b******1
发帖数: 1116 | 1 Department of State predicts EB-5 visa retrogression for China
Greenberg Traurig LLP
Dillon R. Colucci
USA
January 13 2014
Author page »
Based upon the demand for EB-5 visa numbers and the volume of approved I-526
Petitions, the Department of State has issued a preliminary warning that a
cut-off date may need to be established for China. No other countries in the
EB-5 category will be impacted. If a cut-off date is established, it will
not take effect until sometime after July 2014. This wi... 阅读全帖 |
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a*****8
发帖数: 261 | 2 公司律师发了信， PD back to 08/15/2007
米国真是个 Wang BD...
Executive Summary
A senior State Department official has confirmed that the EB-2 cut-off date
for mainland China and India will retrogress to August 15, 2007 in the May
Visa Bulletin, which is expected early next month.
The EB-2 priority date cut-off for mainland China and India will retrogress
to August 15, 2007 in May of this year, according to Charles Oppenheim, the
senior State Department official responsible for visa control. The new cut-
off ... 阅读全帖 |
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h*******g
发帖数: 205 | 3 刚收到的，Fregoman 昨晚10点多发的，供参考。
TNND可能要倒退到2007年8月。移民局这帮人知道办不了还让大家叫材料，估计是财政
紧张缺钱了。
Bless all.
EB-2 priority date cut-offs for India and China are expected to retrogress
to August 2007 as early as May or June, according to Charles Oppenheim, the
State Department official responsible for the monthly Visa Bulletin. Exact
cut-off dates are not yet known and will not be revealed until at least
early April, when the State Department will issue the Visa Bulletin for May.
Cut-off dates could retrogress even ... 阅读全帖 |
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r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 4 Yesterday I talked to my attorney about the possible PD retrogression in
October, he believes the China EB2 PD in October will not retrogress at all.
India will retrogress. He believes China EB2 will move forward instead.
All his analysis has one assumption: the spillover can eliminate all the EB2
demand in this summer. He has several reasons for his judgement.
1. There are not too many China EB2 PWMB demand before July 2007, totally
around 1000 maximum.
2. Out of these 1000 maximum PWMB demand,... 阅读全帖 |
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b*********n
发帖数: 2975 | 5 sounds reasonable, however, it really depends on if Mr.O is also reasonable
Yesterday I talked to my attorney about the possible PD retrogression in
October, he believes the China EB2 PD in October will not retrogress at all.
India will retrogress. He believes China EB2 will move forward instead.
All his analysis has one assumption: the spillover can eliminate all the EB2
demand in this summer. He has several reasons for his judgement.
1. There are not too many China EB2 PWMB demand before July... 阅读全帖 |
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r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 6 No, EB2 PD will move forward for sure!
But my attorney thinks that China EB2 PD may stay to the date after jump,
not retrogress.
If they retrogress PD to May 2007, China EB2 approvable cases will be much
less than 800, which is the quarter limit.
Out of the 1000 PWMB, maximum 200 of them can be ready for approval in
October. There is no way to consume of own quota if they retrogress.
But Mr.O is a crazy man. We can not predict him at all. |
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u***s
发帖数: 591 | 7 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
bighead2 (bighead) 于 (Sun Dec 24 09:31:20 2006) 提到:
Hi, Friends,
Currently there is EB retrogression for many Mainland born Greencard
applicants, since there is huge amount of Labor Certificate cases came out
of BEC centers, the retrogression is only get worse in the coming years.
Although for EB2 based cases, the I485 cutoff date is April 2005 right now,
but it has not moved for almost 4 months. EB3's situation is much worse.
Currently our Indian cou |
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z***n
发帖数: 590 | 8 Just got this from my attorney:;
USCIS: RUMORS OF EARLY VISA RETROGRESSION
June 28, 2007
Late Wednesday, rumors emerged that the USCIS may attempt to
retrogress the July immigrant visa numbers early in July and reject I-
485 (adjustment of status) applications filed early in the month. USCIS
has taken such action already with respect to the “other worker” visa
category involving non-professional workers.
Visa availability is based on the U.S. Department of State Visa Bulletin,
which is published |
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M****a
发帖数: 11261 | 9 I believe there will be retrogression, and the retrogression is like this (
probably nonsense to many people though):
Suppose the old name check pool has 20 already, and every month they put in
10 extra and have 5 out. USCIS can only add in new guys only when the pool
contains
less than 50. Then for the first month, they can take new apps, so does the
second, the third, the fourth, fifth and sixth month, and until then they
can move every two months.
Now they take in 120 (from the whole year). S |
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m******t
发帖数: 4077 | 10 http://murthy.com/nflash/nf_12eb2p.html
NewsFlash! DOS Issues EB2 Cutoff Projections
Posted 16.Mar.2012
The Department of State (DOS) advised today that the EB2 India and China
category is likely to retrogress in the May or June 2012 Visa Bulletin.
Charles Oppenheim, Chief, Visa Control and Reporting, provided this
information at an AILA conference on March 16, 2012. Mr. Oppenheim projected
that it will become necessary to retrogress the EB2 date back to
approximately August 2007.
The EB2 cutoff... 阅读全帖 |
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f**********y
发帖数: 127 | 11 昨天听个哥们说，485一旦到了"initial review"状态，即便retrogress了。
retrogress也不会影响到"initial review"状态的485。485会继续处理，直到批准。
这种说法正确吗？
谢谢 |
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p****a
发帖数: 145 | 12 PD是2013年11月，在考虑要不要降级到EB3，还是等一等EB2。
请教一下降级的风险是不是这样：
如果在等待140和485的批准过程中EB3倒退了，我就必须等着EB3再前进或者relink到
EB2？而这个等待批准的过程一般有半年或更长，所以期间retrogression的风险还是很
有一些的？
另外，如果EB3的140不能办PP的情况下是不是要额外多等好几个月？我担心PP会受到移
民局规则或者公司政策的限制。
目前公司的人事部门还有律师说不支持作relink,所以担心EB3出现retrogression的话
岂不是有些风险。这样是不是等几个月EB2更安全？好像relink时候有可能需要公司签
个表-不只是钱的问题？ |
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m****i
发帖数: 27 | 13 My 130 was approved, and my PD is current (F2A) in December Visa Bulletin. I
submit I-485 last week. But I just found that the new Januruary 2011 VB
shows F2A retrogress for 2 years, then my PD will not be current. Is that a
problem for my 485? Will I still be able to get it? |
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c**s
发帖数: 3796 | 14 If not retrogress in October, aug/sep VB will be small movement. |
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c**s
发帖数: 3796 | 15 sorry. I haven't read it carefully.
if sep VB is Q1/Q2 2008, the OCT VB must retrogress. |
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r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 16 My personal opinion is that China EB2 should never have had retrogression in the
first place! Mr.O never understood the law until the 2007 event. If the
horizontal spillover were in place before 2007, we should have never waited
for so long!
The reason why we are seeing the huge number of China EB2 demand is that Mr.
O assigned the visa numbers in a random sequence before 2007. They assigned
17k visas to India EB3 in 2007 and 12k in 2005.
Why assigned so many to EB3 Indians in 2007? Because Mr.O... 阅读全帖 |
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r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 17 yes, India and China together have a huge demand, but Chinese demand is not
high!
Even for India, the approvable cases will be small. Although the true
monthly demand between july 2007 and 2008 is 1500-2000 for India and 300-400 for
China, the approvalble cases are much smaller than these two numbers.
For India, they will retrogress not because of the new cases, but because of
the porting from eb3-eb2. Their 485 have been reviewed and ready for
approval immediately. For the new cases, I don't t... 阅读全帖 |
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e******e
发帖数: 10121 | 18 good!
only October, how about November, December, 01/2012,02/2012.... until my PD:)
Hope never retrogress, bless! |
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r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 19 The whole purpose of this topic was to prove that the demand in this winter
is lower than my original estimation.
There won't be too many approvable cases in Q1 of FY 2012. It does not make
any difference if they retrogress the PD or not.
Very few people can be processed in Q1 of FY 2012. Most of the PWMB cases
will be approved in this December of next spring.
2
Dec |
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a******e
发帖数: 36306 | 20 O left enough space for the current cases to be approved this FY, so there
won't be another unexpected surprise - retrogress this October and VB will
advance steadily from then on.
sanges are angry, but IV is for both EB2I and EB3I, so they won't do
anything eventually. as for old centers, nothing will happen, except for
more vicious greetings to O and his family, either...
an bah |
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a*******d
发帖数: 4846 | 21 http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/898358121
EB3 Row and EB3 India China Everybody is suffering because of EB2 India.
Spillovers in tune of 20K Per year from all Categories are flowing to EB2.
EB2-ROW is not consuming any visa numbers. Eb2 India eats that too. If EB3
gets at least any of those 20K Spillovers, that would be a big relief to EB3
, but EB2 I is getting greedy and eating out the entire visa numbers. EB2
India is the largest receipants in ay of the visa categories. ... 阅读全帖 |
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b******1
发帖数: 1116 | 22 VB February:
"Readers are once again advised that an eventual need to retrogress the cut-
off date is also a distinct possibility"
VB March:
N/A |
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p*****a
发帖数: 3634 | 23 15K - the 485 number in the month retrogression happened would be the EB 485
number.
Assuming other 485 (refugee and asylum) number is constant. |
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t*******e
发帖数: 1511 | 24 If that happens, those eb2 won't get greened either before eb3c retrogresses
dramatically. So basically going down to eb3 doesn't help them at all.
especially for those already having EAD. They will just waste couple of
grands $ and shut down the window for majority of EB3 to be green quick
USCIS is not supposed to allow this if they are not idiots. |
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l*******n
发帖数: 8388 | 25 USCIS 是不是idiots不劳你担心。担心自己是不是就可以了
retrogresses |
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发帖数: 1 | 26 PD: 10/2013 eb23
Spouse 485 RD: 04/25/2017
marriage time:03/2016
My green card has already been approved by 04/28/2017, but my spouse's I485
hasn't been approved due to late submission.
If retrogression happens and the new PD is before my PD (or visa is no long
available this year), will my spouses's case be hold until next time when my
PD is current again please?
Is follow to join case better in this situation?
Thanks! |
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G*******n
发帖数: 2041 | 27 Today Hammond Law Group held a phone conference with its employer-clients:
Retrogression for RNs and PTs. The purpose of the call was to distribute the
latest information to our employer-clients. We are cross-posting the
summary to the blog:
1. The long-term goal is the enactment of a law that takes Schedule A
occupations out of the usual employment-based immigrant quota. This will
likely be accomplished through the enactment of Comprehensive Immigration
Reform (CIR). The House has already intro |
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G*******n
发帖数: 2041 | 28 http://hammondlawgroup.blogspot.com/
Yes!!!! All of the retrogression dates are now current. This is fantastic
news.
The main question that our clients have been asking us is: Why did this
happen? Here is why: The USCIS is authorized by Congress to approve 140,000
employment based immigrant visas per year (including dependents). This year
the CIS (and DOS) are falling far short of those numbers; thus they are
aggressively moving those dates. HLG expects that the dates will stay
current until the |
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f*********n
发帖数: 423 | 29 奥本计划到9月前允许15000个烙印EB2调整身份，看来SO又是全被烙印吃了。下面是律
师的newsletter，见里面第三和第四段。
June Visa Bulletin Shows Retrogression in Family and Employment Categories;
Visa Predictions
The Department of State Visa Bulletin for the month of June brings major
retrogression in the Family 2A Preference, for spouses and unmarried
children under 21 of permanent residents. The F2A priority date will move
back 1.5 years to May 1, 2012 for most of the world, while F2A for Mexico
shows further retrogression to March 15, 2011. T... 阅读全帖 |
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r******r
发帖数: 700 | 30 Key points:
EB2:
* EB-2 China and India will advance significantly over the next few visa
bulletins. A possible slowdown (or retrogression) may come in the summer of
2012.
* It is possible that the December 2011 Visa Bulletin would advance EB-2
India and China to at least March 1, 2008 or even further. Similar forward
movement may be expected in the January 2012 and February 2012 Visa
Bulletins.
* Mr. Oppenheim shared that his goal is to advance the cutoff dates more at
the beginning of the fi... 阅读全帖 |
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m*******l
发帖数: 12782 | 31 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
tangerine612 (tangerinehouse) 于 (Wed Oct 26 23:15:02 2011, 美东) 提到:
Got weekly email form Capitol Immigration Law group
Our office just came back from a discussion session here in Washington, DC
with Charles Oppenheim. Mr. Oppenheim is the Chief of the Visa Control and
Reporting Division at the U.S. Department of State. For many, he is simply
known as the person responsible for the monthly and annual visa number
allocations for family- and employment... 阅读全帖 |
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y**x
发帖数: 379 | 32 from mygcvisa
EB3 Rest of World:
The CO has limited knowledge as to the number of eligible applicants, and
USCIS has encouraged DOS to move the dates forward over the last 5 months.
Demand appears to be increasing, thus, it is unlikely in the short run that
the category will move forward. In fact, if current demand continues,
something may have to be done as early as May 2014 to slow the demand in
this category.
The last quarter of the fiscal year for 2014 does not look good, and no
movement (or... 阅读全帖 |
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t*******y
发帖数: 21396 | 33 阁下脑子出了屎，还有别的么？
http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/414311059/visa-spillover-rules-simplified
Visa Spillover Rules Simplified
This is how it was till last year (before the admin change)
EB4 unused ==> EB1 worldwide
EB5 unused ==> EB1 worldwide
EB1 worldwide unused ==> EB1 retrogressed countries ==> EB2 worldwide & EB3
worldwide
EB3 worldwide ==> EB3 worldwide unused ==> EB3 retrogressed countries
EB2 worldwide ==> EB2 worldwide unused ==> EB2 retrogressed countries
Earlier it wo... 阅读全帖 |
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c*********n
发帖数: 1371 | 34 关于3012
Everyone will benefit....
To answer the question about how it will benefit RoW (or all other countries
except IN and CH), if we look at the EB2 and EB3 visa movements between
2001 and 2004 one will wonder why all the countries were current, for that
long, especially after so many H-1B professionals that came in around dot.
com boom and y2k and H1B quota was also increased between 1999 to 2003 (upto
195,000 visa) back then. The answer is AC-21 (the American Competitiveness
in the 21st Cent... 阅读全帖 |
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t**********2
发帖数: 71 | 35 Got weekly email form Capitol Immigration Law group
Our office just came back from a discussion session here in Washington, DC
with Charles Oppenheim. Mr. Oppenheim is the Chief of the Visa Control and
Reporting Division at the U.S. Department of State. For many, he is simply
known as the person responsible for the monthly and annual visa number
allocations for family- and employment-based green cards. He is also the
person who prepares and publishes the monthly visa bulletin which is highly
... 阅读全帖 |
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s*******e
发帖数: 629 | 36 United States: Visa Office Predicts Significant Movement For EB-2 India &
China; But EB-3 India Stuck In Neutral
05 November 2011
Article by Valentine A. Brown
Last week, Charles Oppenheim, the man behind the mysterious Visa Bulletin
curtain, also known as Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division of
the Department of State, made some significant predictions regarding
priority date movement in the coming months.
The best news came for Indian and Chinese nationals in the EB-2 category.
Fo... 阅读全帖 |
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l********h
发帖数: 21 | 37 EB2-India & China Movement
http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2012/01/visa-bulletin-feb
Statement in Visa bulletin clearly tells that so far (i.e. 6th January 2012)
upto third business day of January visa bulletin, rate of filings is very
low and hence in order to ensure that enough demand is available for USCIS
to process during spillover season for FY 2012, dates had moved rapidly.
Few things that can inferred from above statement is that filing upto
December Visa Bulletin from October 2011... 阅读全帖 |
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g*****n
发帖数: 57 | 38 DOS Predictions: FB2A to Move Forward, EB2 India to Retrogress
July 15, 2014
The American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA) has announced that it
will now begin to issue a report each month intended to provide reliable
predictions and analysis regarding the movement of cutoff dates in the visa
bulletin. These reports will be based on discussions with Charles Oppenheim,
Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division, U.S. Department of State
(DOS), following the release of each month's vis... 阅读全帖 |
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c*********2
发帖数: 2752 | 39 basically -
eb2 for fiscal year 2015, forward 3-5 weeks each month, didn't mention 放水。
eb3 放水again， eb2如果降级多， 会导致eb3大副后退 AGAIN。
USCIS Visa Bulletin Prediction For Fiscal Year 2015
The American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA) recently met again with
Charles Oppenheim to discuss the current demand and expected movements in
various visa bulletin categories.
Charles Oppenheim is the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division
within Department of State (DOS).
Please see the important det... 阅读全帖 |
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c*********2
发帖数: 2752 | 40 basically -
eb2 for fiscal year 2015, forward 3-5 weeks each month, didn't mention 放水。
eb3 放水again， eb2如果降级多， 会导致eb3大副后退 AGAIN。
USCIS Visa Bulletin Prediction For Fiscal Year 2015
The American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA) recently met again with
Charles Oppenheim to discuss the current demand and expected movements in
various visa bulletin categories.
Charles Oppenheim is the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division
within Department of State (DOS).
Please see the important det... 阅读全帖 |
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C********r
发帖数: 256 | 41 也可能我的理解不大对
QD从来不retrogress，所以造成第一次的VB出错，那也就是说这个错的QD不是第一次出
现/使用，如果是第一次（比九月的QD还前进了），那跟retrogress就没关系了，那么
就是说有CP的人已经按这个日期得到过通知，真的么？得到的请举手
QD从来不retrogress，因为通知都发了，所以little disadvantage。问题是
retrogression影响的不是已经交了485或得到通知的那一部分人，而是之后的人，那部
分CP本来不需要做什么了，因为已经retrogress了，现在还会得到通知（因为QD没
retrogress），准备材料？体检一样会过期啊
另关于体检有效期
http://www.uscis.gov/news/alerts/uscis-issues-new-policy-form-i
看起来好像是两年（一年内必须交，交后一年有效），对中国人这次，可能影响不大，
印度人就另一回事了 |
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A****e
发帖数: 382 | 42 刚才又看了一下以往的Visa Bulletin，特别是section D。鳌拜特别在这里注明一些东
西，可以发现一些蛛丝马迹：
May 2012:
D. RETROGRESSION OF THE CHINA-MAINLAND AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT SECOND
PREFERENCE CUT-OFF DATE
Due to the rapid forward movement of the cut-off date, demand for China and
India Employment Second preference numbers has increased dramatically during
recent months, and at a much faster rate than had been expected. Therefore
, it has been necessary to retrogress that cut-off date to August 15, 2007
in an attempt to hold number u... 阅读全帖 |
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F*********n
发帖数: 2914 | 43 他们6月的排期还是2004年11月。这靠谱吗？如果是真的，我们还在蜗牛爬，那太不公
平了。
http://myimmigrationlawyer.blogspot.com/2014/05/visa-bulletin-p
Visa Bulletin Predictions by State Department's Charlie Oppenheim
On Monday April 21, 2014 Mr. Charlie Oppenheim of the Department of State's
Visa Office (VO) spoke to AILA members about his impressions as to the
future movements of the immigrant visa bulletin. The State Department
controls visa number allocations and Mr. Oppenheim's office is responsible
for the publication of the mont... 阅读全帖 |
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y******0
发帖数: 8807 | 44 EB-2 and EB-3 China.
Recently, number usage for EB-3 China has exploded due to the EB-3 downgrade
effect that Charlie has been expecting. Although anticipated, there was no
advance warning as to when this demand would materialize, to what extent, or
for how long. Demand for EB-3 China numbers exceeded 400 in March alone. EB
-2 China spiked to 850 in March. April demand in both categories is expected
to be at least on par with March demand, and may possibly exceed it. As a
result, it would most l... 阅读全帖 |
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y******0
发帖数: 8807 | 45 Visa Bulletin Predictions and Updates from Charles Oppenheim (May 18, 2016)
Our office just came back from a discussion session here in Washington, DC
with Charles Oppenheim. Mr. Oppenheim is the Chief of the Visa Control and
Reporting Division at the U.S. Department of State. For many, he is simply
known as the person responsible for the monthly and annual visa number
allocations for family- and employment-based green cards. He is also the
person who prepares and publishes the monthly visa bull... 阅读全帖 |
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y******0
发帖数: 8807 | 46 June Visa Bulletin: Explanations for Retrogression
另外一个版本：
May 19, 2016
The U.S. Department of State (DOS) provides a monthly visa bulletin "check
in" with Charles Oppenheim, Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division
. The most recent check in provides insights into some of the unexpected
developments in the June 2016 Visa Bulletin, as well as some predictions for
upcoming visa bulletins. The cutoff dates discussed below are all from the
final action (FA) chart. The U.S. Citizenship and I... 阅读全帖 |
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d******8
发帖数: 1972 | 47 Understanding Visa Bulletin Cut-Off Date Determination
http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/05/understanding-visa-bulletin-cut-off.html
The State Department (DOS) is responsible for the allocation of numerically
limited immigrant visa numbers under the authority granted by section 203 of
the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA). These visa numbers are allocated
based on congressionally mandated preferences that assign an overall total,
limits for each category and per country limits withi... 阅读全帖 |
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f****l
发帖数: 8042 | 48 关键还是这句话 Mr. Oppenheim cautioned, however, that if there is high
demand (number of filings) in the EB-2 category, he may hold or even
retrogress towards the summer of 2012.
Visa Bulletin Predictions and Updates from Charles Oppenheim (October 26,
2011)
Our office just came back from a discussion session here in Washington, DC
with Charles Oppenheim.
We are asked on a daily basis by our clients to provide visa bulletin
predictions and when a particular priority date may become current. As a
res... 阅读全帖 |
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m******g
发帖数: 3667 | 49 Presently we feel dates will move ahead for next bulletin but slowly.
Expected movement can be anywhere from 2-5 months. Our attorney friend also
feels movement will continue until April 2012.
As per Mr. Oppenheim, "Readers are once again advised that an eventual need
to retrogress the cut-off date is also a distinct possibility." That
eventual need will be seen around May 2012 visa bulletin i.e. in April.
2012 Dates will retrogress at some point but level of retrogression is
difficult to deter... 阅读全帖 |
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r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 50 From Q's blog:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Prediction
Employment-based priority dates will advance again with the March Visa
Bulletin, likely by at least a few months. An advance of six months is
possible, although an advance of one year is not likely. He will know as
this month moves on. With normal USCIS adjustment of status processing times
of four-to-six months, March is the last time for Mr. Oppenheim to get the
AOS cases filed and possibly approved in FY2012. He wi... 阅读全帖 |
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