerstein
1:11 [Comment From farboo farboo : ]
your initial argument regarding persofine was based on statistical
assessment of companies market cap. what assumptions did you make regarding
overall market conditions. the market alone can move market cap by hundreds
of millions
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:11 farboo
1:12 adam feuerstein: hundreds of millions? not really. hard to see the
market alone having such a big effect.
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:12 adam feuerstein
1:12 [Comment From BuggyFunBunny BuggyFunBunny : ]
DNDN's problem = "no effects"
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:12 BuggyFunBunny
1:12 adam feuerstein: that is one of DNDN's issues. agreed. perhaps more
accurate to say "no measurable effects" on tumor size, etc.
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:12 adam feuerstein
1:12 [Comment From JF JF : ]
Adam, any opinions on SIGA vs PIP? both have been hammered since the
Delaware courts ruled.
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:12 JF
1:13 adam feuerstein: haven't followed SIGA v PIP. sorry.
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:13 adam feuerstein
1:13 [Comment From Wetterhorn Wetterhorn : ]
Do ever think we will see price controls from the FDA ala Europe? The UK,
for example, rejected Bristol's melanoma drug Yervoy last week, saying it
was too expensive ($120,000/1 course of treatment). Yervoy is key to BMY's
growth and patent issues, this would be a killer for smaller biotechs I
would think.
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:13 Wetterhorn
1:14 adam feuerstein: i don't see a realistic scenario where EU-type price
controls come to the U.S. Perhaps some other form of cost effectiveness, but
not outright government setting prices.
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:14 adam feuerstein
1:14 [Comment From Ben Del Vecchio Ben Del Vecchio : ]
Follow up on NEOP. Isnt what Martin did stock manipulation and of
questionable legality?
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:14 Ben Del Vecchio
1:15 adam feuerstein: We had this debate on Twitter today. MArtin's filing
of the CP was legal. Was it ethical? That's questionable. I can sympathize
with those who say it wasn't ethical.
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:15 adam feuerstein
1:16 adam feuerstein: I give Martin credit for being public with his short
thesis on NEOP. He did lay it out for all to see.
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:16 adam feuerstein
1:17 [Comment From ItzMe ItzMe : ]
What's holding up those supposed 17+ partnership/buyout talks for AMRN?
lowball offers, IP protection?
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:17 ItzMe
1:17 adam feuerstein: who the hell knows.
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:17 adam feuerstein
1:18 [Comment From kent8692 kent8692 : ]
What Martin did, while unethical as hell, was, genuis...Weak/retail
ownership, price runs on no real news, then one or two very bearish articles
, the CP, and you have a 50% drop in stock price
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:18 kent8692
1:18 [Comment From Sk8man Sk8man : ]
Any thoughts on Star Scientific...more specifically, Anatabloc?
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:18 Sk8man
1:18 adam feuerstein: snake oil
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:18 adam feuerstein
1:18 [Comment From farboo farboo : ]
nice dodge. your initial article indicated that persofine would fail due to
keryx market cap less than 300 million. a 10% (average market correction)
drop in a 310 million company would bring to 280 which based on your theory
nullifies the company from success. as small biotechs have broarder that 10%
swings my market moves alone your theory holds no water
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:18 farboo
1:19 adam feuerstein: but i also said that companies with market caps
between $300M and $1B had just an 18% success rate in phase III trials,
according to the database of studies we examined.
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:19 adam feuerstein
1:19 [Comment From Laurie Laurie : ]
stock price still well below Martin's antics -- why isn't institutional
buying greater since acceptance with lymphoseek? Does the stock just need
more time to "settle" since the news?
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:19 Laurie
1:20 adam feuerstein: NEOP is an under-covered stock. I gotta tell you,
most institutional investors i speak with regularly know nothing about it.
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:20 adam feuerstein
1:20 adam feuerstein: also, significant questions remain about the
commercial potential for lymphoseek.
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:20 adam feuerstein
1:21 [Comment From Laurie Laurie : ]
even with cardinal health involvement
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:21 Laurie
1:21 adam feuerstein: NEOP's partnership with Cardinal is a plus, but will
doctors flock to lymphoseek or continue to use cheaper radiolabeled colloids
? i don't know the answer.
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:21 adam feuerstein
1:22 [Comment From farboo farboo : ]
so only the big 8 pharma companies ever achieve success. Your theory on
persofine is garbage and you know it, just admit it. persofine might fail
but not on the merits you mention.
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:22 farboo
1:23 adam feuerstein: the list of successful developers of cancer drug is
broader than 8. i'm not going to convince you that my theory has merit. i
think KERX is an interesting test case, so we'll see what happens.
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:23 adam feuerstein
1:23 [Comment From Pepe Pepe : ]
Is there any company in the biotech space that doesn't stink?
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:23 Pepe
1:24 adam feuerstein: ALXN CELG BIIB
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:24 adam feuerstein
1:24 [Comment From BuggyFunBunny BuggyFunBunny : ]
VRML was the last micro to make it?
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:24 BuggyFunBunny
1:25 adam feuerstein: diagnostic, so different. and look what happened
after the launched. kaboooom!
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:25 adam feuerstein
1:25 [Comment From ItzMe ItzMe : ]
I've been wanting to get into ALXN but dunno if it is fairvalued or
overvalued. I do its not undervalued :P
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:25 ItzMe
1:26 adam feuerstein: no, probably not undervalued, but ALXN did beat and
raise today -- again.
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:26 adam feuerstein
1:26 [Comment From snsslvr snsslvr : ]
blue horeshoe loves sunesis
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:26 snsslvr
1:26 adam feuerstein: blue horseshoe -- meet hand grenade
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:26 adam feuerstein
1:26 [Comment From TrustGus TrustGus : ]
Do you see any upside with AEN>=?
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:26 TrustGus
1:26 adam feuerstein: no, but i look forward to the infomercials.
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:26 adam feuerstein
1:27 [Comment From : ]
Adam CXM?
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:27
1:27 adam feuerstein: I'm getting a lot of questions today about CXM but i
don't know it. sorry.
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:27 adam feuerstein
1:27 [Comment From Craig Craig : ]
Thanks for having the chat, Adam. Keep up the good work. (And no question
about KERX from me.... sounds like some bagholders are carrying it a bit too
heavy).
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:27 Craig
1:27 [Comment From BuggyFunBunny BuggyFunBunny : ]
any sub $1 companies with science impresses you? or are they all scams?
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:27 BuggyFunBunny
1:28 adam feuerstein: it's really tough to impress with a sub $1 stock.
Name some for me.
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:28 adam feuerstein
1:28 [Comment From Guest Guest : ]
How about carfilzomib's accelerated approval?
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:28 Guest
1:29 adam feuerstein: I lean towards yes, ONXX's carfilzomib will receive
accelerated approval. I acknowledge that many people believe otherwise.
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:29 adam feuerstein
1:29 [Comment From rt rt : ]
asked earlier. RNN??? sub $1
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:29 rt
1:29 adam feuerstein: blech
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:29 adam feuerstein
1:29 [Comment From Jerry Markham Jerry Markham : ]
what about biosante, bpax
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:29 Jerry Markham
1:29 adam feuerstein: We talked a lot about BPAX during the Sept. chat. not
gonna rehash here.
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:29 adam feuerstein
1:29 [Comment From : ]
Avnr? Still a failure in your eyes?
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:29
1:30 adam feuerstein: not failure but surely disappointing. expectations
for Q3 so low that AVNR should be meet.
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:30 adam feuerstein
1:30 adam feuerstein: alright folks. time to go.
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:30 adam feuerstein
1:31 adam feuerstein: Our 90 minutes are done. I need to write the Mailbag
for tomorrow.
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:31 adam feuerstein
1:31 adam feuerstein: Thanks so much for logging in. It's been fun. Max
says "woof" which translated means, "You guys are great!"
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:31 adam feuerstein
1:32 adam feuerstein: The next live chat will be Nov. 17
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:32 adam feuerstein
1:32 [Comment From Wetterhorn Wetterhorn : ]
great job today adam, thanks
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:32 Wetterhorn
1:32 adam feuerstein: thank you. much appreciated.
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:32 adam feuerstein
1:32 adam feuerstein: sorry, if i didn't get to your questions. Feel free
to send them to me a*************[email protected]
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:32 adam feuerstein
1:32 adam feuerstein: or follow me on twitter @adamfeuerstein
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:32 adam feuerstein
1:33 [Comment From Snoopo from Germany Snoopo from Germany : ]
Thanks again Adam!! 'Til next time.... Greetings from Germany.
Thursday October 20, 2011 1:33 Snoopo from Germany
1:33 adam feuerstein: have a great day, folks. Thanks again. |
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